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Wednesday, August 26, 2015

An oversold bounce to the upside as the Dow rallied 619 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Is the decline over?  It could be.  Is this a chance to get short again?  That is a possibility as well.  I did not get the SPY September calls today and perhaps this was the best opportunity.  We are still oversold and there could be more upside to come.  We now have support on the S&P 500 at the 1870 level.  It looks like we may have bottomed out on the McClellan oscillator in the -300s and not below the -400 level that I was looking for.  But it is a day to day challenge right now.  There will still be plenty of opportunities in the September option cycle I believe.  GE was up 3/4 on very heavy volume.  I'm looking at the November calls here.  No hurry though.  Gold fell again today on the stronger US dollar and the stock market rally.  The gold futures lost another $13.  The gold shares continued their recent slump and closed below the previous lows for the year.  The XAU dropped 2 1/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  My ABX October calls are now almost dead.  The gold shares are weaker than the metal itself and that is bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The question now is whether or not we will get a V bottom for the market or not.  I don't have the answer.  We also don't know if the recent lows will hold.  So as usual there are a lot of questions without any definite answers.  I'm thinking that the worst is over as the technical readings for some indicators went off the grid.  But I cannot be 100% certain.  I'm still going to be on the lookout for some SPY September calls at some point.  But if we get short term overbought, I will try the puts.  I'm also looking at the longer term calls for GE.  The gold shares are leading the way down in the precious metals complex and that is a negative.  I did think that these issues were being dumped along with the overall market.  But when we rally over 600 points and the gold shares drop, you can forget about that theory.  The gold shares remain unloved and in retrospect, I should have just taken the loss when we had the mini rally two weeks ago.  However looking in the rear view mirror now is a waste of time.  Certainly interesting times for the stock market.  We'll watch what happens in the overseas markets tonight and see if the world can rally with the US.     

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