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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Profit taking at the end of the month as the Dow lost 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We're still overbought here but that hasn't led to any meaningful declines lately. The summation index continues higher. Pullbacks can be bought in my opinion. The employment report tomorrow should be the key for the next move one way or the other. GE was flat on light volume. We've approached the 50 day moving average and a daily downtrend line. If we can get through those on decent volume GE should move higher. I'm still considering the April 20 calls there. Gold had a good day, up $15 on the futures. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had gains of 1/3 or so on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker today. The gold shares are short term overbought. I'd like to get the May calls if we get a pullback. However there is a chance that gold itself will break out to the upside and new highs here. If that's the case I may just try to jump on board. I'll have to see some volume on the breakout though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The indices are back in overbought mode again and it feels like the market environment before the Japan quake. We'll have to see the reaction to the numbers tomorrow and go from there.

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