The Dow tried to gain ground today but ended the day with a loss of 25 points. Advance/declines were even and the volume was the usual light. The stock indices are oversold here and a bounce is expected again. No news to speak of today. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. We've broken down on GE and I expect the overall market to follow. We'll see. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all rose around a buck. Volume was light. I canceled my open order for GG June calls. GG has moved off of its oversold condition with todays action. It looks like another missed trade here. The price of the GG options haven't moved that much though. The dollar was weaker today and for once gold was in tandem. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices are oversold. The summation index is heading lower. We have tops beneath tops and lower lows. I could try and play the bounce here but the trend is down. With the dollar and gold holding up well here, I think more downside is expected. Although we might see some upside near term for the stock indices, I don't think any sustainable rallies are imminent. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We started the week off to the downside as the Dow lost 130 points on the current worries about Europe. Volume was light once again. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is pointing down, implying lower prices. I would expect a bounce again, since we are getting oversold once again. But we have been seeing lower highs and lower lows lately. That isn't bullish. GE lost 1/4 on light volume and broke to the downside from its consolidation. So I feel the signs are changing for the stock indices. Gold held up rather well with a gain of $6. The XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM again had fractional gains and losses on light volume. The dollar had a good day today and gold rallied a bit as well. It does look like the flight to safety trade is making a comeback. I placed an open order again for the GG June calls. I'm not as sure about this trade as I was last week but we'll have to see what happens. I may also be late for this as there was plenty of volume in the GG calls today. But that's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So where do we go from here? It's looking like lower prices although maybe not in a straight line down. The dollar rally won't help the stock indices to move up. Perhaps a defensive stance would be the best idea going forward. We'll see what happens with the GG trade attempt.

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow opened lower, almost came all the way back and then closed back down again for a loss of 93 points. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the volume was average. We've been muddling around here for the past few weeks with no real conviction in the stock indices. A case could be made for either direction really. The summation index continues lower and I'm taking my cue from that. Volume has been pretty low lately as well. We need some interest to move the stock indices higher and I haven't seen any of that lately. GE dropped 1/3 on average volume. The weekly chart here looks bearish and it could be a harbinger of things to come for the indices. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 on worries in Europe. This despite a good rise in the dollar. It looks as though the flight to safety trade may be coming back. The XAU only managed a gain of 3/4. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG had a fractional gain. Volume picked up a bit. I canceled my open order for the GG June calls. I will try again next week if I decide to continue in that direction. However once again today a decent rise in the precious metal itself did not carry over to the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio is still a screaming buy but it has been for a few weeks. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Moving to the June option cycle now with the usual 4 weeks minus a day for a holiday. I do believe that I'll be trying a trade in that time frame. Tough call as to where we go from here but that's always the case. I'm still favoring the gold share calls here though. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We continued higher today as the Dow gained 45 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It seems like we are drifting here, as the volume is very light and there seems to be no conviction. Option expiration tomorrow. GE was up 20 cents on light volume. We are back to the 50 day moving average there. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other again. Volume light here as well. The dollar was off 1/3 but it didn't help gold or the gold shares. I still have an open order in for the June GG calls. Trying to move off of an oversold condition for the gold shares. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to say here. We'll get through Friday and look forward to the weekend.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 80 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We will find out soon if this is an actual trading bottom or just a bounce. A case can be made either way I suppose. The summation index is still heading lower but we will have to see what todays action says. No OEX trades in mind with just a couple of days left for this months option cycle. GE gained back what it lost yesterday. Volume was average. Still in a trading range there. Gold gained $15 on the futures. The XAU gained 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The US dollar was flat. I'm leaving in the open order for the GG June calls. Not close to getting filled as of yet. I'm still a believer in this trade for now. The gold shares remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to report today. A simple waiting game is what it is now. We'll see if GG pulls back a bit more to fill the open option order and take it from there. That may or may not happen.

The Dow was lower from the start and ended the day down 68 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down about 170 points this morning. The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and that might lead to a bounce tomorrow. The summation index is heading lower and we will use that as our proxy for what to expect in the near future. Lower prices. We may get a snap back to the uptrend line the was recently violated. We'll see. GE lost a bit of ground again and looks like it wants to break the trading range to the downside. Volume was average. Gold lost $10 today but the XAU gained a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. The dollar was a bit lower today. We could be at the turning point for the gold shares here. Oversold and the technicals are at the bottom of their channels. Perhaps the gold shares will now take the lead over the price of the precious metal. I'm leaving in the open order for the June GG calls. But I don't think that there is any rush here. If the overall stock indices drop, the gold shares will most likely fall or move sideways. My thinking is that the June gold share calls will be my next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow could be an interesting day as todays action portends some upside. However the market seems to have no real direction at the moment. When in doubt, stay out is one market rule. 3 days to go in the May option cycle. I'll leave in the GG option ticket for June and we'll see what happens.

We started the week off with a thud as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The summation index has rolled over. We are oversold, so a bounce would not be out of the question. However we have broken the daily uptrend line from March on the S%P 500. I believe the trend is changing to the downside here. We'll see. GE was down a bit on light volume. We are at the lower end of the recent trading range in GE. A breakout to the downside would confirm the down trend in the stock indices in my view. Gold lost $3 and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. The gold shares were higher early. The dollar was lower today. The gold shares held up better than the stock market today. I did place an order for some GG June calls. I am leaving the order good until canceled. The price I am looking for is at least half of what they are trading for today. We are oversold on the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio is still very much in the buy zone. If there is weakness in the overall stock market, it should carry over to the gold shares. If I can get the price I want for these options, I'm willing to take the risk. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 4 days left in the May option cycle. I do not anticipate any short term trades this week. That could change of course. I'd expect some follow through to the downside in the stock indices tomorrow.

There was a problem with the blog site yesterday. Therefore there is no entry for Thursday. Let me give you a quick recap. The Dow gained 65 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. GE was flat on light volume. Gold gained $5, while the XAU lost 1/2. The US dollar was down a bit. I thought about getting some OEX calls but did not. I did put in an order and it wasn't filled. The uptrend line in the S&P 500 from March is still intact. No clear signal here but we are getting oversold. I would like to try the OEX calls but time is running out and the risk increases with each passing day. Let's move on to today.

The Dow closed out the week with a loss of 100 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. It wasn't much of a week for the stock indices one way or the other. We are about to break the uptrend line on a daily basis in the S&P 500 that has been in effect sine March. The market would have to turn around strongly on Monday to negate that. We'll see. I did want the OEX calls yesterday but after today I'm not so sure. GE lost 1/4 on about average volume. Still in a sideways channel here but on the lower end. No trades here. Gold lost $13 on the futures. It came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. Oversold here and staying that way. I would like to try the gold share calls for June. That could be the next trade at this point. The US dollar continued higher today and finished above its 50 day moving average. The question is how long does the US dollar rally last? That is one of the questions which will definitely affect gold. The Gold/XAU ratio continues to be saying buy gold here. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. There will be a lot to think about over the weekend. However there are only 5 days left in the May option cycle and the short term trades are not my strong suit. Lately, nothing has been. The stock indices look like they could go either way here. The summation index has probably turned back down after today. Gold is oversold and staying there. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. For now though, it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 130 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Almost the exact opposite market action from yesterday. We are right at a daily uptrend line that began in March. Not exactly sure what is going on here. If I had any guts I would try the OEX May calls on weakness tomorrow in anticipation of the uptrend line holding. We'll see. Again, we're not overbought or oversold here. I'll mull it over tonight and make my decision. GE lost about 1/4 on light volume. Still no trades in mind there. Gold was off $15 and the XAU fell 8 1/2. The drop in the gold shares has been relentless. ABX down 2 1/8, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM down 1 1/4. Volume was good. The US dollar had another good day and has had quite a rally in the past 5 trading sessions. I'm still considering the June gold share calls but not yet. The Gold/XAU ratio buy signal is off the charts and hasn't worked this time. That is letting you know that something is up. What exactly I do not know. And that's part of the problem of trying any kind of trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So the question is now what to do tomorrow about an OEX trade. I'll check the charts again overnight. 7 days to go on the May option cycle.

Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back to the upside. I'm still looking for higher prices here the only fly in the ointment would be the volume so far. It has been anemic. Still, it is looking like last weeks sell off is done. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. Still basically moving sideways here, no trades in mind. Gold was up $13 on the futures today but the XAU fell 7/8. ABX and NEM were both flat. GG lost 1/2. Volume was light here as well. I'm going to wait a couple of weeks here before trying the gold share calls again. That is the game plan at the moment. The Gold/XAU ratio is still at a screaming buy. Did not work when I tried it though. The dollar lost a bit today. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The OEX calls have moved up a bit since last week but not as much as expected. We are still in an area of being not overbought or oversold. I am leaning towards higher prices for the stock indices into early next week. If we do see some weakness in the next couple of days, I am not sure if I'll try the calls or not. Stay tuned.

A quiet Monday as the Dow gained 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 12 positive. Perhaps this will turn the summation index positive again. I placed an order for some OEX May calls overnight but it wasn't filled. I will possibly attempt this trade again if we get some weakness. GE was flat on light volume. No trades there for the foreseeable future. Gold was up $11 on the futures and that much again in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX gained 7/8, GG added 1 1/3, while NEM tacked on a point. Volume was light. This is an attempt at a bounce in my opinion. This is the bounce that I mistimed last week in the losing ABX trade. Even though ABX rose today, it did not help the calls that I had. I actually did the right thing when dumping them at the close on Friday. Unless we get some sort of rip roaring gold rally from here. I don't expect that to happen. The US dollar was weaker today. I will need to see gold and the gold shares build a base of some sorts here before trying the calls again. Perhaps for June. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 9 days left in the May option cycle. We are not overbought or oversold here on the stock indices. That makes a trade here trickier than usual. My idea at the moment is to buy weakness. We'll see.

It was an interesting day as the employment report came out stronger than anticipated and the Dow rallied big early. We were up around 175 points in the morning but the market faded and we ended with a gain of 54 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. Even with todays action we are still short term oversold. Perhaps I will give the OEX calls a try next week. But that isn't a given. GE was up a dime on light volume. Still in a trading range there. Gold gained $10 on the futures in a weak bounce. The XAU was up 5/8. The gold shares also rallied good early but then lost all of their gains. ABX was flat, GG up 1/4, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was average. I dumped the ABX May calls for a 50% loss. I should have sold them early in the morning. I wasn't mentally ready to do what had to be done. It was a tough game for me today and I couldn't handle it. That isn't encouraging. The dollar had another huge rally today and it could signal the end of this run for the precious metals. The gold shares are oversold here as well but they are staying there. I tried my trade and it failed. Mentally I'm disappointed that I couldn't do what was necessary this morning. I will have to attempt to regroup over the weekend. The stock market needs to hold up here and I think it will. Commodities on the other hand have rolled over and there should be no playing them from the long side for a while. I'll consider doing an OEX trade next week after checking the charts over the weekend. However after another losing trade, it will be hard to find the confidence necessary to be successful. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a selling spree today as the Dow lost 139 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We broke through the 1340 level on the S&P 500. Unless we get a sharp turnaround tomorrow, the trend will be changing to down. I expected today to be a waiting game for tomorrows employment report but that was not the case. All asset classes were liquidated today and we haven't seen that for a while. Something is going on but I haven't a clue as yet. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. We're still in a trading range here. Gold got clobbered again as the US dollar had a sharp rally from oversold levels. The dollar rally probably contributed to the stock market decline as well. Gold lost over $30 and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 7 1/8. ABX off 1 1/4, GG down 2 and NEM fell 1 3/4. Volume was good. My ABX May calls took a hit but not as much as expected, which is puzzling. We've decisively broken down through the 200 day moving average. This trade needs to be exited tomorrow. If we get a weak employment report that might provide a pop for the precious metal. That would be the time to bail out of this loser. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Todays market action wasn't expected by me. We are getting short term oversold on the stock indices but that may not mean anything if this is the start of something big. I certainly don't know. The transports were higher today and that means that there is a chance that today was a one day wonder. However the transports could have been reacting to the huge drop in oil today. Time will tell.

Weakness as expected with the Dow down 84 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1340 last week. Today we snapped back to that level. The next technical expectation would be a move back to the recent highs or above. That is what I would expect. If we break down from here that would change the situation and a new scenario would be expected. Stay tuned. Employment report out on Friday and that should be a catalyst one way or the other. GE fell 1/3 on average volume. GE is right at its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. Gold got pummeled again, down $25. The XAU lost 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX off 1/2, GG fell 3/8 and NEM was up 1/4. Volume was good here. My open order for the ABX May calls was filled this morning. Had I waited another hour, I could have gotten them cheaper. But you never know actually what you will do under market conditions until it happens. Fortunately the options are at the price I purchased them. This is supposed to be a short term trade and I hope I keep it that way. ABX is trying to hold at its 200 day moving average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still at a buy signal. I do feel that this trade has a chance to work. We'll see. The dollar didn't move much today and has been moving sideways. Still very oversold here. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. So another trade is on and I feel like this one at least has a chance. The entry could have been much better. I'll have to try and time the exit properly. I don't think if we get some upside in ABX that it is the beginning of a sustained move higher. A base would most likely have to form for a sustained move to happen. The stock indices should hold in here and move sideways to higher if my prognosis is correct. Tomorrow should be a holding pattern waiting for Friday. We'll see what happens.

The Dow bounced around today but ended the session flat. Volume was good today, however the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. The dip today was bought and that fits into my market view at the moment. However it is never a good thing when everyone thinks the same thing. I still feel we'll be seeing higher stock prices though. GE was up 16 cents on light volume. Moving sideways for now. Gold lost $16 and the XAU fell 5 1/3. Money is coming out of the precious metal. ABX down a point, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM dropped 1 1/3. Volume was pretty good. I did place an order for some ABX May calls. This will be a short term trade if the order is filled. Oversold on ABX and we are at the 200 day moving average. I'm leaving the order in overnight. There is always the chance that we will simply break the 200 day average and continue heading lower. That will be the sign that this trade isn't going to work. The US dollar was up a bit but not a lot. Very oversold there and a bounce can be expected. But that has been the case for several days now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices were dropping pretty good during the day but came back to pare their losses. Still overbought here but in up trends that condition can last a while. Gold has begun to drop and it may have to do with the end of the Fed policy of easy money. That would cause the US dollar to rise and would not be supportive for gold. I think Fridays employment report could be even more important than usual. We'll see on that. Silver is crashing on a daily basis at the moment from its parabolic rise. That won't be positive for gold either. However the Gold/XAU ratio signal just keeps getting stronger on the buy side. That's why I'm willing to step up and try the ABX trade here. We'll see what happens.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow today as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I expect a bit of weakness here to alleviate the short term overbought condition but I still think we are headed higher. Osama Bin Laden was killed over the weekend and that was the catalyst for the strong open. However we could not hold on to the gains. The employment report on Friday holds the key to this week I believe. However we have 3 more days to get there. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing doing there regarding a trade for now. Gold was flat on the day after opening much lower. But we sold off $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX fell 1 1/2, GG dropped 3 and NEM lost 1 1/3. It could be that everyone is heading towards the exits here for gold. However the Gold/XAU ratio is still flashing a buy signal and it is stronger than last week. The dollar was a touch lower today but remains very oversold. I am still considering the ABX May calls but will have to get the price that I want. I'm considering putting in an overnight order. We are now short term oversold on the gold shares. But that doesn't mean that they cannot go lower. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I believe that the Dow is due for a pause here but I've been wrong a lot lately. Any pullback can still be bought, in my opinion. I'm going to look at the ABX May calls for a short term trade. Not exactly sold on this though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. We'll see if this carries through for tomorrow.

Another day, another gain as the Dow gained 47 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. It was a good week and a good month. There is nothing to stop the market from going higher. I believe pullbacks, if we get any, will be bought. We should see some type of pause next week as we are very overbought short term. We'll see. GE lost 15 cents on light volume. Perhaps there will be a chance to try the May calls here. I'll check the charts over the weekend here. Gold continues its ascent, up $25 today. It is going parabolic in my view. The XAU gained 1 7/8. ABX up 1/3, GG up 3/4 and NEM actually lost a bit. That is the problem that I am having here with the gold shares. Gold itself is powering to record highs and the gold shares are lagging badly. Something has to give. However the Gold/XAU ratio is still at a buy signal and it is getting even stronger. This is another thing that I will have to take a closer look at this weekend. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Very oversold short and medium term for the US dollar. Any turnaround here will not be good for gold. But it hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. April was a very good month for the stock indices and for gold. There's still 3 weeks left in the May option cycle. Will the markets continue higher into expiration? Time will tell. There is nothing to stop the upward momentum at the moment. I'm going to go over things this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher we go as the Dow gained 72 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. GDP was a bit better than expected. Nothing has changed. The trend is up. GE was little changed on light volume. No trades there for now. Gold was up $14 and more in the aftermarket. It is starting to look like we are going to go parabolic there as well. The XAU lost 1 2/3. The Gold/XAU ratio is just about at another buy signal. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. I'm leaving in the May ABX call order. I did adjust the price down. Not sure if I will leave this open for the weekend. The dollar is deeply oversold and staying there for now. The dollar is due to bounce and that could be the optimum time for the gold share calls. It would have to be a very short term trade. There is also the possibility that the US dollar simply remains oversold. I am going with the Gold/XAU buy signal. We'll see if it holds up. Mentally I'm doing OK. Summation index moving higher and the stock indices continue moving up. The Dow transports are approaching all time highs. This bodes well for the overall market going forward. Look to buy calls would be my advice for now. Don't fight the advance. The market knows more than you or I do.

The Fed and Bernanke came and went. We broke above resistance yesterday and the trend is going to be upwards for the near future. The Dow gained 95 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Summation index going higher. All systems are go for higher prices. The Fed said nothing new. It didn't matter, the stock indices are in rally mode. We'll see how high this move takes us. GE gained 1/2 on good volume. The calls here should have been purchased Monday or Tuesday. It doesn't do any good to look in the rear view mirror. Gold rallied as well, up $13 on the futures and that much again in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 4. ABX and GG were up 2/3, while NEM rose 1 1/8. Volume was good. The gold shares were lower early in the day. We actually got a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. I did place an order for some May ABX calls but I was too late. I adjusted the order and left it in overnight. Yesterday I stated that I would not be looking to try the gold share calls at this time. Things have changed. Gold is going parabolic at this stage it seems to me. If I can get the price I want on these calls, I'm willing to take the risk. The US dollar got pounded today and that helped gold and the stock market. The dollar is in an area where previously we would have seen a short term rally. However we broke down instead. This is saying that the dollar market is even weaker than it looks. That should support the price of gold here. It is also fuel for the stock indices which have broken out of resistance. The trends are up and calls are the only game in town at this point in time. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I'm ready to try another trade here and we'll see what happens. It could be that we are at the end of these up moves as well but I really don't think so. The stock market is short term overbought. However any pullbacks can be purchased in my opinion. The daily chart on ABX actually shows the technicals more oversold due to the takeover bid sell off. So we'll see what happens. GDP tomorrow and the end of the month on Friday. Should be interesting.

We broke the resistance to the upside as the Dow gained 115 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We can expect higher prices going forward although there could be a retest of the breakout point. If this does occur, it will be a chance to purchase some May index calls. We'll see if that happens. Summation index moving higher. The S&P 500 is solidly through the 1335 to 1440 level. Fed announcement tomorrow. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. I'm still considering the May calls here. Not sure if that is the proper trade here. Gold lost $5 as it was actually down for a change. The XAU dropped 2 1/8. ABX led the way down again, off 1 2/3 on heavy volume. GG dropped 2/3 and NEM was flat. Volume was light in those issues. The US dollar continues weaker. I'm not sure trading the gold share calls is the way to go here. Still overbought on these issues with the exception of ABX. Maybe gold rallies tomorrow on an accommodating Fed. I'm not going to take any chances there though. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we got the expected breakout and I do believe higher prices are in the offing. Short term overbought though but that doesn't mean we can't stay that way. I think I will attempt the OEX May calls if we get a pullback. Let's see what the Fed does tomorrow and go from there.

It was kind of a not much going on type of day following a long weekend as the Dow lost 26 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are taking a pause here at the 1335-1340 level in the S&P 500. My feeling now is that we will break through to new recovery highs soon. But I could be wrong and often am. We've got the Fed meeting this week. That will probably be a catalyst for market movement. 1st quarter GDP and plenty of other economic data as well. So things could get interesting. End of the month as well. GE was flat as well today on average volume. Perhaps the earnings news has been digested by now. I would like to have the guts to try the May calls here. If the S&P does breakout, GE should follow higher. In theory of course. We'll see. Gold was up $5 on the futures today for yet another record high. The XAU dropped 5 2/3 though. Most of this was due to ABX, which fell 3 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. ABX is planning a takeover of another company and the street did not like it. Hence the risk in individual issues. However if you own the puts, things are looking good. GG fell 5/8 and NEM was off 1 3/8. Both on average volume. I think the gold rally is getting long in the tooth but it continues. Overbought and we are due for some type of pullback. Perhaps the Fed announcement on Wednesday will cause some downside. That's a guess, as usual. The dollar remains deeply oversold on a daily and weekly basis. That won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 4 weeks to go for the May option cycle. That should give me enough time to figure out some type of trade. I may try the OEX calls again if we get some backing and filling here. I'm going to lay off the gold calls for now because we are so overbought. GE is back on my radar screen and I would look for the May 20 calls there as the contract to trade. If we get a breakout to the upside on the S&P 500, that could be the next trade for me.

The Dow gained 52 points today to end the shortened week. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Volume was light. We are right at resistance of 1340 for the S&P 500. I believe that we will break through in the very near future. The summation index has turned back to the upside. GE lost 45 cents on heavy volume. The street did not like the earnings report. This could be a possible long trade now that the earnings are out of the way. Gold tacked on another $5 today to new record highs. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX and GG rose 3/4, while NEM added 3/8. NEM came out with earnings today but it seemed to be a non-event. ABX is now over $55 but the volume was nothing special. I don't think this is a valid breakout yet. We'll see about next week. The dollar continued lower today and closed the week negative. If it continues lower, gold should move higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We now have a 3 day weekend to ponder things. I'll go over the charts and try to come up with a game plan for the May option cycle. All signs are pointing up for the stock indices and commodities. I will have to try and find something to take advantage. But for now it's time for a break.

The stock indices exploded to the upside, with the Dow gaining 186 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. We are on our way to new recovery highs. Earnings will be the catalyst. It appears that the market got rid of whatever sellers were left on Monday. The summation index should start to turn around here. Look for calls on pullbacks. GE was up 13 cents ahead of tomorrows earnings. Volume was average. I'd expect GE to take off to the upside on its earnings. We'll see. Gold gained $4 today and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 2 1/3. ABX gained 5/8, while GG and NEM tacked on 1/4. Volume was light. Would have liked to have seen a bigger move to the upside in the gold shares today considering the US dollar got crushed. But I suppose money is being spread out into the stock market. The daily candlestick charts actually don't look too good for the gold shares after today. We'll have to see what transpires tomorrow. ABX is on the threshold of breaking the all important $55 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices have taken their cue so far this week from the US dollar. When the dollar rose on Monday, stocks tanked. Now that the dollar has reversed to the downside, the stock indices have taken off to the upside. The markets obviously know something that I don't. It's a holiday shortened week so tomorrow will be the end of the trading for the US markets. There is also an extra week on the May option cycle. Apple reported after the bell and beat estimates handily. It should mean another upside day tomorrow.

We moved higher today as the Dow gained 65 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Moving off of oversold levels here. Perhaps we are sold out for the time being. Summation index still heading lower though. The Dow for now has held above the 50 day moving average. There is a chance that this could prove to be the beginning of a move to new recovery highs above 1340 on the S&P 500. I don't know. We will have to see how the rest of the week unfolds. GE was up 30 cents on good volume. Earnings are due on Thursday. Moving off of an oversold condition here as well. Gold gained a couple bucks today and touched $1500 for the first time. The XAU rose 3 3/4. ABX and NEM gained 3/4, while GG added almost a buck. Volume was light. The dollar reversed yesterdays strong gain. Not sure exactly what to make of that. I would like to own some ABX calls as we near the breakout level of $55. Once we clear that area, it is up, up and away for that issue in my opinion. ABX is currently at 54 1/4. It is something that I am looking at. Mentally I'm doing OK. The stock indices are holding up rather well here after Mondays very weak open. I think that fact that we haven't completely unraveled says something. The technicals are oversold and perhaps this is the beginning of something to the upside. That's a guess as usual and lately my guesses have been expensive. We'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

A gap to the downside to start the shortened week as the Dow lost 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. We were down about 250 at the worst moment of the day. A possible downgrade of US debt was todays culprit for the decline. Summation index heading lower. We are very oversold here. The so-called bounces have been anemic. The S&P 500 is trying to hold the 1300 level. We'll see. GE was flat on the day after being down early. Volume was better than average. No trades here for now. Gold was up $7 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 points. The gold shares were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on better volume. The gold shares too, fell early and then made a comeback during the day. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back at a buy signal. This despite the dollar having a pretty good day. Why the dollar would rally on bad news concerning the US debt at first glance doesn't make any sense. However it could have been just short covering, as the worst news is now out. That's all a guess as usual. Gold is at all time highs. I might try the May gold share calls if the Gold/XAU signal does happen. But it's risky. Gold is overbought here but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way for a while. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to put last week behind me. I have a confidence void at the moment. Losing trades with poor execution will do that. I've got to move on though. I would look for the stock indices to at least stabilize for the rest of the week. If not, then we'll have a better idea of what is going on here.

We got a weak bounce today as the Dow gained 56 points on expiration Friday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. The OEX trade was a disaster. I had a chance to cut the loss at 50% and I canceled the order to give it some more time. Mistake. It ended up being a 95% loss and broke one of the risk parameter rules set in place at the beginning of the year. I did not have the discipline to execute the correct moves under pressure. This is an amateur mistake. There are no excuses, I just wasn't good enough. So that was 2 horrible short term trades within a week. I am no good at short term deals. I should not even attempt them. Getting back to the markets, I'm about to change my mind on new recovery highs. The summation index continues lower and we should have had a decent bounce by now. It hasn't happened. GE was higher early and closed little changed. Volume was average. No trades in the works there. Gold was up 14 bucks to a new all time high. However the XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar gained a bit today. Not sure why the gold shares couldn't follow gold today. It is something to keep an eye on. I would like to try the May gold share calls but after this week I'll probably be on the sidelines for a while. Mentally I'm discouraged. Both of my trades this week were losers from the start. Obviously that isn't good. The fact that I didn't take small losses when I should have just compounds the negatives. The money matters but not as much as the confidence factor. If you can't perform when necessary, you don't have a chance. So now I'll be gun shy for a while since I certainly don't have a handle on what the market is doing at the moment. Lousy trades just don't do anything for you at this point. It's April and although the year started out very positive for me, it seems like I am back to square one. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to get my head together. It won't be easy. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow had a one day reversal to the upside as we gapped lower on the open and came all the way back for a gain of 14 points. The advance/declines were positive, while the volume was average. My OEX calls got killed in the morning but made somewhat of a comeback during the day along with the overall market. They are in the red though with a day to go. I probably should have just sold them at the close and taken that loss today. But we are still oversold and the bounce is not happening. That could mean bigger trouble for the indices. Google reported poor earnings after the bell and that doesn't bode well for the open tomorrow. An oversold market that doesn't show some upside is dangerous. The summation index continues lower. GE was flat today on light volume. We are right at the $20 strike price. Gold had a good day on the weaker dollar. The precious metal gained $17. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all gained around 1 1/4 on OK volume. The move in the gold shares today is what I was looking for in the Monday ABX call trade. Timing is everything as always. I don't think that I'll chase the gold shares here. The weekly charts are just about overbought on the technicals. But we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I almost sold the OEX calls at the close today as well after I heard the bad news on Google. With only one day to go, the odds of this trade turning a profit are not good. But I didn't dump them and I'll probably feel the pain tomorrow. More inflation data out tomorrow and todays report wasn't good. Plus option expiration. We'll see how it goes.

We opened higher but could not sustain anything to the upside as the Dow gained only 7 points on the day. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. Summation index is heading lower. I did put in an order for some April OEX calls and it was filled. The options are right at where I purchased them. Tomorrows open will be the key as we are oversold and due for a bounce in my opinion. There are only 2 trading sessions left for the April option cycle, so obviously this will be a very short term trade. We'll see what happens. GE was basically flat today on light volume. Gold gained a couple of bucks while the XAU fell 2 points. ABX and GG were both off about 1/4. NEM dropped 7/8. Volume was light. The dollar gained a touch today. I still like the gold shares going forward here. Perhaps there will be another attempt at the calls in the May option cycle for me. The weekly candlestick charts will not look bullish though if prices stay where they are or decline further in the next 2 days. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I decided to take the chance on the OEX trade since there is a short term buy signal in place on one of my technical indicators. It may or may not pan out. I do feel good about being able to put the lousy ABX trade behind me and move on to the next perceived opportunity. Inflation data and initial claims are out tomorrow. That should be the early key to market direction. I'll take it from there.

It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 117 points on better volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I'm still a believer that we will see new recovery highs in the S&P 500. I think that any decline tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade before Fridays expiration. I would like to have the confidence to try the OEX calls tomorrow. That remains to be seen. The summation index has rolled over and is trending down. So caution is advised here also. GE lost 17 cents on average volume. We are right around the $20 area here. I am not going to try anything there. Gold lost $15 and the XAU fell 4 points. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX off 3/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM up 1/3. Volume was a little less than average. The dollar was a bit lower today and it didn't help gold. I sold the ABX calls for about an 85% loss. That was a horrible trade that should not have even been done. It was a loser from the start. There was no solid technical basis to even put it on. I think I was just anxious to do something before the April option cycle ended. It was stupid and I paid for it. Now there is a legitimate chance for an OEX bounce trade and I don't know if I can pull it off after this loser. I don't want to seem like I am doing the OEX trade to try and make back what I just lost on the ABX trade. Mentally I'm in a tough spot. I do believe that weakness can be bought tomorrow but I don't know if I can pull it off. I could be wrong as well. There are only 3 days left for the April option cycle. There is also a ton of data coming out in the next 3 days. Weakness tomorrow does give a short term buy signal on one of my technical indicators. So I will think about all this tonight and go from there. It would not help to compound the ABX loss with another right away. However a winning trade would be a step in the right direction.

We bounced around today and ended pretty much flat as the Dow gained 1 point on light volume. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. I think we are perhaps setting up for a trade to the long side at the middle to end of the week. I'll be looking at the OEX calls if I decide to give it a shot. Plenty of economic data out this week. So we'll see what happens. GE was flat on the day with very light volume. I would try the April 20 calls here this week if I thought GE could make a decent upside move. Not sure and there isn't much time left on the options. Gold was off $6 today and more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 6 1/4. ABX down 1 1/4, GG and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light. I did try the ABX April calls today. Of course now I wish that I didn't. The position is down almost 50% already. Can ABX make a comeback this week? Stranger things have happened but I really need to cut the loss here. It is the kind of trade that was risky, didn't work from the start and now needs to be let go. I would need to see some type of stunning reversal tomorrow. Won't happen. Not a lot of money at risk here but it will probably be a loser none the less. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm thinking about getting some OEX calls for later this week but the risk there would be high as well. However the market is getting oversold here. Plus it's expiration week which usually has a positive bias. I'll deal with the ABX trade and go from there. I probably need to be reminded that the short term trades are not my strong suit. I'll ponder things tonight to come up with the game plan for the rest of the week.

The Dow fell 29 points today on the brink of a US government shutdown over the budget. We were lower but came back in the final hour. Volume was light and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The budget fiasco is really much ado about nothing in my opinion. A budget will eventually be passed and this too will be forgotten. But it gives an excuse to sell stocks and the US dollar as well. Todays action could turn the summation index lower. That is something to keep an eye on. GE lost 16 cents on average volume. I'm going to have to pass on the April 20 calls there. There's only one week to go for the options. Perhaps I'll change my mind over the weekend. Gold had another good day, up $15. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX up 2/3, GG rose 1 1/4 but NEM fell 1/3. Volume was good. GG remains the leader here to the upside. We are very overbought here but I still might try the ABX calls next week. I did cancel the open order that I had for them today. ABX is on the verge of a breakout if it can get above $55. However the risk is very high since there is so little time left in the April options. The dollar got pounded again today and that was the reason for the rise in gold in my opinion. The US dollar is pretty oversold here as well. So there is plenty to think about over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. The major stock indices are moving sideways at resistance. The transports have rolled over here and that could be the harbinger of lower prices near term. However I do think that we will be breaking through the near term resistance to new recovery highs. I could be wrong and often am. One week to go on the April options so if a trade is attempted it will have to work in a hurry. I'm leaning towards the ABX calls for now. I'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding something meaningful for next week. For now it's time for a break.

Another large earthquake in Japan sent the Dow lower early but the market came back to just post a loss of 17 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. We've been moving sideways for a week. I expect that we'll break out to the upside sometime before expiration but that's a guess as usual. However the trend remains up until further notice. GE lost 20 cents on average volume. The April calls that I was looking at here got cheaper but I think that I will step aside from this trade. Of course that could change tomorrow. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU gained a point. ABX lost 3/8, GG up 1/3 and NEM gained 1 7/8. Volume was average. I lowered my entry price for the ABX April calls to take off a little more risk with only 6 days to go. I still expect ABX to try and break through the $55 level. However the timing is in question. None the less, I'm going to try and give this trade a go. The dollar closed little changed today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Time is running out for the April option cycle. Things get a bit more risky and dynamic. It is the nature of the options game. I'm still going to try and put on a trade here but nothing is set in stone.

Grinding higher as the Dow gained 32 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Summation index continues higher. I still expect upside into the expiration next week. Nothing has changed to derail that. The market is overbought, staying there and that is the tune for now. GE was up 1/4 on OK volume. I canceled the open order for the April GE calls. 7 days to go and the price I wanted for the options isn't going to happen. I also don't think that GE has the volatility at the moment for this trade now. I do still believe that GE will see a higher price near term. Gold gained another $6 today and a few more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves. Volume was good here. I'm leaving in the open order for the April ABX calls. There is volatility in the gold shares and plenty of interest at the moment. I'm not sure that I will hold this over the weekend though. We'll see what transpires between now and then. The dollar was weaker today and could be starting another leg down. Time will tell on that. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. We are right at resistance for the S&P 500. I do think that we will break through and set new recovery highs soon. Before expiration is my guess. There may be an OEX trade to take advantage of that, if we see some weakness first. That would be the ideal scenario.

Another lackluster session for the stock indices as the Dow lost 6 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are moving sideways for now but I believe that we will be heading back to the upside by the end of the week. Not a lot of economic data out this week. I am looking to purchase some calls before expiration. GE lost 20 cents on light volume. I have an open order in for some April 20 calls. It might get filled if GE sees some more weakness near term. We broke the daily downtrend line here a few days ago. The next technical expectation is a return towards that line before we head higher once again. We'll see if it pans out. Gold broke out to new highs today, up $20 and $5 more in the aftermarket. The XAU soared 9 1/3. ABX up 2 7/8, GG up 3 and NEM up 2 1/3. Volume increased on the breakout. This I think is a valid break to the upside and you can hop aboard for the ride. I also have an open order in for some April ABX calls. I moved to a higher strike price than I was looking at. This order may not be filled as it is entirely possible that we simply move straight up from here. However I do feel that this move is worth chasing. The gold shares moved up around 5% in just one day. That must be respected. We'll see what happens. The dollar fell just a touch today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So gold is on the move and I am not taking advantage of it once again. However the technicals showed nothing to anticipate this breakout so I can't feel too bad about missing it. There is always a chance that I'll still be able to salvage something if the ABX order gets filled. Meanwhile the stock indices are taking a breather here from going straight up. I do feel that higher prices are in the near future, before the April expiration next week. I'll try to take advantage of that with GE. We'll see what happens.

A quiet start to the week as the Dow gained 23 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The indices opened higher and meandered throughout the day. Nothing has changed, the trend is up. GE gained 19 cents on the day but was higher early. Volume was light. I would still like to try the April 20 calls here if they drop in price in the next few days. We'll see. Gold gained $4 today and the XAU was up a point. ABX, GG and NEM were flat or had fractional gains. Volume light as usual here. The dollar didn't do much and was marginally higher on the day. The gold shares are overbought and if we get some pullback I'll try the May calls. That is the game plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing has changed with regards to my trading ideas. GE would be the first trade followed by something with ABX or GG. GE would be very short term, with only 9 days left in the April option cycle. So I am remaining patient for now. I am not going to try and press anything here. We'll see if we get any decent movement in the markets tomorrow.

The employment report came and went. The Dow continues higher, up another 57 points. We were up almost 100 during the trading session. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and volume was average. Overbought, staying that way and it's back to the same old broken record. The indices are going higher. Any type of pullback can be bought. You cannot argue with the market. GE was up about 1/3 and broke through the daily downtrend line. I'll be looking for some April calls here if we get some decline. Might not happen. I have some interest in the April 20 calls if I get a chance. We'll see. Gold lost around $10 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. The gold shares had fractional losses on the day on the usual light volume. Gold itself had a gap down at the open and steadily came back all day. It seemed to follow the US dollar, which was higher early and closed the day unchanged. With the decent jobs report it would have made more sense for some type of dollar rally today. Didn't happen. I'd still like to try some gold share calls for May however we are still overbought there. Again, if we get some type of pullback here as well, I will attempt to put on a trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Another good week for the stock indices as the Japan debacle seems to fade into the distance. Money is finding a home in stocks. The trend is up and there is no need to fight it. 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle. I'll hopefully be able to take advantage of something on the long side. For now though it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Profit taking at the end of the month as the Dow lost 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We're still overbought here but that hasn't led to any meaningful declines lately. The summation index continues higher. Pullbacks can be bought in my opinion. The employment report tomorrow should be the key for the next move one way or the other. GE was flat on light volume. We've approached the 50 day moving average and a daily downtrend line. If we can get through those on decent volume GE should move higher. I'm still considering the April 20 calls there. Gold had a good day, up $15 on the futures. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had gains of 1/3 or so on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker today. The gold shares are short term overbought. I'd like to get the May calls if we get a pullback. However there is a chance that gold itself will break out to the upside and new highs here. If that's the case I may just try to jump on board. I'll have to see some volume on the breakout though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The indices are back in overbought mode again and it feels like the market environment before the Japan quake. We'll have to see the reaction to the numbers tomorrow and go from there.

Still moving higher as the Dow gained 71 points on light volume. Light volume seems to be the new normal here for the indices. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Summation index moving higher. Very overbought and staying there. End of the month tomorrow, with the employment report on Friday. The market is headed upwards until further notice. GE gained 1/4 on better than lately volume. I might try the GE calls for April if we get some type of weakness near term. Most likely that is just wishful thinking. However if the GE April 20 calls get cheap I'll probably take a shot there. Not set in stone. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX up 7/8, GG up 7/8 and NEM gained 2/3. Volume is still light here. I think the direction of the US dollar near term will determine the direction of gold. We are right at the daily downtrend line for the dollar and have stalled. So we'll see what happens. The employment report could provide direction here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A little over 2 weeks left in the April option cycle. Not sure I'll be able to put a trade on but we'll see.

The Dow gained 81 points today. So much for the expected decline. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Volume was nothing special. The market is overbought and staying there. We are back in the mode we were in before the Japan earthquake. The market just plows higher. The only caveat that I can see is the volume. It has been anemic. I do not trust light volume rallies. But you cannot argue with price. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. It has been a laggard here. I have no trades in mind for GE. Gold lost a couple of bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume again. So the volume question comes up here as well. I'm still considering the ABX calls but I'd like to go to the May option cycle. We'll see. The technicals are giving no clear signal. The dollar didn't move much today. So I'll try and be patient here for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I expected weakness early this week and the market just continues to get more overbought. There's no fighting it. At least I haven't been trying the OEX puts here. The market will go where it wants regardless of my opinion. I'll have to remain on the sidelines until I get a better handle on things.

Opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal as the Dow lost 22 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not a lot to report with regards to todays market movement. It was a tight range throughout the day. I do expect weakness here early in the week to relieve the overbought condition. After that, who knows? End of the month on Thursday and the employment report the following day. GE was flat on little volume as well. Nothing new to report here. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU dropped 3 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume. I'm still looking to do a trade here. I'd prefer to go out to the May option cycle but that is not set in stone. I think that the gold shares will follow the indices lower early this week and that could be the opportunity to purchase some calls. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The dollar is at a key point on the daily candlestick charts, right up against a downtrend line that has been in effect since the beginning of the year. If the line holds it would be bullish for gold. If not, just the opposite. It is something to keep an eye on near term. So I'll be looking for weakness the next couple of days in the indices and go from there.

Still moving higher as the Dow gained 50 points to close out the week. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. A very positive week for the stock indices and the summation index has turned back to the upside. We are short term overbought and remain there. I think that we will see some weakness in the beginning of next week and that may be the opportunity to get long. We'll see. GE was flat on light volume. GE hasn't moved as much as the indexes in percentage terms this week and is a relative under performer. No trades there for now. Gold fell $8 today but the XAU only dropped 1 1/8. The gold shares were mixed with fractional moves on light volume. The dollar had a good day for a change. I canceled the open order for the ABX April calls. I'll perhaps try again next week. The dollar looks like it could be moving up from an extended oversold condition. That could prove problematic for gold. So I will have to try and figure things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 weeks to go in the April option cycle. Next week could be the ideal time to put on a trade for April. I'll be checking the charts in the next 2 days to try and find something worthwhile. Friday afternoon now and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 84 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index should be turning around here. We're overbought and staying there as it looks like the event driven decline has ended. It has been a rapid turnaround and I would expect some weakness but there hasn't been any. You can't argue with price. Any pullbacks can be bought, in my opinion. GE gained 1/4 on light volume. GE hasn't regained as much ground as the overall market here. I might try the calls here again but not at this time. Gold was off a few bucks after setting all time highs early in the day. The XAU declined 1 2/3. ABX off 3/8, GG off 7/8 and NEM down 1/3. Volume picked up a bit. The daily charts look like one day reversals to the downside for the gold shares. I'm keeping in the open order for the ABX April calls. I still believe that this trade will work in the next 3 weeks. I could be wrong. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. On day left in the week for trading. The stock indices are overbought but show no signs of slowing down. I have no OEX trades in mind here unless we get to an oversold position. So we'll see. I'm still a fan of the gold shares and will place the ABX trade if possible.

We gained back what we lost yesterday as the Dow rose 67 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're overbought now and right at resistance on the S&P 500. Some type of pause or pull back is in order. Unless we just take off to the upside here but I do not anticipate that happening. I've been wrong before though. So we will have to wait and see how the rest of this week plays out. GE was flat on the day after being weak early. Volume was light. How GE acts here could be a key as well. No trades in mind for GE at the moment. Gold was up another $10 today and is right back to all time highs. The XAU soared 7 3/4 points. ABX up 1 3/4, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 1 2/3. Volume picked up on the ascent. It looks like I have missed yet another move in the gold shares. I did place an open order for some ABX April calls in case we get a pull back near term. The dollar was stronger today yet gold rallied anyway. Seasonally March is a weak month for gold but that hasn't panned out this year. And so it goes. Mentally I'm a bit tired. We had a signal on the gold/XAU ratio a few days ago and I did not place a trade. That was a mistake. We were also oversold on the gold shares at the same time. It was a great set up and I didn't do anything. Not sure why but perhaps I was still occupied with the losing GE trade. There are no excuses. I will simply have to do better in the future. There is a reason that this is the toughest game in the world. However the battle always lies within oneself. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The 3 day rally paused today as the Dow lost 18 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Where we go from here is important. I'd like to see some type of decline in the next couple of days to establish a long position. However if we simply continue higher from here, it might mean that the market is stronger than anticipated. We'll see. GE dropped 1/4 on light volume. I'm looking for sideways price action here. Gold was flat today. The XAU gained 1 1/8. ABX and GG were flat on light volume. NEM gained 1 1/2 on better volume. The dollar was flat as well. If we see some weakness in the gold shares, I'm going to be a buyer of some calls. This week or next. The technicals here are mixed so if we see some decline the gold shares will return to oversold. Wishful thinking possibly but that is the game plan for now. Subject to change of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Biding my time here for now. Sometimes being patient is the most difficult thing to do but it is important. My feeling is that the events that drove the market south have dissipated for now. That could allow for a rally in the April option cycle. That's my best guess at the moment.

The bounce continues as the Dow gained 178 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. Is it more than just a bounce? That is the question. Todays action could turn the summation index back up. However we are approaching short term overbought here. I would like to see some pull back near term in order to establish some calls if that is the course of action that I choose. Haven't decided yet. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. No trades there for now. Gold gained $10 as the political unrest in Libya heated up over the weekend. The XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX and GG up 7/8, while NEM gained 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares a moving off of an oversold condition. If we get some weakness here near term I will consider purchasing some April gold share calls. That is the game plan as of today. The dollar was weaker once again today and the trend there is decidedly down even though we are oversold. That should, in theory, help support the price of gold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market has had quite a snap back rally from its oversold condition during the middle of last week. I would not expect to just go straight up from here but you never know. Volatility has slacked off for now. On to Tuesday.

A positive option expiration Friday as the Dow closed higher by 84 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and volume was heavy. We were higher during the day as the market opened very strong but then we drifted lower throughout the day. I think we will move sideways from here to back and fill. Or perhaps the downtrend will start to gain momentum again. It's all a guess at this point. We're still oversold and the summation index continues moving lower. But the earthquake/tsunami event is over. Once the nuclear power plant problem is contained perhaps the market won't be driven by events for a while. We'll see. GE opened higher and sold off for the rest of the day to end up basically unchanged. Volume was average there. I don't plan on any trades in GE for now. Of course, that could change. Gold had a good day today, up $15. The XAU gained 2 1/4. ABX and GG each rose around a buck, while NEM was flat. Volume picked up a bit today. The dollar took another hit today and that supported the price of gold. I would have liked to have seen a better move in the gold shares but it didn't happen. I'm still interested in the April or May gold share calls. Maybe next week if we get some weakness on light volume. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. A losing GE trade this week but the damage was minimal. I'm looking for the next trade. We had a huge spike in volatility this week. I don't think that will continue but I could be wrong. A lot of indicators are pointing more towards a bottom in prices for the indices here. So as usual it's a mixed picture as we move into the April option cycle. I'll check things over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got the expected oversold bounce today as the Dow gained 161 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I would not expect a sustained uptrend to just appear starting today. We need to have at least some sideways movement for a while. Plus there is no guarantee that the recent decline is over. The summation index is still heading down. So we will have to wait until things sort themselves out before having a chance at guessing the markets direction from here. GE gained 1/4 on good volume. GE had a gain of double that early. I dumped the GE April calls for a 40% loss. I do not think GE will move above the strike price of 21 in the next 4 weeks. I could have gotten a slightly better price during the session but just getting out of a losing trade was the correct action in my opinion. The GE trade was a poor decision on my part and I payed for it. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I would like to try the gold share calls for April or May. That should be my next trade. I would like to see a base building period here before purchase. We'll see. The dollar had a very weak day. Golds reaction was somewhat muted. I will be keeping an eye on things here. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Trying not to think too much about getting a better price for the April GE calls. It shouldn't matter much because the money involved was minimal. However you want to do your best regardless of the money. I suppose my best today wasn't as good as it could have been. But as usual it's always easy looking back. I'll put that poor trade behind me and go from here. We'll see if the recent volatility continues going forward. The VIX index is at its highest reading since last May. If we get a reversal there I'll be looking to go long somewhere. Expiration Friday tomorrow.

We are are moving in what could be called a waterfall effect as the Dow dropped 242 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. Summation index heading lower with no end in sight as of yet. We are oversold as I said yesterday. There will be a bounce. The timing of which is the question. Perhaps we will just continue lower into the expiration. It's all just a guess in an event driven market that we find ourselves in. GE lost 2/3 on very heavy volume. This trade was a loser from the start. It happens. I'm not sure that even waiting for a bounce will help much here. It's a cut the loss mode for this trade now. Not a lot of money involved thankfully and it will be the first loser of the year. I probably should have just dumped it today. The time taken to monitor this trade is keeping me away from something else potentially profitable. Because there are opportunities out there now, make no mistake about that. Gold was up a few bucks today and the XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX down 7/8, GG off 2/3 and NEM fell 1 3/4. Volume here was good again. We are at a buy signal in the gold/XAU ratio. But we are still in the month of March. I do want to try some gold share calls but in this kind of market it's tough to call a bottom. Oversold on the gold shares here as well. I'd like to see some base building first. The dollar was up a bit today. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. The market is falling apart here and I own some GE calls. Obviously this isn't the right strategy. Mistakes will be made and this is one of them. I really need to get out of this trade and not compound the loss. GE is probably not going to come back in the next 4 weeks to make this trade profitable. I should be out tomorrow. We'll see.

Another downer today as the Dow lost 138 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. We were down twice as much early but the Dow managed to come back again. Oversold here and I would expect a bounce. However we are in such an event driven marketplace at the moment that anything goes. We had a Fed meeting and announcement today and it took a back seat to the Japan saga. I do like how the US market has held up here though. GE lost 1/3 on very heavy volume. It too made a significant comeback and was down a full point more than where it closed. My GE April calls are in the red. I'm thinking of just dumping them if we get the anticipated bounce in the next couple of days. This is a precarious trade at this point. I do not think that holding on into April is the proper course of action. We'll see. Gold got hammered, off $32. The XAU only fell 2 1/4 as the gold shares came back as well. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/8 and NEM down only 1/4. Volume was a bit higher than average. The dollar was higher early but sold off to close about unchanged. Perhaps the Fed had an influence there. That's a guess. I still want to try the April gold share calls but would like to see a base build in here first. You don't always get what you want. However, the gold shares held up much better than the metal itself and that could be a positive going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Volatility has picked up here and that makes for shorter holding periods in general for the option trades. There are opportunities. The summation index remains to the downside and that must be taken into account. It's only Tuesday but the week seems like it has lasted a long time already. We'll see if the Nikkei keeps dropping overnight and go from there.

An interesting Monday here as the Dow lost 51 points on average volume. We were down almost 150 during the day. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Overseas markets tanked but the Dow held up rather well. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Summation index still heading lower. GE fell almost 1/2 on heavy volume. I did put in an order for the April calls overnight and it was filled. I'm not sure this is a trade I want to be in at this point. However GE made a good comeback during the day as well. The calls recovered to break even. I'll have to ponder the trade this evening. Gold gained $3 today and the XAU lost 3/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I also left in an open order for some April ABX calls overnight. It wasn't filled and I canceled it. I am still interested in this trade for later this month. The dollar was weaker today. Mentally I'm doing OK. Expiration week is upon us. There is usually a positive bias. However with global events as they are lately, anything goes. More oversold than overbought here on the stock indices. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back today as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Hard to say where we go from here. Technicals remain oversold. I will have to ponder things over the weekend. GE gained 1/4 on average volume. I'm still considering the April calls there. Gold was up around $10 today and the XAU gained almost 4 points. The gold/XAU signal looks valid but I'm wary. It is the month of March. ABX, GG and NEM all had gains of 1/3 to 5/8 on light volume. The weekly charts there don't look good after the recent decline in prices. I'm still considering the April calls though. The dollar fell pretty good today. I'll need to check things here this weekend as well. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good for a change. Expiration week is upon us and the risk is high. I'll really need to see something solid to attempt a trade. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a downer as we broke and closed below 12000 on the Dow. At the end of the day it was a 228 point loss on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. Topics of discussion were a weakening economy in China and civil unrest in Saudi Arabia. The summation index has been moving sideways but today could be the catalyst that actually turns things down. We'll see. The uptrend line from the end of last August on the S&p 500 has been broken. That doesn't mean that we'll go straight down here but it does bear significance. Tomorrow should be interesting. GE lost 1/2 on good volume. I did put in an order for some April calls there today but it wasn't filled. I canceled the order before the close to reassess the situation. Oversold there and approaching the 50 day moving average. I will check things tonight. Gold lost $17 today as the dollar was stronger. Could the flight to safety trade be making a comeback? Time will tell. The XAU fell almost 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM all dropped more than a point on increased volume. The gold/XAU ratio is right at the buy signal. Perhaps just a short term trade here would be worthwhile, I'm not sure. March is historically the worst month for gold and the weekly charts for the gold shares are looking bearish. We are oversold on the gold shares short term though. I've been looking at the April options here but I will have to rethink things this evening. Mentally I'm doing the best I can with the outside influences and the increased volatility. I can say that things are getting better for me with each passing day. I do feel a sense of opportunity here but it won't be easy to figure out how to capitalize on it. 6 days to go for the March option cycle. We'll see what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

I've made it back to the home base but there is plenty of work to do. The markets volatility has picked up. We've been moving sideways for 3 weeks after hitting recovery highs. The longer term uptrend line is still in place for now. Gold went to new highs but has been stalled there. The gold/XAU ration is almost at a buy signal. 7 days left in the March option cycle. I may try something but the prudent course of action would be to ease my way back into things. We'll see about that. GE has followed the overall markets pattern. I should be back with the regular posts tomorrow.

It is the middle of the market day on Thursday and the stock indices are moving higher. We are up over 150 points. I am still not back at my desk but will return at some point next week. Volatility has picked up here but the major uptrend lines in the indices haven't been broken. Gold is trying to break out here but the gold share indices are not following suit. Gold is down today. The 77 level in the US dollar has been slightly violated. Tomorrows employment report could be the key there. Or not. The markets go where they want. GE is trying to hold up here as it did go down and touch the $20 level. My thoughts are scattered even more than usual as I deal with things outside of the markets realm.

Just a quick update from last week. The stock indices sold off but it doesn't look like there was any major damage. GE held its uptrend line that has been in place for weeks. Gold is at a breakout point to the upside at resistance, however the resistance could hold. NEM sold off sharply last week but GG continued higher. The US dollar is back to around the important number of 77. If it breaks down, gold should move through the resistance. We'll see.

The stock indices finally took a hit today as the Dow lost 178 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 6 to 1 negative. It was the biggest one day loss in quite a while. Now I ask you, what was different today than from last Friday? The Middle East uprisings have been going on for weeks. We've been overbought for weeks. Then why wait for today to have a sell off? Oh, Friday was the expiration of the February options. Gotta make those calls good for everybody that held them. So now we are into the March option cycle. Interesting? Do yourself a favor and don't ever forget the kind of game that you're playing here. GE fell around 60 cents on good volume. Almost back to the uptrend line from the end of November. I have to sit it out here though. Gold on the futures was off $6 after being up $20 yesterday. The XAU fell 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. I'd look to the April option cycle there for the calls. But that's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm spent as I'm dealing with issues far away from the markets. Can't say when the next post will be.

Rally is all this market knows as the Dow gained 73 points on expiration Friday. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow. It's been a great run since the lows of last September with the S&P 500 up about 30%. I could continue on about how overbought we are but I've just about beaten that to death. You just have to find ways to get long and stay with it. Until something changes, that is the game plan. GE lost a touch on light volume again. Nothing doing there. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU dropped an 1/8. ABX was up 3/4, GG up 1/3 while NEM fell 1/2. Volume picked up a bit here today. The dollar was weaker by about 1/3. 77 is the key level to watch in the US dollar. If we fall through there with volume than the dollar will have broken a key yearly uptrend line. That would propel gold to new highs in my opinion. There's no doubt that the gold shares are overbought here. But as we've seen with the stock indices, things can remain overbought for quite some time. Another factor for gold here is that the month of March is a seasonal weak period for the precious metal. I may look to get some April gold share calls if we see some weakness in the next few weeks. But that may not happen. Mentally I'm doing OK. Actually my mind hasn't been as focused as it needs to be to be successful trading. That is why I have shied away from making any trades recently. I have a family emergency that I must attend to next week and thereafter. I will not be watching the market every day like I normally do. I will also be without Internet access at times as I travel away from my trading base. The daily blog posts will not be as detailed and there will be days where there are no posts at all. The game is hard enough when you can give it the proper attention. It can become virtually impossible if you can't. Thankfully this is something that I've already learned. If you cannot devote the time and effort needed to be successful in the game it is better to stay on the sidelines. That goes double when you are dealing with extreme emotional issues involving loved ones. These situations do not happen often but they do occur. And it works both ways. You can be in such euphoria that it will affect your trading outlook and just as well be depressed with the same trading consequences. Your mental outlook needs to be on an even keel. Your emotions need to be in check. Your trading results depend on your ability to think in a clear rational manner. That probably won't be possible for me in the near term. I'll write the blog when I get a chance but I can't really say how often that will be. One thing for sure is that the markets certainly don't care about me or my situation. It helps to actually know that. The game will always be available when you're ready to give it the needed attention. But for now it's a Friday afternoon before an extended holiday weekend. Time for a break.

Onward and upward as the Dow gained another 30 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The song remains the same. Overbought, staying there and no changes in sight. It is a market on a tear and has been for quite some time. The technicals don't work in an environment like this. Enjoy the ride if you're long. GE was up a dime on light volume. Nothing doing there. Gold gained another $10 today and the XAU rose 1 1/8. The dollar was lower again today. ABX and NEM each gained about a buck, while GG tacked on 3/8. Volume was nothing special here. The earnings for ABX were excellent and there was a trade that I'm sorry that I missed. But what can you do? I've read that missed money is better than lost money but it doesn't make me feel any better. I'll look to try the gold shares again when they get oversold. If that even happens. We could just power higher like the stock indices have been doing. GG and NEM report their earnings in a week. However we will be moving into the March option cycle and premiums will be pricey. Mentally I'm doing OK. The rally continues but the volume has been pretty mediocre lately. That is about the only fly in the ointment that I can see. There certainly hasn't been any sustained selling anywhere. You cannot argue with price. Expiration Friday is upon us and then a long holiday weekend. I don't expect any surprises tomorrow.

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 61 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Most of the major indices are setting new highs. There are no negative divergences. The news, economic or otherwise, doesn't seem to matter. Money is and has been moving into stocks. Until something occurs to derail this freight train, the trend is up. There is no fighting it. GE was flat today on light volume. The uptrend line comes in at around 20 1/2. We're about at 21 1/2 now. So if we somehow drop a point, the March calls might become the next trade. Gold was up a buck today and the XAU rose 1 1/2. ABX up 1/2, GG up 1/3 and NEM lost a touch. Volume was light. I did consider buying some ABX calls today ahead of the earnings announcement tomorrow but didn't. There was plenty of volume in the options though. Tomorrow will be interesting there. The dollar was lower today but the metal itself didn't rally. There were also more reports of instability in the Middle East. Gold and the gold shares are overbought but as we have seen lately with the stock indices it doesn't seem to matter. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The market continues its relentless climb. ABX earnings tomorrow.

Volume remained light as the Dow lost 41 points. Advance/declines were negative. The Dow actually down 2 days in a row? Who would of believed it? That's the kind of market we are in. I'm not saying that we are at the top but the bullishness is pretty high. We're still overbought but trying the OEX puts here is not advised. I'm staying on the sidelines. GE was flat today on light volume. March calls? Not exactly sure at this point. If we make it back to the uptrend line I may consider it. Gold was up about $10 today and the XAU gained 1 2/3. ABX and GG rose 2/3 and NEM advanced 7/8. Volume light here as well. The dollar didn't do much today. It looks like the ABX February calls would have worked if I could have found an entry point when I was trying to purchase them. I simply failed to make the necessary adjustments. As always it's easy to look back. With the earnings out before the bell on Thursday, do I dare buy some calls tomorrow? No. That is not my typical style of trading but there easily could be some more room to run on the upside. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The risk of putting on a trade here with 3 days to go until expiration and no clear signals is untenable. I will simply have to wait things out and move on to the March option cycle. Not the preferred method of attack but probably the most prudent at this time.

The Dow started the week with a slight loss of 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. That usually implies higher prices near term. Combine that with expiration weeks usual positive bias and I think we'll see more gains in the short run. The only trade that I have in mind here would be some OEX puts if we get some more run up tomorrow and Wednesday. We are both short and medium term very overbought. If we hold up for a couple more days, perhaps that is the trade. GE gained 17 cents on light volume. Nothing doing there for now. Gold rose $5 and the XAU gained 4 3/8. GG and NEM tacked on 1/3, while ABX rose a buck. It looks like it's too late for the ABX calls this week. Earnings on Thursday and we've already begun to rise. We'll see. The risk isn't worth it in my opinion but that could change tomorrow. The dollar rose a bit today but closed off its highs. I think maybe the prudent thing to do here is remain on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK. 4 days left in expiration week and unless I try the OEX puts later this week I'm going to have to sit this cycle out. There are always other trades out there. The indices are so blown out to the upside that the technicals just aren't effective. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

There seems to be no stopping this rally as the Dow continued higher today by 44 points. Advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The situation in Egypt seems to have stabilized and that was todays excuse to move up. We are still very overbought. But even intra-day declines are bought up as money continues to flow into the indices. Enjoy the ride. GE was up a nickel on light volume. I'm still waiting to trade the March calls there. A pullback to the $20 area would set it up for me. Gold lost a couple bucks today and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I canceled the open order for the ABX February calls. No need to have anything open over the weekend. I will have to reconsider this trade over the weekend. The dollar was up again today and it looks like the 77 level has held there. That would not necessarily be bullish for gold. We do have the earnings for ABX on Thursday next week. A position ahead of that announcement would be the only attempt at this point. The technicals are mixed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 5 days to go in the February option cycle. Any trade would be quick and risky. That is not my strength but that doesn't mean that I won't try something. The indices are so blown out to the upside that the usual technical sell signals just haven't worked. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with some sort of game plan for next week. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow closed lower for a change but it was only off by 10 points. The broader market was higher. Advance/declines were even and the volume picked up a bit. The indices are very overbought and have been. All declines are bought and that hasn't changed. Every time I expect a decline it either is short lived or doesn't happen. So on it goes. GE didn't do much today on light volume. I'll try the March calls if we fall back to the uptrend line that began in December. Gold lost $3 and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and GG each lost 1/3 and NEM fell 7/8. Volume was light. The gold shares were lower earlier. I still have the open order for the February ABX calls in but it doesn't look like it will get filled. Perhaps I'll put in a different order before the earnings next week. I'm not exactly sold on this trade anymore but would like to try something. So we'll see. The dollar was higher today and gold itself did not self off and stay there. Perhaps because of the problems in Egypt. That's all just a guess on my part. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 6 days in the February option cycle. A very overbought market and staying that way. The gold shares have bounced and I'm waiting for the next move there. It may be that there won't be a viable trade for this monthly option cycle. So it goes. We can always simply wait and move out to March. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

We traded lower for most of the day but the Dow rallied in the final hour to finish with a gain of 6 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We're still overbought so I do believe some type of decline is imminent. If only because we've been short term overbought for a few days. This market continues to just simply move higher and that can't last forever. GE was flat on average volume. No trades there for now. Gold was flat today but the XAU lost 3 1/2. ABX and NEM had fractional losses on light volume, while GG gained 1/8 on good volume. GG had some positive news yesterday, which helped explain its good gain and heavy volume in the previous day. The dollar was weaker today. I again placed an order for the February ABX calls. I am not sure that I will do this trade because the technicals are not exactly where I want them. However, I do believe that it could work via the earnings announcement next Thursday. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today, did not sleep enough. Nothing seems to derail this rally. All declines are being bought. The indices continue to grind higher, with todays downward price movement being an exception. But even today we closed well off the lows. So you can't fight it. I'll try the OEX February calls for next week if I get the chance.

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow tacked on another 71 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Overbought and staying there but that has been the case since this rally began. We've had some slight pauses along the way but that's about it. The trend remains up until further notice. GE gained 3/8 on average volume. It too has climbed and remained overbought for weeks on end. If we pull back to the daily up trend line then I may try the March calls. Otherwise it will have to be the sidelines there for now. Gold had a good day, up $15. The XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX rose 7/8, GG up 1 3/4 and NEM was higher by 1 1/8. Volume was light here but you cannot deny the price action. We're short term overbought now. I still might try the February ABX calls if we see some down to sideways action. However I'm not exactly sure it's the right way to go. Obviously yesterday was the time to try GG but it is always easy to look back and be correct. The dollar was weaker during the day but made a comeback. I'll need to keep an eye on it since we are near a critical point there. That could be the key as to what happens to the gold market here. The weekly gold share charts look bullish at the moment. That must be kept in mind as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only 8 days to go for the February options. So the risk increases with each passing day. But like I've said before, if a decent signal comes up, I'll give something a try.

It was a positive Monday as the Dow gained 69 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Still moving higher but we do have a negative divergence on the RSI indicator. That could change if we have a strong up day tomorrow. However we are short term overbought and due for some pull back. We'll see. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. I'd still like the March calls if the opportunity presents itself. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar was flat. It's getting late to try the February gold share calls but I still might give them a shot. The risk increases with each passing day though. I may have to go out to the March series. Mentally I'm a bit tired. I'd like to see the indices head lower here for a few days to give me a chance at the February OEX calls for next week. This would be a short term trade with a life of a few days. Not exactly what I normally do but if there's a decent signal I'm willing to give it a try. I would like to attempt some type of trade before the February options are gone. So we'll see what happens.

The employment numbers came out and the market trudges on. The Dow gained 30 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were negative. The indices tried to sell off but the uptrend remains intact. Don't fight the trend. We are short term overbought again though. GE lost 20 cents on light volume. Nothing to do but wait there. I'm still interested in the March calls there. Gold lost $4 today and the XAU was down 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter volume. Not exactly sure which way to go here now. Getting overbought short term so the ABX calls will have to wait. The dollar showed a bit more strength today. We are at a key trend line for the US dollar longer term. We have a 3 year line of support that comes in at around the 77 level. If it holds the dollar will move higher. If not then a weaker dollar could and should be supportive of gold prices. The jury is still out on this one. But it is something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. Plenty to ponder over the weekend with 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle. I'll be checking the charts and trying to come up with some type of game plan. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We were lower to flat for most of the day but rallied in the last hour to finished higher by 20 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. Bernanke flapped his gums and the market ignored it. Awaiting tomorrows employment data. GE was flat today on light volume. It too was lower for most of the day. Perhaps I'll get a chance at the March calls eventually. Gold was the story of the day, up $20. The dollar had a strong rally as well. We are still seeing a disconnect here. I'm not sure what to make of it. The XAU was up 4 3/4. ABX rose 1 1/8, GG up a buck and NEM led the way higher by 1 2/3. Volume was average. It looks like the window of opportunity has passed for the February ABX calls. We aren't completely overbought yet, however we have moved pretty good from the recent lows. The options are pricey. There is a chance we could pull back next week but the risk to enter the trade would be pretty high. Gold took off during the day today and I can't say it was because of Bernanke or Egypt. So we will have to see where we go from here. I may switch to the GG calls, the option premiums there are more reasonable at this time. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not happy about not owning some gold share calls here if this really is a sustained move to the upside in the precious metal. But that remains to be seen and you've got to move on. We'll see what kind of reaction we get to the employment report.

Not much happened in the stock market today as the Dow ended the day with a gain of a point on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. Waiting on the employment numbers for the markets next short term direction. Today was a pause to digest yesterdays gain in my opinion. GE lost 9 cents on light volume. It doesn't look like I'll be able to get the March calls at this rate unless we see some type of pullback. Hasn't happened yet. Gold lost $8 today but showed gains in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 2 1/4. ABX down 3/4, GG off 1/3 and NEM dropped 7/8. Volume was light on the decline. The dollar gained a touch today. I still would like to try the February ABX calls if the opportunity presents itself. I'll need to see some more decline though. Lighter volume on the decline could be a positive sign unless we are about to enter a sideways range. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. Two weeks and two days for the February option cycle. I'd like to try something but I am not about to push things. Bernanke speaks tomorrow and we'll see where we go from there.

Continuing higher with a vengeance as the Dow gained 148 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive. Can we agree that the trend is up until further notice? Yes. It doesn't look like anything is in the way. Whatever the news, the market goes up. So stick with it. GE gained 2/3 on average volume. It doesn't look like I'll get a chance for the March calls there. This issue has had a great move since the end of November. Gold was up $5 and the XAU gained 6 1/3. ABX up 3/4, GG rose a buck and NEM led the way up 1 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares have finally outperformed the metal itself. Perhaps the trend is going to change back to the upside here. The US dollar took another hit and was much lower. The economic data has been stronger, we have unrest in Egypt and rates in the US have moved higher. Yet the dollar continues to lose ground. The flight to safety trade is being unwound but it seems the fall in the dollar reflects more than that. Perhaps the economic recovery isn't as strong as being projected. Or maybe countries are diversifying out of the US dollar as the reserve currency. I can only guess. I canceled the open order for the February ABX calls. I'm hoping to try this trade again before expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We're not overbought on the indices anymore, so there's room to move higher. Fridays action relieved the near term overbought condition. We'll see what tomorrow brings.