Tuesday, June 30, 2015
The market stopped going down today as the Dow gained 23 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. The markets are hostage to the Greek drama. With a potential vote on the euro there not due until Sunday, you get the idea of the situation that we're in. Oversold and staying there technically for the major market averages. It is not impossible to trade here but it is a guessing game with the headline effect in play. You will want to be long at some point but nobody knows when that point will be. I'll probably not try the SPY July calls at this rate. GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. I did place an overnight order for some GE July calls but it wasn't filled. I'm willing to try the calls here because the technical set up is in place to get long. What I mean by that is on the weekly charts we had a high volume breakout from a consolidation zone and we are now falling back to test the zone. It should hold and GE should move higher from there. Timing is the key as usual. Gold was off $7 today as the US dollar was higher. No flight to safety for gold and that is a negative despite being oversold on a short and medium term basis. The XAU and GDX continue with fractional losses. Gold, silver and the precious metal shares all are on the verge of breaking down out of their congestion zones on the weekly charts. I am still considering the ABX October calls though for the seasonal rally trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The question is what to do here and there are no easy answers. You can only guess which way the Greek vote will go if we get that far. We also have a long holiday weekend coming up in the US. The McClellan oscillator was in the area that it has bounced from recently after yesterday. If today was all the bounce we get, then we're heading lower. The summation index is passing through the zero line and that's trouble as we have seen. I'm remaining cautious here and will probably only attempt the GE trade in the next couple of sessions. Beginning of a new month tomorrow so usually there would be some positive money flows. But anything goes in this current state of affairs. The employment report on Friday will only be a sideshow in my opinion. Yesterday the overnight action was positive and that helped stem the decline. We'll see how it goes tonight. Interesting times.