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Monday, May 02, 2011

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow today as we opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I expect a bit of weakness here to alleviate the short term overbought condition but I still think we are headed higher. Osama Bin Laden was killed over the weekend and that was the catalyst for the strong open. However we could not hold on to the gains. The employment report on Friday holds the key to this week I believe. However we have 3 more days to get there. GE was flat on light volume. Nothing doing there regarding a trade for now. Gold was flat on the day after opening much lower. But we sold off $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX fell 1 1/2, GG dropped 3 and NEM lost 1 1/3. It could be that everyone is heading towards the exits here for gold. However the Gold/XAU ratio is still flashing a buy signal and it is stronger than last week. The dollar was a touch lower today but remains very oversold. I am still considering the ABX May calls but will have to get the price that I want. I'm considering putting in an overnight order. We are now short term oversold on the gold shares. But that doesn't mean that they cannot go lower. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I believe that the Dow is due for a pause here but I've been wrong a lot lately. Any pullback can still be bought, in my opinion. I'm going to look at the ABX May calls for a short term trade. Not exactly sold on this though. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. We'll see if this carries through for tomorrow.

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