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Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Crazy summer days as the NYSE had to shut down for 3 hours today because of a computer glitch.  This is the world that we live in.  Whatever we did yesterday was effectively erased as the Dow fell 261 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term technicals have turned back down for the major stock indices.  Greece, China and now the US are all causing problems.  I'm beginning to believe that we are at a point where the market is about to crack.  The US market has held up well despite the troubles around the world.  But after today, you can't say that anymore.  Throw in the proximity to the summation index zero line and it's a recipe for trouble.  I could be wrong.  GE was off almost 60 cents on average volume.  The uptrend line form January on the daily candlestick chart has been decisively broken.  My GE July calls are now losers.  This looks like it will be a cut the loss trade unless there is a dramatic turnaround soon.  But that is highly doubtful with this market environment.  Waiting another week for the earnings is probably not a good idea.  Gold rose about $10 today on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume today.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Yesterdays market action gave some hopes for the bulls but today that has been wiped out.  I do not see anything that would change the bearish scenario in the short term.  Caution is advised and the sidelines isn't a bad place to be.  It is looking like a worldwide sell off of stocks and commodities.  A universal margin call if you will.  We'll know when it's over when we get some type of panic sell off.  Hasn't happened yet.  The Fed minutes were a non event today, so you know we're not in the normal market circumstances.  The safe havens of gold and the US dollar are not attracting money like they usually do.  So it is a dangerous time to be playing this game as usual.  No summer doldrums so far for this year.  We'll keep an eye on all the headlines tonight and see what kind of surprises we get tomorrow.

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