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Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Up we go as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have all turned up and are moving higher.  The small stocks have shown relative strength and that's a positive.  The only caveat is the light volume but it is summer.  The positive expiration bias appears to be in place.  I'd expect new all time highs to appear as we move forward.  It won't be a straight line up but the tide has turned in my opinion.  GE gained almost 20 cents on light volume.  My GE July calls are now showing a very slight profit.  I'll still be holding until the Friday earnings release unless we get some crazy upside in the next 2 days.  Highly unlikely.  Gold was little changed on the session despite a weaker US dollar.  The retail sales report today was less than expected and the dollar sold off a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses again on light volume.  The gold shares remain oversold on a short and medium term basis.  I am still considering the ABX October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems that Greece and China don't matter anymore after 4 days up in row.  We're due for a pause at the least.  Perhaps the Yellen appearance before Congress tomorrow will throw some cold water on this parade.  But I don't think that it will matter going forward.  The trend is up and perhaps this is the summer rally that I was looking for a month ago.  The technicals are pointing higher.  Still no love for gold.  Perhaps the malaise here will simply carry on.  It will be risky to try the gold share calls.  But what trade doesn't have risk?  I'm keeping an eye on things.  My guess is that the dollar will rally on the Fed testimony tomorrow.  We also have the Fed beige book.  So it will be a day filled with the Fed.  We'll see what happens in the foreign markets tonight and see what tomorrow brings.

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