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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

All I can say is what a day.  The Dow was pounded early on and down over 250 points.  However it came all the way back and finished the session basically unchanged.  The advance/declines were about even and the volume was very heavy.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had slight gains after being routed.  Did we put in a meaningful bottom today?  We did make it all the way down to the lower portion of the extended trading range in the S&P 500.  So perhaps now maybe we'll see a run back up to the top of the range and new highs.  But tomorrow is another day and the volatility this summer has not relented.  GE was up 15 cents on good volume.  The 200 day moving average continues to hold.  Gold rallied on a very weak US dollar.  The precious metal futures added $15 on good volume.  The dollar dropped a full point.  The gold shares continued their ascent as the XAU rose 3 1/3, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was heavy here as well.  It appears that in fact the seasonal rally in gold is showing up this year.  ABX was up almost 1/2 on heavy volume.  Maybe the ABX October calls that I have won't lose as much as previously thought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Retail sales due tomorrow.  I have no idea how the market will react.  It would be a positive if we could build off of the comeback that occurred today.  Todays price action looks like a hammer on the daily candlestick charts for the major stock averages.  But as usual the market will go where it wants.  The summation index is trying to move higher but is really just going sideways.  Gold is having quite a week so far.  But it could just be a dead cat bounce.  Time will tell on that.  But there's still a month and a half on the positive seasonal factor here so there may be more room to go on the upside.  That's a guess as usual.  Technically the gold shares are now short term overbought.  A little consolidation would not be a bad thing.  We'll look for some upside in the foreign markets overnight after todays comeback in the Dow.  Then we'll see what happens with the retail sales tomorrow morning.  

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