Tuesday, August 25, 2015
It was a one day reversal to the downside as we fell apart in the final hour. The Dow lost 204 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The day began up over 400 points but we couldn't hold on. The summation index continues lower. I don't know what exactly is happening here and I certainly don't know what will happen tomorrow. I did peg support for the S&P 500 at 1850 but it looks like we'll get through there tomorrow. The bull market up trend line comes in at 1750-1700. Can we drop that far this week? I do want to try the SPY September calls but you really have to pay attention and be quick to take a profit if there is any. Perhaps I should remain on the sidelines as well. GE lost 60 cents on heavy volume. I'm looking at the November GE calls but it may be early and probably is. Gold took a hit today as the futures lost $13 on a stronger US dollar. The XAU lost almost 2 and GDX fell almost 1/2. Volume was heavy. It appears the recent bounce in gold was of the dead cat variety. If a global market sell off can't find buyers for the precious metals, than what can? My ABX October calls are still losers. The seasonal strength for gold has evaporated for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Interesting times. The McClellan oscillator got to -345 yesterday but I'd like to see a reading in the -400s to try the SPY September calls. That would be the ideal scenario. But the market is in unknown waters and the environment is treacherous. The fact that we could not hold on to the gains today does not bode well for tomorrow. The falling knife syndrome is apparent. There is some kind of problem in the world stock markets. Oversold, staying there and moving lower. I'll have to re-check the longer term charts tonight. In a market such as this things become compressed. What I mean by that is that everything with price moves faster. As with todays rally that has already sold off. Movements that normally take days only take hours. You have to be nimble and you have to be quick. It isn't for everybody and there is no shame just stepping aside until we get back to a more normal marketplace. That said, I'm still going to try and find an entry point for the SPY September calls. The Shanghai market is crashing and taking everybody else with it seems to be the popular story line. But we really don't know the underlying reasons for the decline. So we'll watch what happens around the world tonight and see what tomorrow brings.