Friday, June 12, 2015
Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind here. The short term technical are mid-range. I still may try the SPY June calls again but the risk would be pretty high and the signal, if it comes, wouldn't be as strong as the last one. Greece is back in the news and so we may just have to wait for that to be resolved before we get any real direction. GE was off 1/8, very light volume there as well. Gold was off just a bit today as was the US dollar. We are not seeing a flight to safety yet with the recent, back in the news again Greece situation. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses with no volume. The lack of interest here is obvious. The ABX October calls are still on my radar. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm leaning towards a bullish conclusion to all the sideways movement. The summation index is heading lower but it is in a zone where unless we get a complete collapse, it should turn around. I do not think that the market will fall apart here. I could be wrong. We could not improve on the huge up day Wednesday and that could be a problem. Technically things could go either way. Guessing is not a winning strategy. Maybe if the 50 day RSI on the S&P 500 gets oversold early next week, I'll try the SPY June calls again. But things were lined up better for the last trade. It will be options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will show up. GE has been moving sideways since the breakout in April. The Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a pretty good move is on the way. As usual, the direction is the question. I think GE will be moving higher but it isn't oversold at the moment. The gold shares remain oversold without any bounce and the volume says nobody is interested. With summer fast approaching, the lack of participants in all the markets is something to consider. Light volume can skew things on way or the other but not really mean anything. Probably treading lightly is the best course of action unless there is a solid technical set up. There will be plenty to think about over the weekend and we'll have to keep an eye out for any headlines. News event markets are not easy to trade but that is the nature of the game. We've got the Fed to deal with next week as well. But it's Friday afternoon now and time for a break.