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Friday, October 27, 2006

The Dow actually went down 73 points today on average volume. This is the first legitimate down day in quite some time. Advance/declines were negative. Does it mean anything? Probably not but we'll see. GDP came in weaker than expected. So the so-called soft landing now is suspect. I've given my economic forecast before. Inverted yield curve will lead to a recession and the tip-off will be when copper goes below $3. That's my guess. Gold was up a buck to around $600 but the XAU was down a point. The dollar was weaker here too. I adjusted the NEM trade down a notch but left the order open. Both ABX and NEM were down on average volume. I'm still sticking with the higher price theory here. Earnings for both on Thursday. I don't like the fact that the technicals are at the high end of the range but that could be worked off early next week. Honestly, you never know how the market will react to the earnings. But the way the open interest expanded for NEM, that will probably be the play. Hopefully there will be a sell-off there early next week for portfolio adjustment but that is just a hope. Mentally I'm feeling good and am ready for the next trade. Perhaps there will be a chance to eventually short this thing in November after all. But that's a dicey proposition at this point. For now it's the weekend and time to take a break...

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