Thursday, August 27, 2015
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 369 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. This might stop the summation index from continuing lower. The decline is over. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. Yes, things can change fast in this game and they just did. The summation reading is around -1000 and should turn around from here. Although the decline was severe, it actually could have been worse but the momentum readings did not go as far as the 2008 financial crisis. If we get short term overbought in the next few days you could try the SPY September puts but it would strictly be short term. I think the better trades will be from the long side from here. I could be wrong. The volatility is still out there. GE rose a buck on very heavy volume. Yesterday was the day for the November calls here. At least that's what it looks like right now. I'll keep an eye on it. Gold didn't do much today despite a rise in the US dollar. The gold shares decided to follow the overall market today. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was heavy. Perhaps with the gold shares out performing today, we'll see another rally here. But one day does not make a trend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Disappointed of course for not playing this bounce. One thing for sure is that we will not be seeing such huge moves in the stock indices indefinitely. Option premiums will eventually reflect this and must be taken into consideration. Plenty of time left in the September option cycle. But the easy oversold bounce money has been made. Things will be more difficult from here. If we roll over, we can try the calls. If we head higher perhaps the puts. But I'll have to be paying closer attention than usual, due to the market environment. The bull market from the lows of 2009 is still intact. That up trend line was not broken. Gold has had its oversold, dead cat bounce. It still remains unloved. If it can hold up here and turn back up perhaps we can see more than a two week rally. But that is probably just wishful thinking on my part. My ABX October calls are still big losers. We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action and close out this crazy week tomorrow.