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Monday, February 14, 2011

The Dow started the week with a slight loss of 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. That usually implies higher prices near term. Combine that with expiration weeks usual positive bias and I think we'll see more gains in the short run. The only trade that I have in mind here would be some OEX puts if we get some more run up tomorrow and Wednesday. We are both short and medium term very overbought. If we hold up for a couple more days, perhaps that is the trade. GE gained 17 cents on light volume. Nothing doing there for now. Gold rose $5 and the XAU gained 4 3/8. GG and NEM tacked on 1/3, while ABX rose a buck. It looks like it's too late for the ABX calls this week. Earnings on Thursday and we've already begun to rise. We'll see. The risk isn't worth it in my opinion but that could change tomorrow. The dollar rose a bit today but closed off its highs. I think maybe the prudent thing to do here is remain on the sidelines. Mentally I'm doing OK. 4 days left in expiration week and unless I try the OEX puts later this week I'm going to have to sit this cycle out. There are always other trades out there. The indices are so blown out to the upside that the technicals just aren't effective. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

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