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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

The Dow bounced around today but ended the session flat. Volume was good today, however the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. The dip today was bought and that fits into my market view at the moment. However it is never a good thing when everyone thinks the same thing. I still feel we'll be seeing higher stock prices though. GE was up 16 cents on light volume. Moving sideways for now. Gold lost $16 and the XAU fell 5 1/3. Money is coming out of the precious metal. ABX down a point, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM dropped 1 1/3. Volume was pretty good. I did place an order for some ABX May calls. This will be a short term trade if the order is filled. Oversold on ABX and we are at the 200 day moving average. I'm leaving the order in overnight. There is always the chance that we will simply break the 200 day average and continue heading lower. That will be the sign that this trade isn't going to work. The US dollar was up a bit but not a lot. Very oversold there and a bounce can be expected. But that has been the case for several days now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices were dropping pretty good during the day but came back to pare their losses. Still overbought here but in up trends that condition can last a while. Gold has begun to drop and it may have to do with the end of the Fed policy of easy money. That would cause the US dollar to rise and would not be supportive for gold. I think Fridays employment report could be even more important than usual. We'll see on that. Silver is crashing on a daily basis at the moment from its parabolic rise. That won't be positive for gold either. However the Gold/XAU ratio signal just keeps getting stronger on the buy side. That's why I'm willing to step up and try the ABX trade here. We'll see what happens.

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