Thursday, July 02, 2015
Really just a waiting game today as the Dow fell 27 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The employment report came in about where expected and wasn't a market event as it usually is. The stock indices are still being held hostage by Greece. The vote there supposedly on whether or not to stay in the euro is Sunday. And then what? How long will it take to count the votes and there still has to be some kind of deal on the debt situation there regardless of the vote. I took the cautious approach and did not make any trades before the long weekend here. We are still short term oversold on the major stock indexes. The summation index is trying to turn around here. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Two weeks to go in the July option cycle with earnings due on expiration Friday. I still like the technical set up here and will get some calls if the price of GE hits the uptrend line on the daily chart at around 26.50. Gold fell $5 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit lower. The gold shares found some buyers though. The XAU rose 1 1/4 and GDX gained 1/3. Volume was average. This is the first time in a while that we have seen the gold shares outperform gold. I'm still a fan of the ABX October gold share calls. But it is possible that GDX may be the safer play if there is such a thing. Something to think about. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I really think that the market is going to head higher from here regardless of the Greek drama. We're oversold and due for a summer rally to start. Plus the summation index appears to possibly be putting in a double bottom here near the zero line. That would mean the imminent collapse that I thought would occur at the beginning of the week isn't going to happen. I think that the fact that we saw absolutely no downside follow through from a down 350 market tells us so. I could be wrong. I think that next week I'll be looking to purchase some GE calls and perhaps the ABX calls as well. The market will still be at the mercy of headline risk. But the news could very well be viewed as positive and a relief rally with short covering could ensue. That is really the scenario that I think will happen. If traders wanted to sell they probably did it before this holiday weekend. That's my best guess at the moment. There isn't a lot of economic data due next week. Not that it matters in an event driven environment like this. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend along with watching the headlines out of Europe. It's a long summertime holiday weekend. Time for a break.