Friday, August 14, 2015
A drift higher today as the Dow gained 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways but the breadth was better today. Today finally felt like a summer day in the stock market. Expiration week coming up and so I do think the positive bias will be in effect. I do not think that I'll be trying the SPY August calls though. Probably too late for that. GE was up almost 1/3 and the volume was light. If GE is a precursor for the overall market, more upside is on the way. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The rise in the gold shares has been put on hold for now. There's nothing wrong with some consolidation here. My ABX October calls are still well in the red. I'll need to see some more upside there to hopefully cut the loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still looking for a positive resolution to the months long trading channel in the S&P 500. Of course the timing remains unknown if this does occur. In the near term the SPY calls remain the choice for now. The only caveat is that todays rally was on light volume and light volume rallies cannot be trusted. But I do think that there is more room to move higher in the beginning of next week. That's a guess as usual however the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have moved up. The best time to purchase the calls has passed. I chose the safer route of the sidelines for now. Gold and the gold shares finally had a positive week. It is being called a dead cat bounce, which could be the case. Time will tell on that but it is a start in the right direction for the bulls. I'll harp on the positive seasonal factor for gold here again. Perhaps this year it will happen in the coming weeks. Not much else to say with the final two weeks of August upon us. Perhaps the summer doldrums will finally arrive at the end of the month. There will be plenty of players on their family vacations before September. It is something that must be factored into the trading. But it hasn't affected trading yet as this year has been a volatile one for the summer so far. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.