Friday, July 24, 2015
The market continued its decline as the Dow fell 163 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. I will have to revise my thinking here as we are close to the zero line in the summation index again. There is a possibility of a collapse when we get near that line. I have been bullish since the recent decline but the market may be saying otherwise. Caution is now the word. We are short term oversold on the S&P 500. Some kind of bounce is due. We'll have to pay attention to the quality of that bounce. Today was a pretty negative day with volume and that is not a positive. GE dropped 1/2 on average volume. Not sure exactly what is going on here as well. Perhaps the market knows things that we don't. Gold found some buyers today as the futures ended up a few bucks after being lower early. The US dollar was up a bit today and also came off of its highs. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was very heavy again here and it was a one day reversal to the upside for the gold shares. Could the bottom finally be in for this group? Time will tell. ABX was up 18 cents on extremely heavy volume. Maybe we had some flight to safety with todays decline and the weekend coming up. Didn't do much to help my ABX October calls. I'll need to see a sustained rally to cut the loss there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Interesting times in the stock market so far this summer. This summer has been the most volatile in this time period recently. First it was Greece and right now I don't know what it is. I would not be surprised to see things turn back around to the upside next week. But with the summation index zero line in play, we have to consider the possibility of a dramatic drop as well. I think that I'll be staying on the sidelines unless we get very oversold. I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend. ABX has bounced and it did not hit my price for buying the stock outright. I may have to adjust that order up as well. As I said before, on a longer term time frame the gold shares are at a very attractive level. Nobody wants them and they have been blown out to the downside. The fundamentals for gold are still negative though. However the seasonally favorable time period of August/September is almost upon us. Plenty to ponder in that area at the moment. I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for next week. We've got the Fed next week along with the first look at the second quarter GDP. Plus the end of the month. So I'd expect the volatility to remain in place. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.