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Thursday, June 25, 2015

Another weak session as the Dow fell 75 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Still no resolution for Greece and the next meeting is this weekend.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but they are still in the overbought zone.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY July calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session.  Weakness in the final hour the past 2 days isn't a positive.  However I will maybe attempt this trade again tomorrow.  GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume.  The techncials have rolled over here as well.  We are at the 50 day moving average here.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold again was off just a bit as was the US dollar.  If Greece is about to blow up, wouldn't you expect to see a rise in gold?  Maybe I'm just not seeing things correctly.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  I'm still interested in getting some ABX October calls.  I suppose when the weekly charts are oversold I'll give them a shot.  Getting there but not yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Could the market fall apart here on a Greek debacle over the weekend?  Well yes, it could because it is an unknown if it happens and the market likes certainty.  I guess the question is whether it will or not.  We need to stick to the technical indicators though.  The TRAN just broke to a fresh low.  But the small stocks are holding up better here.  The summation index is moving lower but is in an area that it has turned around in the past.  So we have a few conflicting signals and that makes the trading tougher than usual.  If we do head lower tomorrow, I'll probably try the SPY July calls again.  But the sidelines may just be the best place to be.  A case can be made to let this Greek drama play out and then trade from there.  Or I could simply focus on the GE trade only.  I'll consider the various scenarios overnight and try to come up with a profitable strategy.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

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