A relief short covering rally today as the Dow gained 211 points to finish off a wild week.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was light.  The China stock market snap back along with the potential Greek deal were the reasons given today for the rise.  We'll take what we can get.  Perhaps we'll know by Monday if the Greek deal is for real but that saga won't all of a sudden go away.  As for China, half the stocks on their exchange aren't even open for trading.  But considering the US market price action yesterday, today was encouraging.  But we're still in the headline risk situation.  I'd like to think that we are putting in a bottom here at the 200 day moving average.  Perhaps the summation index can start to move higher again but until it actually does, we don't have the all clear just yet.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light.  Looks like I'll be holding on to the GE July calls until the earnings are out in a week.  They are still showing a loss.  Gold bounced around today but finished the session little changed despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  The gold shares remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  I'm still looking at the October calls for the precious metal shares.  I may start placing my order next week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This was quite a crazy week in the markets.  Back and forth we went with volatility in the forefront.  However where we go from here is what matters most.  Option expiration week is coming up but I'm not sure the usual positive bias will appear.  Plenty of economic data is on the agenda along with Yellen chattering in front of Congress.  Not to mention the ongoing global concerns that plague the environment at the moment.  So attempting to trade the SPY next week will be treacherous.  I will probably have to wait until things calm down and we get a valid technical set up.  I think that we will be moving higher next week but that is strictly a guess.  Obviously, anything could happen.  We'll once again have to follow the headlines over the weekend.  Gold and the gold shares remain mired in a downtrend.  The fundamentals are negative.  There is no interest there.  The time to buy things is when nobody else wants them.  We are certainly at that stage with the precious metals complex.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to determine if now is the time.  Otherwise I'll most likely be holding the GE July calls until the earnings on Friday and staying out of any SPY July trades next week.  Plenty to ponder this weekend.  It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a rest. 

Another volatile trading session as the Dow started the day up well over 200 points only to give most of it back and finish with a gain of only 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The price action today isn't a positive.  So now this Sunday is the next last chance for Greece to stay in the euro.  But that could change as it has already in the past and the effect is that markets are still being held hostage.  I almost want to say that you can throw the technicals out the window in this type of game.  The short term indicators have rolled back to oversold and staying there.  It appears the path of least resistance is lower.  GE added 1/8 on average volume.  We were much higher early here as well.  My GE July calls are still losers.  Gold didn't do much today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX were mixed with slight fractional moves.  Volume was light.  Oversold and staying that way as well here.  This condition is what I'm afraid might plague the major stock indices for some time.  I'm still on the hunt for the October gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be lower for the stock indexes ahead of the Sunday headline about the Greek drama.  This is getting to be like a broken record.  Eventually this will be out of the way but we aren't there yet.  Remain cautious and once again the sidelines aren't necessarily a bad place to be.  I'm still holding the GE July calls but I am certainly not confident that this trade will work itself out.  Getting close and going through the zero line on the summation index has once again proven to be a traumatic event.  We aren't finished yet.  Rallies are not holding and we continue to lower levels.  The market will be a buy at some point but we haven't found that area yet.  It is still a headline driven environment.  Silver has made a 2 day comeback after breaking down from the consolidation zone.  It's something to keep an eye on.  SSEC had a nice gain yesterday but we will have to see if it was just a one day wonder.  ABX looks like it's heading to $10 and I've got my eye on the October calls there.  There is plenty to pay attention to this summer.  No doldrums in July, that is for sure.  So we'll see what comes out of the foreign arena tonight and close out a crazy market week tomorrow.

Crazy summer days as the NYSE had to shut down for 3 hours today because of a computer glitch.  This is the world that we live in.  Whatever we did yesterday was effectively erased as the Dow fell 261 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term technicals have turned back down for the major stock indices.  Greece, China and now the US are all causing problems.  I'm beginning to believe that we are at a point where the market is about to crack.  The US market has held up well despite the troubles around the world.  But after today, you can't say that anymore.  Throw in the proximity to the summation index zero line and it's a recipe for trouble.  I could be wrong.  GE was off almost 60 cents on average volume.  The uptrend line form January on the daily candlestick chart has been decisively broken.  My GE July calls are now losers.  This looks like it will be a cut the loss trade unless there is a dramatic turnaround soon.  But that is highly doubtful with this market environment.  Waiting another week for the earnings is probably not a good idea.  Gold rose about $10 today on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume today.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Yesterdays market action gave some hopes for the bulls but today that has been wiped out.  I do not see anything that would change the bearish scenario in the short term.  Caution is advised and the sidelines isn't a bad place to be.  It is looking like a worldwide sell off of stocks and commodities.  A universal margin call if you will.  We'll know when it's over when we get some type of panic sell off.  Hasn't happened yet.  The Fed minutes were a non event today, so you know we're not in the normal market circumstances.  The safe havens of gold and the US dollar are not attracting money like they usually do.  So it is a dangerous time to be playing this game as usual.  No summer doldrums so far for this year.  We'll keep an eye on all the headlines tonight and see what kind of surprises we get tomorrow.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow gained 93 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were off 200 points within the first couple hours of trading today.  It was quite an impressive comeback.  Perhaps we now have an all clear for some more upside but the Greek drama remains.  Greece now has until Sunday to work out a deal.  Except nobody knows how that is going to happen.  The TRAN turned around today and the small stocks did as well.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back to the upside.  But we are still in a headline driven environment.  GE turned around as well and was up 16 cents on OK volume.  The GE July calls that I purchased yesterday now have a slight gain.  Gold was off over $15 today and we dropped below the important $1150 level at one point.  The US dollar had a good session but did come off of its highs.  Commodities in general took a hit today.  The XAU fell 3 points and GDX lost 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Silver broke support today and could be leading the precious metals complex lower.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls but will have to careful here because we could be in for a washout to the downside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see if the stock indices can build on the todays turnaround.  We've got the Feds beige book tomorrow as maybe Greece can stay in the background for  few days.  Doubtful, but we'll see.  We also have the Chinese stock market falling apart as well.  Todays price action should lead to higher prices in the near term though.  But the market will go where it wants.  8 days left in the July option cycle.  We will have to see what the summation index has to say.  I don't think todays action turned it back up yet.  But the market turnaround was encouraging.  Gold needs to hold on here or we could be heading much lower.  That's a guess as usual but with the breakdown in silver today, gold probably isn't too far behind.  We will keep an eye on things there.  We'll see what happens overseas tonight and take it from there.

Another day, another Greek sell off as the Dow fell 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were not quite 2 to 1 negative.  We sold off hard on the open, with an over 150 point loss but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  We spent the rest of the session coming back.  The summation index continues lower.  Markets around the globe sold off on the Greek referendum results.  It's still a headline driven market.  However given the uncertainties, the market held up rather well.  Perhaps the market knows more than we do.  I'm not trying any SPY trades here.  GE dropped almost 1/2 on light volume.  I did place an order for the GE July calls and it was filled.  So we'll see what happens.  The relative strength for GE today was poor.  But I have liked this technical set up for a while and today finally have entered the next trade.  I may hold on until the earnings due on expiration Friday.  Unless this thing tanks and then I'll have to take the loss.  Gold rose $6 and the US dollar was a bit higher today.  Not exactly a huge flight to safety.  The gold shares found some life again as the XAU rose 7/8 and GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was average.  ABX had a strong session on better volume.  I'm not going to chase the gold shares here.  But it is possible that we have put in the bottom.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we continue with the Greek drama and what will happen tomorrow?  It is really impossible to predict what will happen.  The way the stock market has held up though perhaps means that things will be getting better for prices before they get worse.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically the major stock indices remain oversold on a short term basis.  Staying on the sidelines is an option and perhaps the best strategy at the moment.  We are still in a zone where things could fall apart.  I am trying the GE trade here but it appears that if it doesn't hold now, the uptrend line in place on the daily chart will be violated.  We just nudged through it today.  So tomorrow it will be important for GE to hang in there.  Gold and the dollar did not react as strongly as one would suspect today.  Perhaps the theory of Grexit has already been priced in.  But tomorrow could be another story.  We'll see how the foreign markets do overnight and await the next headline from Europe.       

Really just a waiting game today as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The employment report came in about where expected and wasn't a market event as it usually is.  The stock indices are still being held hostage by Greece.  The vote there supposedly on whether or not to stay in the euro is Sunday.  And then what?  How long will it take to count the votes and there still has to be some kind of deal on the debt situation there regardless of the vote.  I took the cautious approach and did not make any trades before the long weekend here.  We are still short term oversold on the major stock indexes.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Two weeks to go in the July option cycle with earnings due on expiration Friday.  I still like the technical set up here and will get some calls if the price of GE hits the uptrend line on the daily chart at around 26.50.  Gold fell $5 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit lower.  The gold shares found some buyers though.  The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  This is the first time in a while that we have seen the gold shares outperform gold.  I'm still a fan of the ABX October gold share calls.  But it is possible that GDX may be the safer play if there is such a thing.  Something to think about.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I really think that the market is going to head higher from here regardless of the Greek drama.  We're oversold and due for a summer rally to start.  Plus the summation index appears to possibly be putting in a double bottom here near the zero line.  That would mean the imminent collapse that I thought would occur at the beginning of the week isn't going to happen.  I think that the fact that we saw absolutely no downside follow through from a down 350 market tells us so.  I could be wrong.  I think that next week I'll be looking to purchase some GE calls and perhaps the ABX calls as well.  The market will still be at the mercy of headline risk.  But the news could very well be viewed as positive and a relief rally with short covering could ensue.  That is really the scenario that I think will happen.  If traders wanted to sell they probably did it before this holiday weekend.  That's my best guess at the moment.  There isn't a lot of economic data due next week.  Not that it matters in an event driven environment like this.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend along with watching the headlines out of Europe.  It's a long summertime holiday weekend.  Time for a break.   

We started the month off with a nice gain as the Dow rose 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower but could turn around with a positive day tomorrow.  It is beginning to look like Mondays decline was a one day wonder.  The market is shrugging off the turmoil in Greece.  Anything can happen with the vote in Greece over the weekend but it looks like the market has other things on its mind.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to turn up from the oversold region.  GE gained almost a dime on average volume.  I did place another overnight order for the July calls but it wasn't filled.  I still think that I'm going to attempt this trade in the next couple of weeks if the option premiums get to where I'd like them.  The technical set up remains intact.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar had another good day.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares appear to be breaking down here and that can't be good for gold.  But I'd still like to try the ABX October calls at some point here in July.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm getting the feeling that the market is going to go higher here.  A 350 point loss with no follow through is not common.  If we break down tomorrow, then this idea is wrong.  But I can see a scenario where the Greek vote is to stay in the euro and the markets rally on Monday.  We'll have to get through the employment report first though.  So we'll see how the market does tomorrow and decide what to do from there.  The employment report could have an effect on gold as well.  A good number should help the US dollar and therefore depress gold.  Or vice versa depending on the data.  But I must say that things are not looking good for the precious metals and the fundamentals remain bearish.  Then why attempt a trade with the calls?  Things do not stay down forever but more importantly the gold shares are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The probability of some type of advance form these levels is better than 50% in my opinion.  All we can do is put the odds in our favor because the markets as usual will go where they want.  We'll watch what happens overnight, get the employment report tomorrow and then close out a shortened holiday week.

The market stopped going down today as the Dow gained 23 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The markets are hostage to the Greek drama.  With a potential vote on the euro there not due until Sunday, you get the idea of the situation that we're in.  Oversold and staying there technically for the major market averages.  It is not impossible to trade here but it is a guessing game with the headline effect in play.  You will want to be long at some point but nobody knows when that point will be.  I'll probably not try the SPY July calls at this rate.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  I did place an overnight order for some GE July calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm willing to try the calls here because the technical set up is in place to get long.  What I mean by that is on the weekly charts we had a high volume breakout from a consolidation zone and we are now falling back to test the zone.  It should hold and GE should move higher from there.  Timing is the key as usual.  Gold was off $7 today as the US dollar was higher.  No flight to safety for gold and that is a negative despite being oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The XAU and GDX continue with fractional losses.  Gold, silver and the precious metal shares all are on the verge of breaking down out of their congestion zones on the weekly charts.  I am still considering the ABX October calls though for the seasonal rally trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The question is what to do here and there are no easy answers.  You can only guess which way the Greek vote will go if we get that far.  We also have a long holiday weekend coming up in the US.  The McClellan oscillator was in the area that it has bounced from recently after yesterday.  If today was all the bounce we get, then we're heading lower.  The summation index is passing through the zero line and that's trouble as we have seen.  I'm remaining cautious here and will probably only attempt the GE trade in the next couple of sessions.  Beginning of a new month tomorrow so usually there would be some positive money flows.  But anything goes in this current state of affairs.  The employment report on Friday will only be a sideshow in my opinion.  Yesterday the overnight action was positive and that helped stem the decline.  We'll see how it goes tonight.  Interesting times.

Well, so much for the summer doldrums.  The Dow fell 350 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower and about to go through the zero line.  This area is rarely breached and when it is, the market falls apart.  That is what we have going on here.  Crash is another term folks like to use but it seems events are more controlled these days.  The Greek drama took a turn for the worse.  I'll be the first to say that I did not see that coming.  I figured we would get the usual last minute deal and be done with it.  I also thought that the summation index would turn around before it broke the zero line.  Obviously, I was wrong.  At least I didn't buy any calls last week.  GE was off almost 1/2 on good volume.  I did place a couple orders here for the July calls but they were not filled.  I may try again tomorrow but the risk in getting long anything here is very high.  That said, this could be an opportunity for a decent trade if the timing is correct.  But I must admit in a headline driven market environment, it will be like playing with fire.  Gold could only manage a $5 gain on the futures despite the turmoil and the fact that the US dollar got crushed today as well.  If this is all gold can do in times like these then perhaps not trading gold at all is the correct path going forward.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on summer average volume.  Why both gold and the US dollar didn't have big rallies today is the question.  My thought is that what we are seeing is a worldwide margin call, with players selling whatever they can to cover their exposure.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired after a volatile trading session.  But where do we go from here?  The Greek drama has the markets full attention and it won't be settled for at least a week as of today.  Trading in this atmosphere is dangerous.  If you can get long close to the bottom, you'll do fine.  But nobody knows where the bottom is.  We are oversold and staying there.  I'll be checking the charts tonight but we are in no mans land.  I would still like to try the GE July calls though.  The technical set up is textbook so far but could be negated due to the market unrest.  I probably should have the discipline to just step aside here and let the market settle itself out.  I will most likely attempt this trade in the coming days but not with a lot of money.  However my ideas lately and my take on the market situation have been off the mark lately.  We get the end of the month and quarter tomorrow but it probably won't matter.  Plus the employment report on Friday.  The market is controlled by whatever happens in Europe at the moment.  We'll see if the foreign markets continue lower overnight as we are held hostage by the headlines overseas.

A day of indecision as the Dow gained 56 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  It was a mixed bag as the small stocks were weaker on the day.  That's not a positive.  It appears we have some early end of the month and quarter moves going on.  I did place another order for some SPY July calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm a believer that weakness can be bought on Monday if there is any.  The Greek saga should be settled over the weekend.  We may just rally on the open when the market reconvenes.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  I put in an order for the July calls here as well and wasn't filled.  Perhaps I'll try again next week.  Gold was little changed today but did come off of its lows.  The US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Still no interest here.  I am going to try the ABX October calls at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Earlier in the week I propositioned that Monday would be the ideal time to try the SPY July calls.  Perhaps the market will actually cooperate this time around.  We are not completely oversold on the major averages as the short term technical indicators are merely mid-range.  However one of my other short term tools will be giving a buy signal if we are negative on Monday.  I'll consider my options over the weekend.  A short holiday week coming up with the end of the month and quarter thrown in.  Plus the employment report on Thursday of next week.  So there will be a lot for the market to digest.  The summation index is still heading down but I expect it to turn back up in this area.  I could be wrong.  Gold remains unattractive now even with the Greek dilemma.  The fundamentals here are negative with the stronger US dollar and the Fed looking to raise rates.  However I will be looking for the seasonal rally to take place in roughly the July-September time frame.  The gold shares are oversold on both the short and medium term.  They are unloved and look like they are about to break below the recent nine month consolidation zone.  If that happens things could get worse in a hurry.  Hasn't happened yet but it's something to keep a close eye on.  So there will be plenty of things to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another weak session as the Dow fell 75 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Still no resolution for Greece and the next meeting is this weekend.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but they are still in the overbought zone.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY July calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session.  Weakness in the final hour the past 2 days isn't a positive.  However I will maybe attempt this trade again tomorrow.  GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume.  The techncials have rolled over here as well.  We are at the 50 day moving average here.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold again was off just a bit as was the US dollar.  If Greece is about to blow up, wouldn't you expect to see a rise in gold?  Maybe I'm just not seeing things correctly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  I'm still interested in getting some ABX October calls.  I suppose when the weekly charts are oversold I'll give them a shot.  Getting there but not yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Could the market fall apart here on a Greek debacle over the weekend?  Well yes, it could because it is an unknown if it happens and the market likes certainty.  I guess the question is whether it will or not.  We need to stick to the technical indicators though.  The TRAN just broke to a fresh low.  But the small stocks are holding up better here.  The summation index is moving lower but is in an area that it has turned around in the past.  So we have a few conflicting signals and that makes the trading tougher than usual.  If we do head lower tomorrow, I'll probably try the SPY July calls again.  But the sidelines may just be the best place to be.  A case can be made to let this Greek drama play out and then trade from there.  Or I could simply focus on the GE trade only.  I'll consider the various scenarios overnight and try to come up with a profitable strategy.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

Stocks took a hit today as the Dow fell 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back down again but the pattern here appears more sideways to me.  Perhaps more of the Greek drama fears again.  But we can't just dismiss todays price action.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow which is a plus.  But the TRAN got clobbered today and is about to make a new low.  The ideal scenario would be sideways to lower into Monday and then purchase some SPY July calls.  However the market rarely obliges you.  GE was off almost 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps there will be a chance for the July calls here after all.  Gold was off a bit on the futures as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were little changed again on light volume.  There's a chance that ABX is putting in a bottom here but I'm inclined to wait for lower prices.  Mentally I'm tired as I did not sleep much last night.  It isn't a good idea to trade in a slower mental condition.  The major stock indices are still overbought.  We closed on the low of the session and that's bearish heading into tomorrow.  The revised GDP final number was a non event.  We've been in a trading range for the past 4 months.  A breakout is overdue.  I'm still a believer in new all time highs coming but I could be wrong.  I'm going to have to look things over again tonight and come up with a game plan for tomorrow.  Perhaps the sidelines will have some appeal but we'll have to see what happens overnight.  Gold was still weak today so there wasn't any apparent flight to safety.  A good nights sleep and a fresh start tomorrow is the best course of action in my mind.  We'll see what unfolds in the foreign markets and go from there.

Not much going on today as the Dow gained 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher grudgingly.  There really isn't much to say about todays price action.  In my mind the trend is still up and I'd like to get some SPY July calls if we see a pullback.  The short term indicators are overbought for the major stock indices but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way.  Greece has yet to resolve itself but that is supposed to happen soon.  Perhaps we'll get a sell the news event.  That's a guess as usual.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was summer average.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance at the July calls here but we'll see.  Gold was off $7 on the futures as the US dollar gained a full point today.  Both the XAU and GDX barely moved today on light volume.  The gold shares are oversold and on the verge of breaking medium term support on the weekly charts.  A breakdown will probably take the October gold share call trade off the table.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Gold is still above the $1150 level, which I feel is the key support at this point.  However the fundamental picture for gold here is negative in my opinion.  I'll keep an eye on developments going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although we are in an overbought market environment, I'm still leaning bullish and I'd still like to own some SPY calls.  I do believe that we will break out to new all time highs on the S&P 500 during the July option cycle.  I'm remaining patient for the gold share trade at this time.  We watch the foreign markets overnight and see the reaction to the final GDP number tomorrow.
  

Back to the upside post expiration as the Dow gained 103 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways as we have yet to have a solid break higher here.  But I do believe that it will be coming.  I'd still like to try the SPY July calls at some point.  However the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are overbought.  We are also moving day to day with the situation in Greece.  Supposedly that problem will be solved by the end of the week.  GE was up 18 cents on light volume.  We'll need to see a run back to the bottom of its sideways channel in order to attempt the July calls here.  Gold futures fell $17 today on a positive US dollar and the good news on Greece.  The XAU shed a point and GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares bounce of last week looks false and we are heading lower.  We are getting medium term oversold and the time to buy the October gold share calls is approaching.  I'm still looking at the ABX calls as the vehicle of choice.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A good start to the week for stocks but we'll need to see a pullback to get long.  Otherwise this will be another missed trade.  The small stocks continue to lead the way here and that's a positive.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  The final GDP revision on Wednesday could be a mover.  However with the beginning of summer the doldrums can appear at any time.  The trading is never easy and sluggish markets don't help the matter.  The daily gold candlestick chart has a bearish pattern after todays price action.  A resolution of the Greek drama would probably put further pressure on the precious metal.  Patience is still advised here.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

A downside expiration as the Dow fell 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would suggest.  The summation index could turn back down after today or perhaps it is moving sideways.  This could be the technical snap back that I am looking for.  However with the unsettled situation in Greece, there is a chance that it is more.  And that is the problem here.  The market is susceptible to headline risk.  The short term technicals are more overbought than oversold at this point.  I'm still leaning bullish here though.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was expiration heavy.  The Bollinger bands here on the daily chart are getting so tight that a breakout one way or the other is imminent.  I still think the resolution will be to the upside and I still like the July calls here.  Gold was pretty much flat on the session and the US dollar had a mild gain.  The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average as the gold shares had poor relative strength vs. gold today.  Not sure exactly what that means but it could simply be expiration related.  With the uncertainty in Greece, I would have expected more of a flight to safety for gold and the US dollar.  As I've said before, perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to go over all the charts this weekend to come up with a strategy for next week.  There's another meeting about the Greek tragedy on Monday.  I don't know how long this saga will last this time.  The markets are being held hostage.  But it will get resolved one way or the other eventually.  The RUT hit a new high yesterday.  With the small stocks out performing and the summation index in a zone where it has turned around in the past, I can't be too bearish here.  I still think that a summer rally is in the cards.  I'll probably be looking at the SPY July calls and the GE July calls as well.  But those decisions will have to come over the weekend.  The recent bounce for gold stalled today and the gold shares traded lower.  I'm going to remain patient there for now.  The ABX October calls remain on the radar but the purchase will be put off until they get short term oversold again.  This trade remains viable as long as gold holds the $1150 level.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 180 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Todays action should  turn the summation index back to the upside.  The down trend line of the last four weeks in the S&P 500 has been broken to the upside on good volume.  Declines can be bought in my opinion.  Technically I'll be looking for a snap back to this line to get some SPY July calls.  The Greece situation wasn't resolved and the meetings will now be ongoing.  Expect some type of resolution there.  This is the beginning of the summer rally in my mind.  I am hoping it is not too late to profit from it.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  May have missed this July call trade but we'll see.  Earnings are due the day of the July option expiration.  Gold moved higher as the futures gained $25 but some of that was from the aftermarket yesterday.  The US dollar was lower today but did finish off of the lows for the session.  The XAU added 7/8 and GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was lighter than yesterday.  I expected more upside here out of the gold shares considering the gains in gold itself.  So perhaps the October call trade still could work.  The ideal timing for this purchase would be sometime in July.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like buying the June SPY calls on Monday would have been the proper strategy.  But it doesn't matter now.  The bigger picture has stocks turning higher here and I think for more than just a week.  The TRAN had a nice move higher today as well.  So I feel that call buying for July is the right move from here.  The proper timing will be one of the keys as usual.  I'm probably going to buy some SPY July calls if we get a move back towards the broken downtrend line.  If that doesn't occur then I will have to look for something else.  GE remains on the radar as well but it isn't as volatile as we all know.  I'm still being patient for the gold share trade at this time.  So there you have it.  We'll watch what happens overnight and close out the week with expiration Friday tomorrow.   

We got the Fed out of the way and the market liked what it heard.  The Dow rose 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  We were higher during the session but it was a plus day.  I'm still bullish here.  Once we get Greece out of the way, I think we're heading to new all time highs.  That should be resolved tomorrow but we'll see.  I could be wrong but I think the summation index is about to turn around.  The short term technicals for the major stock averages are mid-range.  GE was up a nickel on good volume.  The July calls here remain on the radar.  Still waiting on an oversold condition for purchase.  Gold got a bounce from the Fed as the US dollar dropped.  The precious metal futures were down during the regular session but came back around $8 in the aftermarket.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2 and the volume was good.  Perhaps now is the time for the gold shares but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  ABX had a solid gain on good volume.  I'm not going to chase anything here, as going out to the October options gives us the benefit of time.  If we have missed it we'll look for something else.  Too early to tell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's possible that the market is still trying to sort things out here but I'm a believer in higher prices going forward.  The TRAN did continue lower today though.  If the current Greece problem isn't solved tomorrow, would that lead to a sell-off?  Always questions in the game.  Perhaps todays rally wasn't as robust due to the lingering uncertainty.  But that's a guess as usual.  With mid-range technical indicators we can't be certain about much.  We also have the summer market conditions to deal with, which means less players and slower trading.  That should probably kick in after this week.  We'll watch the foreign action overnight and see if gold has any follow through to the upside.  All eyes will be on the Greece and we'll watch the market reaction.    

Moving higher now as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but I do believe it is about to turn around.  We've got the Fed tomorrow and even if we head lower, I think it's a buying opportunity.  I'm now looking at the SPY July calls.  The risk in the June calls is probably too high for me now with only 3 days left before expiration.  But you never know.  We've still got Greece on Thursday to get through.  However it is most likely some kind of deal will come through.  But it is a problem that will probably never be solved.  GE finished flat on the session after selling off early.  Volume was summer average.  I still like the GE July calls at some point but would prefer to see a solid oversold reading.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  Things could get moving here on the Fed tomorrow.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Patience is the course of action here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN was lower today and you never know how the market will react to the Fed.  But I do think we are at a spot where the summation index will turn around.  Now I could be wrong and we head down for another leg but I don't think so.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I'm probably going to try the SPY July calls.  I am looking for some type of summer rally to begin and take us to new all time highs.  The RUT has held up well here and could be leading the way.  So we'll see.  Gold remains above $1150 and that is the level to watch in my opinion.  The lack of a decent rally in the face of the Greek situation could be all you need to know about gold here.  The gold shares are oversold but have remained that way for a couple of weeks.  So we'll see how the markets react to the Fed tomorrow and perhaps try the SPY July calls.

A downside start to expiration week as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We sold off early pretty hard and made back half of it during the session.  I would still like to try the SPY June calls but early today was probably the ideal time to buy them.  I do think that the summation index will turn around this week.  But the technical set-up to trade here is not ideal as things could still go either way.  GE was off 18 cents on average volume.  Getting to short term oversold but not there yet.  Perhaps the GE July calls will be the next trade.  Gold found some interest as the futures rose $6.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on summer average volume.  I would have expected more interest in both gold and the US dollar with the questions coming out of Greece.  Perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Greece is stealing the spotlight once again and the next meeting to resolve that is on Thursday.  I'm guessing a deal will get done and the markets will rally.  We have the Fed on Wednesday to deal with as well.  So it should be a somewhat volatile trading week, with expiration thrown in there too.  I could just sit on the sidelines myself but you don't make any money like that.  I might try the SPY June calls if we head lower to test the recent lows tomorrow.  But it would be very risky.  The best trades are when things line up properly and that isn't really the case at this time.  I do want some of the GE July calls though at some point soon.  If there is a deal for Greece on Thursday, there won't be any reason to buy gold.  If the Fed is hawkish with its statement on Wednesday, it's another reason not to buy gold.  Trades need to be technically based and right now it's a news driven environment.  That said, I still might try something tomorrow.  I'll go over everything again tonight and then decide.  But as I said earlier, this morning may have been the best time to get some SPY June calls.  So we'll see.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind here.  The short term technical are mid-range.  I still may try the SPY June calls again but the risk would be pretty high and the signal, if it comes, wouldn't be as strong as the last one.  Greece is back in the news and so we may just have to wait for that to be resolved before we get any real direction.  GE was off 1/8, very light volume there as well.  Gold was off just a bit today as was the US dollar.  We are not seeing a flight to safety yet with the recent, back in the news again Greece situation.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses with no volume.  The lack of interest here is obvious.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm leaning towards a bullish conclusion to all the sideways movement.  The summation index is heading lower but it is in a zone where unless we get a complete collapse, it should turn around.  I do not think that the market will fall apart here.  I could be wrong.  We could not improve on the huge up day Wednesday and that could be a problem.  Technically things could go either way.  Guessing is not a winning strategy.  Maybe if the 50 day RSI on the S&P 500 gets oversold early next week, I'll try the SPY June calls again.  But things were lined up better for the last trade.  It will be options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will show up.  GE has been moving sideways since the breakout in April.  The Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a pretty good move is on the way.  As usual, the direction is the question.  I think GE will be moving higher but it isn't oversold at the moment.  The gold shares remain oversold without any bounce and the volume says nobody is interested.  With summer fast approaching, the lack of participants in all the markets is something to consider.  Light volume can skew things on way or the other but not really mean anything.  Probably treading lightly is the best course of action unless there is a solid technical set up.  There will be plenty to think about over the weekend and we'll have to keep an eye out for any headlines.  News event markets are not easy to trade but that is the nature of the game.  We've got the Fed to deal with next week as well.  But it's Friday afternoon now and time for a break.

We did get some follow through today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  Retail sales were a touch better than expected.  We rallied for the first half hour and drifted lower for the rest of the session.  The short term technical are now mid-range for the S&P 500.  I still think we are heading higher.  I did sell the SPY June calls today for a bit over 100% profit.  I could have had a better exit as well but at least I stuck to the short term trade time frame.  I may even try these again before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar rose off of the retail sales report.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume remains light here as there isn't any interest in the gold shares.  The gold shares are relatively weaker here and that is not a bullish sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The SPY June trade went OK.  The entry and exit good have been better.  However that trade is over and doesn't matter now.  If the technicals line up properly in the next 6 days, I may try this trade again.  I do think that the summation index is going to turn around here and start to move higher.  Perhaps the July calls would be a better choice but they are expensive.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Inflation data tomorrow but next week we get the Fed and the markets should move on that.  Gold is not doing much and remains uninteresting.  But I am probably going to try the October ABX calls if gold gets to $1150 or so.  Whether it can hold that level will determine the fate of that trade.  We'll watch what goes on overnight and close out the week tomorrow. 

The expected bounce arrived as the Dow rose 236 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not sure if today was simply a one day wonder or the start of something that leads to new all time highs.  I'd like to think that it's the latter.  My SPY June calls are doing good despite the poor timing on the entry.  I perhaps should of just sold them today though.  We are right at a short term down trend line that began about 3 weeks ago for the S&P 500.  We'll move off of the retail sales data tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume.  It appears that I've missed this trade for the July calls.  However the market goes where it wants and things could turn around tomorrow.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak session.  The XAU was up 7/8 and GDX rose an 1/8 on light volume.  The gold shares didn't really follow gold higher and that isn't bullish.  NEM has turned into an under performer now.  I'm going to try and remain patient on the gold shares but do want the October calls here at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the bounce and now what?  It was technically expected and it showed up.  But where do we go from here?  I'm hoping for some upside follow through tomorrow but anything can happen.  I'm considering holding on to this trade longer now but that may not be the proper strategy as well.  As usual, the game is never easy.  The major stock index daily candlestick charts look to have bullish set ups on them after todays price action.  The short term indicators also have room to run higher.  So there will be a lot to think about tonight.  I don't think that recent upside in gold the past 3 days is the start of anything substantial.  I could be wrong.  The short term technical indicators have turned up here as well.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  We'll see if the foreign markets can follow the Dow higher and then await the market reaction to the retail sales numbers. 

We limped around for much of the session as the Dow fell 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The internals are very weak.  That said, we are short term oversold and I do believe a decent bounce is coming tomorrow or Thursday.  I did get the SPY June calls this morning but my timing was not good.  I could have gotten a better price if I was quicker and ended up chasing it.  They are at break even now.  This is probably a trade that needs to be sold by the close on Thursday.  We'll see.  GE was up a few cents on what passes for average volume these days.  I still like the July calls here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly off.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  NEM got whacked on a deal to buy another miner by issuing more shares.  Perhaps the out performance there is coming to a halt.  I still am considering the ABX October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action in the SPY calls today was interesting to say the least.  But at least there is plenty of liquidity there.  I am pretty sure that buying the calls here is the right trade.  Otherwise things will unravel and I don't see that happening tomorrow.  Maybe the retail sales report on Thursday can get things moving to the upside.  I think that will be the case if tomorrow is another day like today.  My execution on the entry today wasn't good.  I knew what I had to do and juggled around with the price too much.  The SPY is a fast trading vehicle.  I'm still fairly confident that this trade will work out.  Gold is still above $1150 and the volume has been light to start off the week.  I'm trying to remain patient there.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

To the downside to begin the week as the Dow fell 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We closed near the lows for the session and that is bearish.  The summation index continues lower.  The short term technical indicators are oversold for the major stock indices.  That said, I do believe that on weakness tomorrow SPY June calls can be bought.  That will be my next trade.  Unless the market is about to completely unravel, we should see a bounce either tomorrow or on Wednesday.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light again.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar fell by over a point.  Considering the drop in the dollar, it wasn't much of a gold rally.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains but volume did pick up a bit to the upside.  The gold shares are short term oversold here.  I am still leaning towards the ABX October calls if we get medium term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My work says that some upside is coming.  I don't know how long it will last but there should be something by Wednesday.  Weakness can be bought tomorrow.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and we haven't seen that lately.  I will be looking to get some SPY June calls in the early hours of trading.  Of course I could be wrong and if I am we'll see quite a decline due to the technical nature of what is unfolding.  But I do not think that will occur.  Gold needs to hold the $1150 level and for silver it's $15.50 or we're heading lower.  Perhaps if we get to these levels in the coming days, I'll try the ABX October calls.  Too soon to tell.  Hopefully my timing on the SPY trade tomorrow will be correct.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

Reaction to todays employment report?  Not much.  The Dow fell 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  We were down, then up and spent most of the day in a sideways malaise.  That is where we are at.  Sideways forever or so it seems.  The summation index is still heading down.  The TRAN had a positive session and the small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  I'm leaning towards perhaps getting some SPY June calls at the beginning of next week.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  Gold did come back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was very light.  There is no compelling reason to own gold here.  $1150 is the next downside target and it will need to hold on there.  I'm still looking at the October ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is rare when we don't see some volatility one way or the other on the jobs report.  Perhaps the market has its mind on something else.  Employment expanded more than expected.  Maybe the recent rise in interest rates is putting a lid on the stock market.  That money has to go somewhere though.  Technically the major big cap indexes are short term oversold.  Whatever is going on underneath the surface will eventually come out.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend.  The precious metals did come off of their lows but the lack of volume was glaring.  There is no interest here.  Sometimes the time to buy is when nobody else wants it.  The fundamentals for gold at this time are negative though.  But I do want to have some kind of bullish position before the seasonally strong August/September time period.  It may be too early.  Plenty to ponder over the next 2 days.  I really think that the market is setting up for some type of rally soon.  I could be wrong but if things pan out on Monday or Tuesday, I'm probably going to attempt the SPY June calls.  We'll see what the charts say over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Lower today ahead of the jobs report as the Dow fell 170 points on still light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The selling in the bond market seems to be carrying over to stocks.  I think tomorrows price action will go a long way as to where we are heading for the next few weeks.  Short term oversold on the major big cap indices.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are converging.  This suggests a big move is coming up.  In which direction is the question.  Gold fell today, about $10 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed but came off of its lows.  Commodities in general were weak today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still over 2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  It looks like things are rolling over here for stocks.  If we get a strong employment report, stocks will probably head lower.  If that is the case a bounce trade in the SPY next week is possible.  Lower prices could give me a chance at getting the GE calls.  Gold closed below $1180 today and the next support comes in at $1150.  If that doesn't hold up things could really get ugly there.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls though.  Timing is everything.  We'll watch overnight to see if the foreign markets follow the US lower.  Then all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report. 

Once again the market is heading nowhere fast as the Dow gained 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The Dow finished well off of the highs for the session.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The TRAN had a strong session and that's a positive.  But I still don't have a good feel or signal on what to do here.  I'm leaning towards the SPY call side but the volume has been so light lately that I don't have a good idea.  I'll probably just remain on the sidelines.  GE gained 20 cents and the volume is still light.  It looks like maybe that GE will not get into what I consider the buy zone for the July calls.  I'll wait and see.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures despite another drop in the US dollar.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume remains lackluster.  I'm guessing that things will pick up here with the release of the jobs numbers.  Which way is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be another wishy-washy session ahead of Fridays release.  I'm most likely going to remain cautious.  Sometimes you have to be patient and wait for good set ups.  You do not want to get into a habit of guessing.  I would like to put on a trade but there isn't really anything that I'm clear on right now.  The precious metals are getting short term oversold but I'm going to wait.  Ditto for the gold shares.  I may change my mind tomorrow but for now indecision rules the day.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

Back and forth again today as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive again.  So we continue to go nowhere as the market tries to resolve which way it wants to go.  This has been going on for weeks on end.  The only sustained trend is sideways.  There is a short term down trend line in effect for the big cap stock averages.  What happens there probably will tell the story.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Waiting for oversold here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures which wasn't that much considering the US dollar got clobbered.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was average for lately.  Not sure what is happening here with respect to the US dollar.  However golds lack of better upside isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose all we can do is wait while the market decides which way it wants to go.  The short term techncials are getting oversold here though for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the SPY June calls ahead of the employment report will be the proper play.  But the summation index is still moving lower.  I may just have to remain on the sidelines.  I've got a couple of days to decide.  The gold shares can wait for now in my opinion.  Short term oversold there as well.  However the medium term picture isn't as clear.  The trading is never easy.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow gained 29 points to start the month of June.  The advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light.  We bounced around and gave up half of the days gains in the final hour.  The summation index is still heading lower but the TRAN had a good day.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind.  GE was basically unchanged on average volume.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold was off a buck on the futures which wasn't bad because the US dollar was higher once again today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I looked all weekend for something to trade but there aren't any clear signals at the moment.  The summation index is still pointing down and I'm going to follow that cue.  I'm still in a cautious mode for now.  If we head lower into the employment report, I may be tempted to try the June SPY calls on Thursday.  But things will have to line up for that trade.  I also still want to try the gold shares going out to October.  But patience is probably a good thing for that idea.  I also had an idea to trade AAL after reading an article in Barrons a week ago.  However I do not follow the airline stocks per se and this issue has already moved higher.  The June calls there were the proper choice.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.

We completed the month of May with a whimper as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The revised GDP came in weaker and that was pretty much expected.  The summation index is still heading lower and perhaps we should take our cues from that.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range.  No clear signal yet with 3 weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  It appears that the technicals here on the short term are starting to roll over.  Perhaps we will get a set up for the July calls in GE.  That is what I'll be looking for here.  Gold didn't do much today despite the weaker GDP report.  The US dollar finished the session little changed as well.  Ditto for the gold share indices.  Volume was light.  I'm still looking for the ABX October calls but ABX isn't oversold on a medium term basis yet.  I may try the June calls here again as well if the short term is negative.  I should not be in a hurry here because we are still in a seasonally weak period for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN continues to be weak here and is oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  Will this condition continue or will we see a bounce from here?  I think that the answer to that question will go a long way into telling where the stock indexes are headed.  Another thing to ponder is whether the divergence between the TRAN and the Dow is going to have a negative effect on stocks.  It hasn't happened yet.  I'll have to check the charts this weekend and try to come up with some answers.  Gold is still holding on above the support of $1180 to $1150.  It is oversold on a short term basis.  The precious metals are either building a long term base or consolidating before the next break down.  The right answer there will make you some money.  It's something to think about.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  A lot of economic data out next week, with the jobs report on Friday being the biggest.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Weakness for this trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We'll get the GDP revision tomorrow and finish up the month of May.  The summation index is moving lower.  I still think that we will be moving higher from here but anything can happen.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain mid-range.  Not a clear signal really.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  I still would like to get some July calls here if we ever get oversold.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU was up a point and GDX had a fractional gain.  Volume was light.  ABX was a bit lower early on and I placed an order for the June calls.  My order wasn't filled and ABX turned around to finish the day with a gain of 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps I should have chased this trade but to me it was short term in nature so I stayed out.  It is simply another missed opportunity if ABX continues higher.  I also like the October calls here at some point over the summer.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see how the market reacts to the revised GDP number and that is about all we've got to finish the week and the month.  Still three weeks to go in the June option cycle, so there will be trades out there.  My guess is a weaker GDP and a stock rally with gold moving higher as well.  The consensus is for a weaker number as well.  Perhaps there will be some more volatility with the end of the month but we could finish things with a whimper as well.  There really isn't a clear technical signal for the stock indexes at this time.  The gold shares were stronger than the price of gold today and that's a positive.  However the volume was light.  Summer is approaching and you don't want to force trades.  If the gold shares head back to the downside in the next few weeks, it possibly could be the set up for the October calls.  Time will tell.  We'll watch the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 121 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  Todays price action negates the Friday bounce trade that I had in mind.  We would have needed to move sideways or continue lower for that trade to take place.  So now we go from here.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks acted well.  The TRAN looks like it may stop its decline here.  I'm thinking that we will be moving back now to attempt new all time highs.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Patience for now.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar finished flat as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I am now considering a bounce trade for the gold shares on Friday.  They are short term oversold and I'm thinking that the GDP revision will be lower.  I am looking at the ABX June calls and this would be a short term trade.  I will consider it tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are back in a place where they could go either way again.  However I now think that we'll be heading higher form here.  You always have to adjust to the information and price action at hand.  It isn't easy to do.  The short term technicals here are now mid-range for the major stock indexes.  Taking a gold share trade here is risky but it could pay off for strictly a short term play.  I'm looking at the ABX June 11.5 or 12 calls.  If there is weakness in ABX tomorrow, I'm probably going to try this trade.  So we'll see.  2 days left in the month of May.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.

We started off the short trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index will be moving lower after todays action.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now rolled over.  We did bounce up off of the lows for the day in the final hour.  I'm not sure if this is the beginning of something sustained or just another run lower in the trading range.  If we stay lower the next couple of days, I'll be looking for a bounce on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 or so on good volume.  I'm still looking at the July calls here if we can get oversold or near the $26.50 zone.  Gold fell today as the US dollar continues higher.  The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  I'm looking for gold share calls with an autumn expiration.  The ABX October calls are on my radar.  No hurry to purchase.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN continues to drop and its 50 day moving average is now passing through the 200 day moving average to the downside.  That is a classic sell signal.  However none of the other major stock averages are even close to that happening.  The technical roll over of the indicators says that there is more downside on the way in the short term.  Obviously purchasing index puts on Friday was the way to go.  My work does point to an oversold bounce possibility this Friday if we see more weakness in the next two days.  So we'll see.  I'll be looking at the SPY June calls if things line up.  The gold share indices have broken down out of their rising trend channels.  The short term technicals here are getting oversold.  NEM continues to show the best relative strength.  The European stock markets were weaker today also.  We'll have to see if that continues overnight as well as what happens in the Asian markets.    

Lower today as we were for much of the session as the Dow fell 52 points on very light volume.  The advance declines were negative.  We bounced around and then dropped in the final half hour to close with a loss.  You can't read too much into todays action because the market was certainly in holiday mode.  The Yellen speech came and went.  The short term technical indicators for most of the major averages are still in the overbought zone.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GE was off a few cents, the volume very light.  Overbought here as well.  Gold was flat despite a higher US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses.  Volume was very light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got what was expected today in the marketplace.  Listless, light volume activity.  Not sure what to expect next week but I'll try and figure that out over the weekend.  It really was a week to just let pass by and I'm glad I did.  Next week perhaps the 1st quarter GDP revision will be the mover on Friday.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold share indices are breaking down from their ascending trend channel.  Not quite oversold there yet on a short term basis.  Not mush else to say about today.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual.  Perhaps I'll be able to come up with a trade for the June option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still trying to figure out which way to go here as the Dow barely changed today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive again.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Maybe we're going higher, maybe lower and I just don't know.  So I had better wait until things clear up.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and consider scenarios over the long weekend.  I suspect tomorrow will be another light volume affair unless Janet Yellen says something noteworthy.  GE up another 8 cents on good volume.  The relative strength of GE is very good here.  If we do see a pullback, calls will be in order.  The gold futures were off few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Patience advised here for the gold share calls.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Yesterday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move forecast for today or tomorrow.  We'll see if that pans out.  Direction is not part of the signal.  I'm going to hold off on any SPY options until next week.  The technicals for gold have rolled over.  Expect lower prices there.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It seems as though the market is still trying to make up its mind here.  The Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The Fed minutes arrived and the stock indices had a small rally only to give it all back.  The TRAN had a very negative day.  If that is the leader here, we are about to roll over.  It has that feel.  The summation index is starting to go sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes are overbought.  I'm moving my stance to cautious here.  GE on the other hand was up over 1/3 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, than we should be moving higher.  But I'm not thinking that is the case this time around.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher but not as much as the past two days.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains.  Volume was light.  For whatever reason, NEM is out performing here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of days to go this week before a long holiday weekend in the US.  I think the logical course of action would be to let this week complete and go from there.  Maybe try some June SPY puts if we continue to just drift higher on light volume.  The market has tried to break out and the volume hasn't been there.  The TRAN breakdown is not a positive.  The small cap stocks have now made lower highs.  Unless we get some huge upside rally out of nowhere, be wary.  Perhaps the Yellen speech on Friday will help the market make up its mind.  The gold share indices remain in an upward channel.  But one more negative session will break down out of it.  Stay tuned.  We'll see what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.

An up and down day with not a lot of conviction either way.  The Dow gained 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Waiting for something to get a trend going but nothing just yet.  The major stock indices are short term overbought.  Not much to do here but watch and wait.  Of course, you don't make any money that way but you don't lose any either.  Perhaps if we continue the light volume levitation, I'll try some June SPY puts.  But the better idea in my mind is waiting for a pullback to get long.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Patience here.  Gold took a fall today finally on the stronger US dollar.  A delayed reaction I suppose.  The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks as the dollar gained a full point.  The XAU shed 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/4.  I did put in an overnight order for some ABX June puts but it wasn't filled.  I was a day late and it is frustrating.  I'm looking for more downside for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK with the exception of missing this gold share trade.  I probably should have done more work over the weekend but this idea just occurred to me yesterday.  Had I been paying better attention, perhaps I would have seen it over the weekend.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today which was the opposite of yesterday.  The TRAN also reversed course.  The big caps are hitting new highs but the small stocks are not.  That is not the scenario for an extended rally in my view.  This type of price action usually happens towards the end of an up move.  So we'll see.  The volume has been weak and that isn't a positive either.  But the summation index is still pointing up and as I've said before, there is no overhead resistance.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle, so we'll see how things play out.  I believe that gold is about to begin an extended decline.  The gold shares are overbought both short and medium term.  Puts there are advised but they are already more expensive than yesterday.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and see what the Fed has to report tomorrow.

Meandering higher today as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The major stock indices are overbought and staying there.  The TRAN had a good session.  There is no reason to not believe that higher prices are coming.  The only drawback here is the light volume.  However there is no overhead resistance.  We've got the Fed minutes on Wednesday and Janet Yellen with a speech on Friday.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Just waiting for an oversold reading to get some June or July calls here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures despite a strong session for the US dollar.  There are some rumblings about Greece again which perhaps is leading to a flight to safety play.  The XAU was slightly lower, while GDX was flat.  Overbought for the gold shares on a short and medium term basis.  I'm now thinking about perhaps some June puts here.  There was some media hype over the weekend about now being the time to buy some gold.  Usually when something gets popular in the media, it pays to go the other way.  The volume for gold and the gold shares remains low.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I guess at this point I'd like to see stocks pull back a little in order to purchase some June SPY calls.  I'm wary of the low volume here but there isn't any doubt that the trend is up.  An extra week in this option cycle makes things expensive for now.  I suppose I'll just be patient and keep an eye on things for now.  Gold is at resistance and most likely depending on the Fed this week will determine if we break through or not.  That's a guess as usual.  I'm looking at the ABX June puts.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

An uneventful expiration as the Dow gained 20 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  We were lower for most of the session in a narrow trading range.  Some of the big cap averages hit new all time highs today.  But we haven't seen a high volume breakout to the upside just yet.  I do think that it's coming but I certainly don't know when.  The summation index is now heading higher.  However the small caps, most notably RUT, are lagging here.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  I just need to time the purchase of some SPY calls at the right time.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  I'm leaning towards the July calls here.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar lost a bit more.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Still oversold here on a medium term basis.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On now to the June option cycle which has an extra week in it.  The premiums will be priced as such and will be more expensive to start.  We'll also have a holiday week thrown in a s well.  We'll get the Fed minutes in the middle of next week.  The SPY is getting short term overbought.  I'll be looking at what to do over the weekend but I'm pretty sure that I want to own calls here reasonably soon.  If the stock indices do break out to the upside, there is no overhead resistance.  I'm considering the July calls for GE because this stock sometimes goes sideways for quite a while, as is the case for the past few weeks.  The ideal entry point would be around $26.50.  Gold and the gold shares are short term overbought here and at 200 day resistance.  Although this is a seasonally weak period for the precious metal, it has held up pretty well.  I'm not sure what that means going forward.  There is certainly not a lot of interest in the precious metals at this time.  Patience is probably the best course of action here.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market surged higher today and some of the major stock indices closed at all time highs.  The Dow gained 191 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This may move the summation index back to the upside.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a sustained move to the upside that I have been looking for.  But that has yet to be seen.  However I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  Looks like the May SPY calls this week would have worked out.  GE was up another 20 cents on light volume.  If the overall market goes up, GE should go along for a ride.  It may be too late for the calls here.  Gold was up another $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower again.  The gold shares didn't go along as the XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see if we can really get out of this protracted trading range.  If we continue higher with some volume, that will be the key.  Once it gets going, it usually goes higher than everybody expects.  So we'll see.  The gold shares are stalling at the 200 day moving average.  The medium term picture here is overbought.  I'm waiting for a decline here before attempting the next long trade here.  The September or October calls for ABX or GDX perhaps.  But patience is needed.  GE looks like it wants to break through the upper Bollinger band now.  That would be a positive for higher prices going forward.  The TRAN continues to lag.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

The stock market is still trying to figure out what to do here as the Dow fell 7 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We opened with a pop higher but could not hold on to the gains.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm still in the camp of a positive resolution to this sideways pattern.  GE was up almost 20 cents on average volume.  Waiting to buy June or July calls here on an oversold reading.  May not happen at this pace.  Gold rallied today on the weak retail sales number.  The precious metal futures rose $25 as the US dollar took a had a good drop.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  The medium term technical indicators are overbought for the gold shares.  I do not advise chasing todays gains.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like we have been waiting forever for the stock indices to have a sustained direction.  We continue on that path.  The TRAN looks like it is about to break down here.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY.  I think perhaps the GE calls will be the next trade.  The gold shares can wait for now.  Let's get through this week and go from there is my mantra at the moment.  We'll follow the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

The market got clobbered early but finished the day with a loss of 37 points.  The advance/declines were negative and the volume was light.  We were off 150 early and eventually made it all the way back to positive before rolling over again.  When we were down, I did not get any SPY May calls although that probably would have been the right move.  A market that can come back from such a drop, isn't one that is going much lower in my opinion.  I think that I'll be staying on the sidelines now with regards to the S&P 500 May options.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  June or July calls here remain the game plan.  The gold futures were up almost $10 on a weaker US dollar.  The XAU rose 3/4 and GDX gained 1/4.  Volume remains on the light side.  Patience is advised here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although the summation index is still heading lower, I really think that we are about to hit new all time highs again.  That's a guess as usual.  It is option expiration week and it usually has a positive bias.  The comeback off of the lows today was impressive.  Retail sales tomorrow should provide some excitement.  Bond yields have risen pretty fast in the past few weeks.  As we come back off of that, the market should rally.  The technicals right now are not giving any solid signals for the major stock indices.  It looks like I'll be moving into the June option cycle which has an extra week in it.  Gold found some buyers today but it remains range bound.  Nothing to do here but wait.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and go from there.     

No upside follow through today as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  I am thinking about getting some May SPY calls on weakness tomorrow but I usually don't fare well on the short term trades.  The technical picture is mixed for this trade but we are in expiration week.  Maybe I'll come to my senses and skip this idea.  We'll see.  GE was off 3/8 on average volume.  The Bollinger bands are contracting which foretells a big move coming for GE.  Which way is the question.  I still like the June or July calls here but I could be reading things wrong here as well.  Obviously my confidence isn't where it should be.  Gold was off $5 today as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares are more oversold than overbought on a short term basis.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Knocking on the door to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices but we just can't get in.  Not a lot of economic data due this week but we do get retail sales on Wednesday.  That should get things moving.  Once again, which direction is the question.  If things get short term oversold on some of my intra-day indicators tomorrow, then I might try the SPY call trade.  If not I'll hopefully sit things out.  I'll be checking some other things out overnight.  GLD and SLV remain in a trading range with light volume.  Unloved and with no interest for now.  It is still a seasonally unfavorable time period for the precious metals.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and decide what to do tomorrow.

The employment report came out and the market responded with a huge gain of 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  I'm not sure that this will turn the summation index around but it will be getting close.  Back to knocking on the door to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  There is nothing in the way preventing new all time highs.  You figured today would tell the story and it did.  I don't think the numbers really mattered as the market will use any excuse to do what it wants.  So we should be heading higher form here.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  I'd still like to get some calls here but we've already moved up in the past two days.  Gold was up $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  These two didn't move as much on the jobs numbers and to me that makes sense.  The employment report really wasn't drastic one way or the other.  The XAU was up 2/3 and GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was light.  Patience advised for purchasing options on the gold shares.  The interest remains missing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like the oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator this past Wednesday marked the low for stocks at this time.  Expiration week is next week and the positive bias could come into play.  I'll be looking for SPY calls on weakness.  It we can get the summation index to turn positive, that would be the all clear sign.  I do believe that is where we are headed.  Perhaps June calls should be the next trade.  Also I may be getting a better read on what is going on in the markets now.  The employment report doesn't matter as much as the market reaction to it.  Once we get to new all time highs there is no overhead resistance as well.  I'll be looking for opportunities over the weekend.  Gold remains unloved and I'll be looking for trades elsewhere.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A bounce today as the Dow gained 82 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We're coming off of an oversold reading in the McClellan oscillator.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I think tomorrow will go a long way as to what is going on here.  The market should move off of the employment report and that should give us the medium term direction.  I think it could go either way.  But we'll know more tomorrow.  I am not going to attempt any SPY trades here.  GE was up about 1/4 on average volume.  Not completely oversold here so I'll try and remain patient.  Gold was off $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The employment report should get these trading vehicles moving as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains today on average volume.  I think that patience is a good idea here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we are now basically waiting for the market action to tomorrows data.  The major stock indices appear to be trying to hang on here.  It is possible that the selling has subsided and that a rally will begin here.  The TRAN had a good day today.  But it's also possible that today was simply a day to relieve the selling pressure.  So I think that tomorrow will tell the story.  The gold shares acted better than gold today.  That is bullish.  The gold share indices also held at their 50 day moving averages.  So we'll see.  As always we'll watch the overnight action as we await the all important employment report tomorrow.

The Dow continued lower today as it lost 86 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did open higher and close lower again.  However we did come off of the lows for a mid-range of the day close.  Perhaps we'll see an attempt at a bounce tomorrow.  But the summation index continues lower.  Plus we have the jobs report on Friday, so I think traders could be wary of a position before that.  The McClellan oscillator is now in an area where it has bounced in the recent past.  The S&P 500 closed right on the near term support.  The next level in my mind would be 2050.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Still waiting to get the calls here.  Support at $26.50 and then $26.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures despite a huge drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX declined 1/2.  Volume picked up a bit.  Gold should be rallying when the dollar drops like it did today.  The usual relationships here between the US dollar, gold and the gold shares are not happening.  I don't know what that means but it is harder to try and trade here when the conditions are like this.  Not even close to being oversold yet for the gold shares so patience is still advised.  Mentally I'm trying not to be too down on myself for missing this shorting opportunity.  But it just goes to show you the type of dedication and hard work that must be put in to be successful in this game.  Even when doing that, you're not going to see every trade.  The small caps held up better today so there's a chance that perhaps the recent decline is closer to the end.  That's a guess as usual.  The foreign markets are losing ground here as well so perhaps there is some coordinated liquidation occurring.  Time will tell.  I suppose the next main event will happen on Friday when we get the employment report.  No telling how the markets will react to that.  If we get an oversold signal on the S&P 500 in the coming days, perhaps a bounce trade can be attempted before the May expiration.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there. 

To the downside today as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The previous two day light volume rally was the opportunity to get some puts.  With the summation index heading lower the path of least resistance is down.  The TRAN got whacked today and the small stocks continue to lead the way lower.  The big caps are still near their all time highs but I think that lower prices are in the near future.  It is probably too late to purchase any SPY puts.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume picked up today.  Perhaps we will get low enough here to get the June or July calls.  Not oversold yet though.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The gold shares followed the overall market.  The XAU lost 1/2 and GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  I'm still in the camp of waiting for a pullback before considering purchasing some calls here.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  I suppose I could have been more in tune with things and recognized that the recent light volume rally was a chance to get short.  But that was not the case.  I still don't have a good idea of the markets purpose here.  Only 8 days to go in the May option cycle.  I am still a believer in higher prices for the stock indices this year.  Right now Greece is starting to enter into the market picture again.  You can only guess how that gets resolved.  US interest rates have backed up in the past couple of weeks and the decline so far could be blamed on that as well.  But the decline has really only been in the smaller issues.  We've got the employment report due out on Friday and that should provide some clarity on market direction in the near term.  I suppose it wouldn't hurt to remain cautious for now.  Gold remains uninteresting.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lower overnight. 

Trying to push higher as the Dow added 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We did come off the highs of the session.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I don't have a good grasp on what is going on right now.  The small stocks did lead the way up and perhaps now they are leading the way down.  I do not have any SPY trades in mind for right now.  I wish there was a clear signal on what to do but there isn't.  GE was off a few cents and closed below its high as well.  Volume was light.  I'm looking out to the June or July calls.  Gold was up $12 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  However the XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains.  Volume was very light.  Gold and the gold shares have not correlated well lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of time left in the May option cycle.  I suppose if there is a set up in front of the employment report, I may be able to do a trade.  But that remains to be seen.  I am not sure if the light volume rally we've seen since Thursday is a chance to get your puts or something else.  So I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now.  Sometimes you simply have to be patient but we'll see how things shape up before Friday.  The volume in gold has tapered off so perhaps the interest that we saw has waned.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll follow the overnight developments and go from there. 

The market stormed back to the upside today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 183 market would suggest.  Beginning of the month money flows perhaps?  Do we begin another assault on new all time highs from here or was today a bounce for you to get short?  That is the question and at this time I don't have an answer.  You can make a case either way.  The summation index is heading lower, so I don't think that the weakness is over.  The small stocks are not leading the way here as well.  But it could be that the big caps will lead the way higher, which happens towards the end of extended rallies.  Obviously I don't have a clear idea of what is occurring at the moment.  GE was up 1/4 but the volume was lighter.  I'm still constructive on GE but I need to time the next trade properly.  I'll try and wait for an oversold condition.  Not there yet.  Gold was off about $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The gold shares continue their out performance as both the XAU and GDX had small fractional gains.  Volume was light.  I'll wait for a decline here before trying any trades in the gold shares.  We are still in a seasonally weak period for gold.  The gold shares have bucked that trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The month of May has started out on a positive note for the major stock indices.  The TRAN had a very good day and that could bode well going forward.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through on Monday.  I do not have any SPY trade ideas right now.  Perhaps the weekend chart studying will turn something up.  The continued strength in the gold shares despite the drop in the precious metal is confusing.  However the market always knows more than we do.  It's something to keep an eye on.  The market had plenty to digest this week and we'll get more data coming up including the employment report in a week.  I'll be looking for a technical signal to initiate a position but I don't see one now.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.