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Friday, June 19, 2015

A downside expiration as the Dow fell 100 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would suggest.  The summation index could turn back down after today or perhaps it is moving sideways.  This could be the technical snap back that I am looking for.  However with the unsettled situation in Greece, there is a chance that it is more.  And that is the problem here.  The market is susceptible to headline risk.  The short term technicals are more overbought than oversold at this point.  I'm still leaning bullish here though.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was expiration heavy.  The Bollinger bands here on the daily chart are getting so tight that a breakout one way or the other is imminent.  I still think the resolution will be to the upside and I still like the July calls here.  Gold was pretty much flat on the session and the US dollar had a mild gain.  The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average as the gold shares had poor relative strength vs. gold today.  Not sure exactly what that means but it could simply be expiration related.  With the uncertainty in Greece, I would have expected more of a flight to safety for gold and the US dollar.  As I've said before, perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to have to go over all the charts this weekend to come up with a strategy for next week.  There's another meeting about the Greek tragedy on Monday.  I don't know how long this saga will last this time.  The markets are being held hostage.  But it will get resolved one way or the other eventually.  The RUT hit a new high yesterday.  With the small stocks out performing and the summation index in a zone where it has turned around in the past, I can't be too bearish here.  I still think that a summer rally is in the cards.  I'll probably be looking at the SPY July calls and the GE July calls as well.  But those decisions will have to come over the weekend.  The recent bounce for gold stalled today and the gold shares traded lower.  I'm going to remain patient there for now.  The ABX October calls remain on the radar but the purchase will be put off until they get short term oversold again.  This trade remains viable as long as gold holds the $1150 level.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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