Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Some downside today and that's not unexpected. The Dow fell 181 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 181 market would suggest. The overall market is stronger than the Dow here and that's a positive. I do not expect any kind of extended decline to happen. We've had a nice run to the upside so some backing and filling before we head higher is in order. If we get an oversold reading in the short term, the SPY calls will be in order. GE was off almost 1/3 on summer average volume. No trades here for now. Gold fell a few bucks on the futures despite a decent drop in the US dollar. That isn't bullish. The gold shares tried to stabilize, with the XAU up 1 1/3 and GDX ahead by 1/3. Volume remains off the charts heavy. ABX was up almost a dime with the same crazy volume. Blown out for the gold shares and in crash mode. My ABX October calls are under water and probably not coming back. I'll hold them for now and probably until the earnings report at least. I would not be surprised to see some more downside first though. Mentally I'm feeling bit tired. The short term indicators for some of the major indices are starting to roll over. My feeling is that they will not turn all the way down to oversold. With the small stocks leading the way, the trend should and will be higher for the stock indexes. It will not be a straight line up though. Plenty of time in the August option cycle to make a trade but patience is advised for now. Gold is trying to hold the $1100 area but it probably won't. The gold shares have already collapsed. If you have a long term perspective, buying the gold shares here will work in your favor. They may go lower but most of the damage has already been done. The time to get things is when nobody else wants them in this game. We'll see if the overseas markets follow the Dow lower overnight.