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Wednesday, July 01, 2015

We started the month off with a nice gain as the Dow rose 138 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower but could turn around with a positive day tomorrow.  It is beginning to look like Mondays decline was a one day wonder.  The market is shrugging off the turmoil in Greece.  Anything can happen with the vote in Greece over the weekend but it looks like the market has other things on its mind.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are starting to turn up from the oversold region.  GE gained almost a dime on average volume.  I did place another overnight order for the July calls but it wasn't filled.  I still think that I'm going to attempt this trade in the next couple of weeks if the option premiums get to where I'd like them.  The technical set up remains intact.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar had another good day.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX fell 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares appear to be breaking down here and that can't be good for gold.  But I'd still like to try the ABX October calls at some point here in July.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm getting the feeling that the market is going to go higher here.  A 350 point loss with no follow through is not common.  If we break down tomorrow, then this idea is wrong.  But I can see a scenario where the Greek vote is to stay in the euro and the markets rally on Monday.  We'll have to get through the employment report first though.  So we'll see how the market does tomorrow and decide what to do from there.  The employment report could have an effect on gold as well.  A good number should help the US dollar and therefore depress gold.  Or vice versa depending on the data.  But I must say that things are not looking good for the precious metals and the fundamentals remain bearish.  Then why attempt a trade with the calls?  Things do not stay down forever but more importantly the gold shares are oversold on a short and medium term basis.  The probability of some type of advance form these levels is better than 50% in my opinion.  All we can do is put the odds in our favor because the markets as usual will go where they want.  We'll watch what happens overnight, get the employment report tomorrow and then close out a shortened holiday week.

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