Thursday, August 20, 2015
And here we are. The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 358 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The trend is down and we are breaking through the support at 2040 on the S&P 500. The market is falling apart at the zero line in the summation index. This is a rare occurrence and not to be ignored. We danced around the zero line for a few weeks and now we are moving through. Rallies can be shorted until further notice. I don't know how far and how long this will last. It may even be too late but we'll have to see how things pan out. GE was off 1/2 on good volume and has broken the 200 day moving average decisively. There is another clue as to where we're heading. Gold was up over $20 on the futures as the US dollar fell for a second straight day. The fear factor is propping up gold for now in a flight to safety. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX was up 5/8. Volume was good. The gold shares are still lagging gold and that isn't the most bullish of scenarios going forward. ABX was up 1/3 on good volume but came off of the highs for the session. My ABX October calls are getting back to break even but not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing but volatility this summer and that has been a surprise to me. The market is in trouble here. Caution is still advised. The first area of support is the 2000 to 1990 level on the S&P 500. We should get there. If that doesn't hold then 1900 is on the table. We closed on the low of the session today and that is bearish. I'll be looking at the SPY September puts on any rebound. But we may just go straight down from here. Gold has found some interest. However it's taking a market collapse to get it moving. The first resistance is at $1180. After that there's a down trend line at around $1225. GDX has resistance at 18 and then again at 19. The gold shares aren't in the lead here and that should lend itself to some consolidation at some point. But who knows? If we get an all out rout in the stock market anything can happen. We've still got over 5 weeks in the favorable seasonal time frame for gold and that seems to be happening this year. But as always the markets go where they want. Overnight should be very interesting as markets around the globe react to todays US market decline. Expiration Friday tomorrow.