Monday, August 17, 2015
A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow climbed 67 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow was off over 100 to start the day. We came all the way back and then some. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that is a positive. There is also the expiration week positive bias to consider. The only caveat is the light volume but it is summer and the next couple of weeks should be slow despite todays volatility. GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light. No trades here for now. Gold was up a bit on the futures as was the US dollar. The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good here. I'd expect some more consolidation for the gold shares before we can perhaps get another leg up. ABX was up about 20 cents on OK volume. My October calls there are still mired in the red. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Today was a sleepy Monday in August. But was it? The game is always interesting. Now what would make things sell off early in the morning and then make up all that ground and more? No news to speak of. Now would all the hedge funds, banks, pension funds, investment companies, etc. get their selling for the week out of the way early on Monday of expiration week in the summer. That would be a perfect set-up to purchase your index calls and watch them rise in value pre-expiration. Now nobody is really paying that much attention are they? My only regret is that I'm not in there to play along. We'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Getting short term overbought and might be there with upside tomorrow. Gold had some interest last week but until we see higher values there it looks like a dead cat bounce. Perhaps the Fed minutes on Wednesday will get things going. Inflation data out that day as well. We'll watch the overnight action in the foreign markets and go from there.