Monday, June 29, 2015
Well, so much for the summer doldrums. The Dow fell 350 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and about to go through the zero line. This area is rarely breached and when it is, the market falls apart. That is what we have going on here. Crash is another term folks like to use but it seems events are more controlled these days. The Greek drama took a turn for the worse. I'll be the first to say that I did not see that coming. I figured we would get the usual last minute deal and be done with it. I also thought that the summation index would turn around before it broke the zero line. Obviously, I was wrong. At least I didn't buy any calls last week. GE was off almost 1/2 on good volume. I did place a couple orders here for the July calls but they were not filled. I may try again tomorrow but the risk in getting long anything here is very high. That said, this could be an opportunity for a decent trade if the timing is correct. But I must admit in a headline driven market environment, it will be like playing with fire. Gold could only manage a $5 gain on the futures despite the turmoil and the fact that the US dollar got crushed today as well. If this is all gold can do in times like these then perhaps not trading gold at all is the correct path going forward. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on summer average volume. Why both gold and the US dollar didn't have big rallies today is the question. My thought is that what we are seeing is a worldwide margin call, with players selling whatever they can to cover their exposure. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired after a volatile trading session. But where do we go from here? The Greek drama has the markets full attention and it won't be settled for at least a week as of today. Trading in this atmosphere is dangerous. If you can get long close to the bottom, you'll do fine. But nobody knows where the bottom is. We are oversold and staying there. I'll be checking the charts tonight but we are in no mans land. I would still like to try the GE July calls though. The technical set up is textbook so far but could be negated due to the market unrest. I probably should have the discipline to just step aside here and let the market settle itself out. I will most likely attempt this trade in the coming days but not with a lot of money. However my ideas lately and my take on the market situation have been off the mark lately. We get the end of the month and quarter tomorrow but it probably won't matter. Plus the employment report on Friday. The market is controlled by whatever happens in Europe at the moment. We'll see if the foreign markets continue lower overnight as we are held hostage by the headlines overseas.