Thursday, August 16, 2012
Some movement to the upside today as the Dow gained 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Very overbought both short and medium term for the stock indices. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but some pullback should occur soon. No reason for todays move but we can use expiration week and a falling US dollar as excuses. The summer rally continues but the volume has been light and we never trust light volume rallies. GE was up a bit again on light volume. Stalling at the 21 dollar level here. If we get through 21 we should move higher since it is the resistance on the weekly chart. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was higher by $12 on the futures with a weaker US dollar. The XAU rose 5 points. The continuing relative strength of the gold shares vs. gold itself remains a positive going forward. ABX gained 1 1/3, GG up by 1 3/4 and NEM rose a buck. Volume continues to be underwhelming here. My October ABX calls have moved into the black. ABX is pretty overbought at the moment. I'm thinking of dumping the calls and trying to buy them back but I'll continue to hold them for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. We're almost to the resistance of 1420 on the S&P 500. The market has the feel as though we are going to break through that level. Might need to back and fill first. There hasn't been any negative headlines out of Europe for a while but that could happen at any time. We'll get through expiration tomorrow and go from there. The gold shares are acting better but gold itself is still in a sideways channel. If we can get gold to break out of the channel to the upside then the gold shares will continue higher in my opinion. That is probably just stating the obvious. We'll see about the option expiration and go from there.