Tuesday, July 28, 2015
The bounce arrived as expected as the Dow rose 189 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Even with todays action the summation index is still heading lower. In the days to come we will see if this is just an oversold reaction or the beginning of the next leg up. The short term technical indicators have turned up for the major stock indexes. But that doesn't mean that we can't turn around again. The TRAN had a very good day so perhaps the trend has turned. If the TRAN can break through the downtrend line that has been in effect since March, that would be a clue. The McClellan oscillator hit an area yesterday where previous rallies have begun. GE was up an 1/8 or so on average volume. Bouncing off the 200 day moving average here. Gold was off a bit on the futures as the US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU was up 3/4, while GDX gained 1/8. Volume was lighter than lately. ABX was flat on the session but volume remained high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get the Fed statement tomorrow and it should be on course for a rate hike in September. That is what the market expects. Yesterday was the time to purchase some SPY calls. Being preoccupied with my ABX trade obviously has its disadvantages when other opportunities are missed. This could be the case right now. The oversold signal for at least a bounce was valid and I have missed it. But you've got to keep moving on. As usual the mental capital wasted always is worth more than the money. I'm still cautious here though because of the proximity of the summation index zero line. But there is always the chance we'll hold there as well. The game is never easy. I may just buy ABX outright tomorrow if it heads lower. That will be a longer term proposition and not a trade. After the Fed tomorrow we'll get the first read on the second quarter GDP on Thursday. End of the month on Friday. So considering that it's the summer, it should be rather busy. The volume lately has been heavier than we've seen in a while as well. All eyes are on the Chinese stock market now, as the decline there has reappeared. I guess we've forgotten about Greece for now. So we'll watch the overseas action tonight and wait on the Fed tomorrow.