Friday, July 31, 2015
A bit of weakness to close out the month as the Dow fell 56 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. This should turn the summation index back up. The short term technical are mid-range for the S&P 500. I do think we are heading for higher prices. The beginning of the month money flows should kick in on Monday. Plenty of economic data due next week, with the employment report on Friday the key release. GE was flat on the session and volume was very light. Nothing doing there for now. Gold found some buyers as the futures were up six bucks on a weaker US dollar. The XAU was up 7/8 and GDX rose 1/3. Volume was lighter than it's been. ABX was flat on the day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Three weeks to go in the August option cycle. We have yet to see the summer doldrums appear in the stock market but that could change going forward. After we get through the employment numbers, things may slow down. That's a guess as usual. As I said the short term technical indicators for the most part are mid-range for the major stock indices. So you can make a case for either direction. The small stocks have acted a bit better here and that's a positive. With the summation index turning around, I think you have to look for higher equity prices moving forward. Gold has moved sideways for a couple weeks. It could just be a consolidation after we dropped off from the $1180 area. That's what it looks like. $1080 is the new level to watch on the downside. It's held so far but there is nothing to say the decline in gold will stop there. I'm banking on the positive seasonality showing up but it's simply a guess if that will happen this time around. My ABX October calls remain big losers. I'll be going over the market data this weekend as always. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.