Monday, July 27, 2015
Still lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 127 points on good volume. The advance/ declines were about 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and going through the zero line. Short term oversold to be sure here and a bounce should appear in a hurry. I'm not sure that a bounce will hold at this point. Some of the major stock averages are trying to put the brakes on at their 200 day moving averages. I don't know it they'll be successful. I'm still advising caution for now. GE was up 20 cents on summer average volume. GE is bouncing off of its 200 day moving average here. Perhaps GE will be a precursor for things in the overall market. But I will take a wait and see attitude for that. Gold was up around 8 bucks on the futures but that was basically catch up from Fridays aftermarket action. The US dollar was lower on the session. The gold stocks moved back down with the XAU shedding 1 7/8 and GDX off 1/2. Volume remains above average here. ABX was off 1/3 on heavy volume. My ABX October calls remain big losers. I'll be holding them until at least the earnings report due in a couple of weeks. The gold shares remain very oversold on all time frames. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've got the Fed on Wednesday which should be a non-event. Policy should remain unchanged. GDP on Thursday may be the more important topic. That's a guess as usual. The stock market is short term oversold here. We should see some upside to relieve that condition. The problem is that the summation index is heading through the zero line and that gives the chance for a collapse. That doesn't mean that it has to happen. But it does put you on alert that it might occur because we are not in this technical area very often. That is why you have to be careful at this particular juncture. Gold remains unloved, oversold and the selling is back after a day of respite. I'm thinking that we may see more selling going into the end of the month. I don't know how much lower the gold shares can go here. Oversold, staying there and I really think that this is a long term buying opportunity in that area. I could be wrong and often am but the downside here is out of control. I am trying to buy ABX outright a bit lower from here but not in my trading account. The overseas markets were weak as well today. We'll see how they react overnight to the continued downside from the US equity market.