Monday, July 06, 2015
Another day, another Greek sell off as the Dow fell 46 points on average volume. The advance/declines were not quite 2 to 1 negative. We sold off hard on the open, with an over 150 point loss but it wasn't as bad as it could have been. We spent the rest of the session coming back. The summation index continues lower. Markets around the globe sold off on the Greek referendum results. It's still a headline driven market. However given the uncertainties, the market held up rather well. Perhaps the market knows more than we do. I'm not trying any SPY trades here. GE dropped almost 1/2 on light volume. I did place an order for the GE July calls and it was filled. So we'll see what happens. The relative strength for GE today was poor. But I have liked this technical set up for a while and today finally have entered the next trade. I may hold on until the earnings due on expiration Friday. Unless this thing tanks and then I'll have to take the loss. Gold rose $6 and the US dollar was a bit higher today. Not exactly a huge flight to safety. The gold shares found some life again as the XAU rose 7/8 and GDX gained 1/4. Volume was average. ABX had a strong session on better volume. I'm not going to chase the gold shares here. But it is possible that we have put in the bottom. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we continue with the Greek drama and what will happen tomorrow? It is really impossible to predict what will happen. The way the stock market has held up though perhaps means that things will be getting better for prices before they get worse. That's a guess as usual. Technically the major stock indices remain oversold on a short term basis. Staying on the sidelines is an option and perhaps the best strategy at the moment. We are still in a zone where things could fall apart. I am trying the GE trade here but it appears that if it doesn't hold now, the uptrend line in place on the daily chart will be violated. We just nudged through it today. So tomorrow it will be important for GE to hang in there. Gold and the dollar did not react as strongly as one would suspect today. Perhaps the theory of Grexit has already been priced in. But tomorrow could be another story. We'll see how the foreign markets do overnight and await the next headline from Europe.