Thursday, August 06, 2015
The Dow falls again as we are now short term oversold. The most watched index dropped 120 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 120 market would suggest. That has been the theme lately. Declines with not really bad breadth. Another factor lately has been the heavy volume, especially for summer. I'm not sure what it all means though. The small stocks took a pounding today as well. We will have to see how things turn out with the employment report. I don't know what to expect there. GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold was up a bit on the futures today as the US dollar had a slight loss. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/4. Volume was good for the gold shares but they came off of their highs. ABX was up 1/3 on heavy volume. The earnings weren't all that good and they cut the dividend but the stock rose anyway. That's bullish in my book. Wasn't enough to help my ABX October calls though. We'll need to see a lot of up days to help cut the loss there. Maybe if the employment report is weak we'll see a pop for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Dow did hit a new closing low for the past few months today. The 50 day moving average is about to pass through the 200 day moving average as well. That would constitute a sell signal there. I'm still leaning bullish though as the breadth hasn't collapsed for the overall market. The summation index is now moving sideways. I suppose anything can happen here. Hopefully tomorrow will give us an indication of where we're going. The major averages have really been moving simply sideways so far this year. Gold is going nowhere fast and the gold shares have been slaughtered. I still say the gold shares are a screaming buy down here on a longer term basis. But we're here to trade. We will have to see if the positive seasonality kicks in for gold this year. All eyes on the jobs numbers tomorrow.