Monday, June 15, 2015
A downside start to expiration week as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. We sold off early pretty hard and made back half of it during the session. I would still like to try the SPY June calls but early today was probably the ideal time to buy them. I do think that the summation index will turn around this week. But the technical set-up to trade here is not ideal as things could still go either way. GE was off 18 cents on average volume. Getting to short term oversold but not there yet. Perhaps the GE July calls will be the next trade. Gold found some interest as the futures rose $6. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had slight gains on summer average volume. I would have expected more interest in both gold and the US dollar with the questions coming out of Greece. Perhaps the market knows more than we do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Greece is stealing the spotlight once again and the next meeting to resolve that is on Thursday. I'm guessing a deal will get done and the markets will rally. We have the Fed on Wednesday to deal with as well. So it should be a somewhat volatile trading week, with expiration thrown in there too. I could just sit on the sidelines myself but you don't make any money like that. I might try the SPY June calls if we head lower to test the recent lows tomorrow. But it would be very risky. The best trades are when things line up properly and that isn't really the case at this time. I do want some of the GE July calls though at some point soon. If there is a deal for Greece on Thursday, there won't be any reason to buy gold. If the Fed is hawkish with its statement on Wednesday, it's another reason not to buy gold. Trades need to be technically based and right now it's a news driven environment. That said, I still might try something tomorrow. I'll go over everything again tonight and then decide. But as I said earlier, this morning may have been the best time to get some SPY June calls. So we'll see. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.