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Monday, April 25, 2011

It was kind of a not much going on type of day following a long weekend as the Dow lost 26 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are taking a pause here at the 1335-1340 level in the S&P 500. My feeling now is that we will break through to new recovery highs soon. But I could be wrong and often am. We've got the Fed meeting this week. That will probably be a catalyst for market movement. 1st quarter GDP and plenty of other economic data as well. So things could get interesting. End of the month as well. GE was flat as well today on average volume. Perhaps the earnings news has been digested by now. I would like to have the guts to try the May calls here. If the S&P does breakout, GE should follow higher. In theory of course. We'll see. Gold was up $5 on the futures today for yet another record high. The XAU dropped 5 2/3 though. Most of this was due to ABX, which fell 3 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. ABX is planning a takeover of another company and the street did not like it. Hence the risk in individual issues. However if you own the puts, things are looking good. GG fell 5/8 and NEM was off 1 3/8. Both on average volume. I think the gold rally is getting long in the tooth but it continues. Overbought and we are due for some type of pullback. Perhaps the Fed announcement on Wednesday will cause some downside. That's a guess, as usual. The dollar remains deeply oversold on a daily and weekly basis. That won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 4 weeks to go for the May option cycle. That should give me enough time to figure out some type of trade. I may try the OEX calls again if we get some backing and filling here. I'm going to lay off the gold calls for now because we are so overbought. GE is back on my radar screen and I would look for the May 20 calls there as the contract to trade. If we get a breakout to the upside on the S&P 500, that could be the next trade for me.

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