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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

It was a downer Tuesday as the Dow lost 117 points on better volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I'm still a believer that we will see new recovery highs in the S&P 500. I think that any decline tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade before Fridays expiration. I would like to have the confidence to try the OEX calls tomorrow. That remains to be seen. The summation index has rolled over and is trending down. So caution is advised here also. GE lost 17 cents on average volume. We are right around the $20 area here. I am not going to try anything there. Gold lost $15 and the XAU fell 4 points. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX off 3/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM up 1/3. Volume was a little less than average. The dollar was a bit lower today and it didn't help gold. I sold the ABX calls for about an 85% loss. That was a horrible trade that should not have even been done. It was a loser from the start. There was no solid technical basis to even put it on. I think I was just anxious to do something before the April option cycle ended. It was stupid and I paid for it. Now there is a legitimate chance for an OEX bounce trade and I don't know if I can pull it off after this loser. I don't want to seem like I am doing the OEX trade to try and make back what I just lost on the ABX trade. Mentally I'm in a tough spot. I do believe that weakness can be bought tomorrow but I don't know if I can pull it off. I could be wrong as well. There are only 3 days left for the April option cycle. There is also a ton of data coming out in the next 3 days. Weakness tomorrow does give a short term buy signal on one of my technical indicators. So I will think about all this tonight and go from there. It would not help to compound the ABX loss with another right away. However a winning trade would be a step in the right direction.

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