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Thursday, July 23, 2015

Still lower as the Dow fell 119 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Better than average volume to the downside lately and that is interesting.  I still don't think that we are headed for an extended decline but what do I know lately?  The summation index will be heading lower after todays action.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have now more than rolled over and are heading lower.  Not a good oversold reading here just yet.  The tech stocks have led the decline.  GE was off 1/3 today on light volume.  GE recently stalled at its 50 day moving average.  Gold fell about 5 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower today as well.  The gold shares continue to get crushed as the XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX fell 3/8.  Volume remains heavy here.  I believe that this is the final washout for the gold shares.  The end is probably near.  ABX shed almost 1/3 on still heavy volume today.  My ABX October calls are big losers.  Even the snap back rally that will eventually take place won't be enough to save them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see how the trading week ends as it has been weak so far.  With the exception of yesterday, the Dow has been leading us lower and that isn't the most bearish of scenarios.  However my ideas have been off lately and that is something to consider as well.  Commodities are getting throw out the window here.  If you have a longer term perspective it wouldn't be a bad idea to put some money to work in that area.  But we are here to trade and patience is a better course of action at the moment.  If the S&P 500 continues lower for the next couple of days, the SPY August calls will be the preferred vehicle.  So we'll see.  We'll watch the overnight action in the foreign markets and finish off the week tomorrow.

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