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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Another downer today as the Dow lost 138 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. We were down twice as much early but the Dow managed to come back again. Oversold here and I would expect a bounce. However we are in such an event driven marketplace at the moment that anything goes. We had a Fed meeting and announcement today and it took a back seat to the Japan saga. I do like how the US market has held up here though. GE lost 1/3 on very heavy volume. It too made a significant comeback and was down a full point more than where it closed. My GE April calls are in the red. I'm thinking of just dumping them if we get the anticipated bounce in the next couple of days. This is a precarious trade at this point. I do not think that holding on into April is the proper course of action. We'll see. Gold got hammered, off $32. The XAU only fell 2 1/4 as the gold shares came back as well. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/8 and NEM down only 1/4. Volume was a bit higher than average. The dollar was higher early but sold off to close about unchanged. Perhaps the Fed had an influence there. That's a guess. I still want to try the April gold share calls but would like to see a base build in here first. You don't always get what you want. However, the gold shares held up much better than the metal itself and that could be a positive going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Volatility has picked up here and that makes for shorter holding periods in general for the option trades. There are opportunities. The summation index remains to the downside and that must be taken into account. It's only Tuesday but the week seems like it has lasted a long time already. We'll see if the Nikkei keeps dropping overnight and go from there.

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