Friday, August 28, 2015
A quiet end to a very volatile week as the Dow fell 11 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a positive. The summation index has turned back to the upside. The decline is over in my opinion. That doesn't mean we won't head lower again but the bottom that has formed probably won't be broken. We had blow out readings on some of the daily technical indicators this week and now we need to digest that. GE rose 1/8 or so and the volume was good. Just crazy movement for this stock during the week as it followed the overall market. I'm still looking at the November calls here. Gold was up over $10 on the futures despite another gain in the US dollar. The XAU tacked on another 2 points and GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good. Not sure why gold decided to move up in the past couple of days. My ABX October calls are still very much in the red. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It has been a volatile summer for the stock market. Certainly not what I expected. The normal summer doldrums did not show up. It's hard to say exactly what to expect from here but the bottom appears to have been put in. Declines can be bought. With three weeks to go in the September option cycle the game plan will be as follows. If we get to short term overbought, then try the SPY puts on a short term basis. If we get short term oversold, you can try the SPY calls on a short term basis. I do not expect the recent wild volatility to return. One of the problems going forward will be the decay of the option premiums. Premiums are higher than normal due to the volatility. As things slow down the volatility premium will be sucked out of both the calls and the puts. It is another factor to consider when trading for the rest of this option cycle. As of right now if we see higher S&P 500 prices in the beginning of the week it could set up the puts for the end of the week. But I will have to check the charts over the weekend. I think we have already passed the normal Fibonacci retracement levels from the low. There will still be opportunity going forward in the September option cycle. Gold remains an afterthought even with the crazy stock market atmosphere. The rise in the US dollar this week is a headwind as well. Commodity indexes got a bounce this week despite the rise in the dollar. Perhaps the precious metals positive seasonality will come back. But that is more hope than reality at this point. The short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up here though. We'll see. Plenty of data to digest next week including the Feds beige book and the employment report. This week must be put in the rear view mirror and we have to trade from here. Opportunity was missed by me last week but it cannot affect how I look at things going forward. Never an easy time in this game. I'll do the work over the weekend and get ready for Monday morning. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.