Friday, July 10, 2015
A relief short covering rally today as the Dow gained 211 points to finish off a wild week. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The China stock market snap back along with the potential Greek deal were the reasons given today for the rise. We'll take what we can get. Perhaps we'll know by Monday if the Greek deal is for real but that saga won't all of a sudden go away. As for China, half the stocks on their exchange aren't even open for trading. But considering the US market price action yesterday, today was encouraging. But we're still in the headline risk situation. I'd like to think that we are putting in a bottom here at the 200 day moving average. Perhaps the summation index can start to move higher again but until it actually does, we don't have the all clear just yet. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light. Looks like I'll be holding on to the GE July calls until the earnings are out in a week. They are still showing a loss. Gold bounced around today but finished the session little changed despite a drop in the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume. The gold shares remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis. I'm still looking at the October calls for the precious metal shares. I may start placing my order next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. This was quite a crazy week in the markets. Back and forth we went with volatility in the forefront. However where we go from here is what matters most. Option expiration week is coming up but I'm not sure the usual positive bias will appear. Plenty of economic data is on the agenda along with Yellen chattering in front of Congress. Not to mention the ongoing global concerns that plague the environment at the moment. So attempting to trade the SPY next week will be treacherous. I will probably have to wait until things calm down and we get a valid technical set up. I think that we will be moving higher next week but that is strictly a guess. Obviously, anything could happen. We'll once again have to follow the headlines over the weekend. Gold and the gold shares remain mired in a downtrend. The fundamentals are negative. There is no interest there. The time to buy things is when nobody else wants them. We are certainly at that stage with the precious metals complex. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to determine if now is the time. Otherwise I'll most likely be holding the GE July calls until the earnings on Friday and staying out of any SPY July trades next week. Plenty to ponder this weekend. It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a rest.