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Monday, September 11, 2006

The Dow gained 4 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm still looking to purchase OEX puts for October. We should get some type of rally here in the next couple of sessions because we are short term oversold. I am aiming for Wednesday to buy some puts. But it may not happen if we just start to fall from here. Hard to say. My mind is pretty much made up on this one though. Some data out this week and it is an expiration week. Inflation news on Friday. I hope to own the puts before then. Trying not to get too ahead of myself though. Gold lost over $20 today and the XAU got hammered, down almost 10 points. Buying puts there would have been a great trade. I don't know what that market is trying to say. Higher interest rates maybe, since it's been tied to the dollar for a while now. No inflation, as it used to be a proxy for that. Or perhaps just dollar strength to be seen ahead? It's anybodies guess, really. The XAU is at critical support here at 130. If that doesn't hold, 100 is the next stop. But really, the next trade is the OEX. Mentally I'm just trying to keep it together and not get too excited because nothing has really happened yet. The market could also do a fake-out and go higher here to new highs for the move. It isn't easy. But the warning signs are in place. It is time to get short I believe. We'll see what happens...

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