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Monday, April 18, 2011

A gap to the downside to start the shortened week as the Dow lost 140 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. We were down about 250 at the worst moment of the day. A possible downgrade of US debt was todays culprit for the decline. Summation index heading lower. We are very oversold here. The so-called bounces have been anemic. The S&P 500 is trying to hold the 1300 level. We'll see. GE was flat on the day after being down early. Volume was better than average. No trades here for now. Gold was up $7 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 2 points. The gold shares were mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on better volume. The gold shares too, fell early and then made a comeback during the day. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back at a buy signal. This despite the dollar having a pretty good day. Why the dollar would rally on bad news concerning the US debt at first glance doesn't make any sense. However it could have been just short covering, as the worst news is now out. That's all a guess as usual. Gold is at all time highs. I might try the May gold share calls if the Gold/XAU signal does happen. But it's risky. Gold is overbought here but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way for a while. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to put last week behind me. I have a confidence void at the moment. Losing trades with poor execution will do that. I've got to move on though. I would look for the stock indices to at least stabilize for the rest of the week. If not, then we'll have a better idea of what is going on here.

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