Monday, August 03, 2015
We begin the month of August with a whimper as the Dow fell 91 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. No technical damage was done and we finished well off of the lows for the session. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward, although August has a reputation of not being the kindest time period for stocks. No reason given for todays decline with the exception of weaker commodities once again. We'll see if we get any follow through downside tomorrow. GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up. Bouncing off of the 200 day moving average here. Gold fell about $5 on the futures as the US dollar had a positive day. The gold shares continue to get pummeled. The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX dropped 1/2. Volume remains strong here. ABX was off another 1/3 and volume was still good. My ABX October calls are major losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The summation index is still heading higher so I don't think that today is the beginning of something stronger to the downside. Of course that could change going forward. The employment report on Friday should be the catalyst for movement one way or the other. But we still have the rest of the week to get through. The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the major stock indices. The gold shares have broken down from the latest consolidation zone. Oversold on all time frames and staying there. This is quite a decline for these issues. I'm still a believer that if you have a longer term time horizon, you won't go wrong picking up these stocks here. But on the short term it appears we will be going lower yet still. ABX earnings due after the bell on Wednesday. That will probably seal the fate of my ABX October calls trade. We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.