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Friday, September 15, 2006

The Dow gained 33 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX puts have lost some value. The inflation data came in as expected. We opened higher and stayed there all day. I am disappointed that I did not get a better price for the puts that I bought. I could have really saved some money there. Perhaps I was a bit anxious. I still feel that this trade will be a winner. We remain overbought but as each day passes the chance of a downturn increases in my opinion. There are divergences or potential divergences. We'll see what happens next week. As always, the market will do what it wants. However I think the second half of September will be weaker. I also think earnings pre-announcements in the beginning of October will send the markets lower. Time will tell. Gold lost a few bucks today and the XAU gained a point and a half. Volume was very heavy there in the gold shares. Are we at a bottom there? I don't know. I will need to check the charts over the weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired. I am almost caught up on my readings. I am trying to remain objective about this trade. If we continue strong to the upside I will have to get out and take the loss. There is an extra week on these options, which I've mentioned before. That should keep the premium high. Again, I think this weeks action to the upside was more option related than anything else and next week will be the key. Fed announcement on Wednesday and we will take it from there.

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