Wednesday, July 15, 2015
A pause in the action today as the Dow fell 3 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. We aren't simply going to go up in a straight line but the trend has turned positive. Weakness can be purchased in my opinion. The economic data out today was in line with expectations. The Fed didn't say anything unexpected and will conclude this procedure tomorrow. We may get some gyrations in the next couple of days before expiration but I think the wholesale selling is done for now. GE was up about 1/8 on light volume. My GE July calls are showing a slight profit. I'm still holding on for the earnings report on Friday, which will make or break this trade. The technical indicators for GE have turned up on a short term basis and there is room to go higher there. Anything can happen here. Gold fell on a stronger US dollar. The precious metal futures were off $5 and were lower than that during the trading session. We have closed below the $1150 level. The XAU fell 1 2/3 and GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was better to the downside. I did purchase some ABX October calls today. They are showing a slight loss. Oversold and staying there on a short and medium term basis for gold and the gold shares. Todays trade could be the proverbial trying to catch a falling knife idea. That never ends well. However I was willing to take the chance here, so we'll see what happens. ABX has broken the $10 level. Earnings are due the first week in August. Gold is showing no signs of stabilizing so this trade may simply just be a mistake. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The McClellan oscillator had a nice move higher from the recent lows and that is saying this rally has legs. The weekly technical indicators for the major stock indices have turned around as well. So I'm of the belief that a summer rally has begun. Perhaps earnings will now be the catalyst for higher equity prices. That's a guess as usual. Waiting on GE earnings. It's possible that gold and silver are about to break down here. There is no buying interest and the indicators have rolled over again. If that is the case, we'll probably know pretty soon and I'll have to cut the loss on the ABX trade that I put on today. I'll be keeping an eye on things. Looks like there is trouble in the streets of Greece so we'll have to see if that affects the markets. I'll be watching what happens around the world overnight. Tomorrows blog will be later than usual due to a scheduled commitment.