The Dow was up 19 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market is trying to find a bottom here I think. Don't know if it will be successful. The volume lately has been huge. Summation index is still pointing down. It has to turn around soon because we are headed towards the zero line. When the market goes through the zero line it collapses. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Gold got slaughtered today. Down around $35. The dollar was higher. The XAU was off over 5 points. Not bad considering. The volume in the ABX calls was very high. I don't know why but time will tell. I have no ideas what to do there at the moment. I'm on the sidelines in the OEX too. That's what happens when you start making mistakes and losing money. You might just miss out on other opportunities because your confidence is shot. That's where I'm at right now. So mentally, I'm a bit skittish. There is no rush to make more mistakes. That, is not a confident outlook. I'm feeling fine, got enough sleep and all. But I need to get back on track mentally and I don't know how long that will take. I'm going on vacation in July and it is only May. A long weekend coming up so we'll see what the 2 days before that brings...

The Dow lost about 27 points today. It was a turnaround as we were up 75 at one point. Advance/declines were negative again and the volume was good again. The market just can't seem to hold on to anything. The summation index is still pointing down and the trend will follow that. Oversold and staying there and that is never good for the market. Gold was up around $8 today and the XAU rose over 2 points. That index was much higher also and sold off too. There is something going on here but I don't know exactly what. Puts seem to be the way to go at the moment. The tone of the market has changed. I will need to keep this in mind. It is starting to remind me of the year 2000 in the markets. People still believed the trend would be up but it just kept dropping and did so for years. I don't think that's the case here but time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I have no trades on the horizon and may just stay out in lieu of the recent severe losses. We'll see. I need to get back to reading the blue book and doing what is necessary for success. Discipline is paramount. Tomorrow could get interesting...

The Dow lost 18 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The market is extremely oversold and is staying there. I don't know what exactly to make of it. I have not trades in the works and after the recent miscues, I might just be out until after my vacation in July. I know that is a long time but things just haven't been working out for me lately. Perhaps it's time for a break. I've sustained some heavy losing trades so far this year. It's true that I've had some good winners. But the losses have been hard to bear. I need a better management discipline and I know what to do, it's just a matter of doing it. Gold was unchanged at the end of the day but sold off hard early. The XAU was down around a couple points. Commodities have been dropping lately. The metals had gotten out of control. There will be a time to play gold again but I think it needs a rest or to build a base before I'll be interested again. Mentally I feel fine considering. Not much else to report today. I'm really just trying to relax and see what transpires here. I should be able to do that.

The Dow was up 15 points on very heavy expiration volume. Advance/declines were positive. I got killed with the calls I bought. I sold them exactly at the wrong time and lost over 80%. If I would have held on to them longer during the day I could have perhaps made 30% to 40%. But I would have had to get out quick. It's hard to believe that there was no good bounce today as I had expected. But the market will do what it does. The market is always right. I guess I should have listened to the summation index. There is nobody to blame but myself. I am having my worst month ever perhaps. The last 3 trades have been losers and 2 of them were substantial. I will have to scale back. I need to rebuild my confidence. This is a good time to re-examine just what the hell I'm doing. The short term timeframe trades just don't work out for me. I need to stop doing them. I also need to step back and check out my risk parameters because I have had some big losers. Getting back to the market, it is very oversold. I am getting buy signals short and longer term. However the lack of positive movement when there should be has me worried also. The tone has changed. I'll need to be on the sidelines. Gold was down over $25 today and the XAU has broken long term support. Getting short the gold issues was the play for May and I blew it. I had a chance there and didn't take it. It's frustrating. Sometimes things just don't work out for whatever reason. This is one of those times. I'm going to have to go over everything and sort things out if I'm going to turn this around. I'm vacationing in July and perhaps there will be no trades until after I get back. Mentally I'm feeling the pain of not performing up to expectations. It isn't easy. There are lessons to be learned that should be a part of the plan already. My trading leaves much to be desired. Hopefully some good will come out of this and I can go on to better things. But right now it feels like shit...

The Dow lost another 77 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I bought some more OEX calls at the close. What can I say? I'm a believer in this trade. There is only a day left though and I'm beginning to understand that these short term things maybe just aren't my style. I still think this thing needs to bounce tomorrow. I paid a bit much for these calls and we dumped at the end so they are already under water. It may have been an extremely stupid thing to do. Tomorrow will tell. The time factor is all important and I should sell these things early if I have half a brain. But perhaps this is one of the rare times where the market just keeps going down and remains oversold. That is a possibility but usually it's very remote. Plus it's options expiration so we'll just have to wait and see. I think it will work but I should have waited for the price that I had put in. After all if it doesn't get filled, there's always another trade. Gold was down $8 today and the XAU lost a couple of points. We are just about at a very important uptrend line in gold on a weekly basis. I don't think it will hold and that could be the end of this fantastic run in gold for a while. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Mentally I'm a little tired from not enough sleep this week. I'm ready for whatever happens tomorrow but even if this trade works, I'm going to have to reassess my trading timeframes and discover what works best for me. I don't think it's these short term deals. Anyway the post tomorrow should be interesting. I'd really be surprised if the market doesn't go up but it could and not enough for me to make any $. Tough game...

The Dow got clobbered today and so did I. Down 214 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. I did put in an order for OEX calls and eventually it got filled. But I'm afraid I was a day early and lost about 45% on that trade. I still think that a good sized up day will happen in the next couple of days unless this thing just absolutely collapses. So I will probably try again tomorrow. I was lucky to get out when I did today as I waited for some type of rally which occurred in the last hour or I would have lost a lot more. Still you can't be happy with a loss but I'm kinda glad I took it, got that trade out of the way and will go from here. 2 days left in the option cycle and the thought did cross my mind that perhaps this timeframe is too short for my ideal trading style. We'll see. The XAU was down 5 points as that market is done for now. I think gold was down also but I was focused on the stock market and did not pay close attention to the metal itself. Where do we go from here. I'll look for some follow-thru to the downside tomorrow morning and perhaps take another position on the long side. I'll have to look for a target to enter. At this point I'm not sure but I am sure that an up day is immanent. With 2 days to go if I can time it correctly, the profits will be worth it. If not it will be another loss. Mentally I'm not feeling so bad considering I had a losing trade today. I am satisfied that I got out because as soon as I saw it was filled I knew that I had to get out. That is the time consideration effect when it is so close to expiration. I did not get enough sleep and won't again tomorrow but I feel an opportunity is at hand and I'd like to make some money off of it. Trading isn't easy. I will think things over tonight and develop a gameplan for tomorrow and Friday. We'll see...

The Dow was down 8 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. I was having quote problems again today. Did not put in any orders. I feel we will have a good upside day at some point this week. However we need some weakness in order for me to try and play it. The inflation number today did not do much for movement in the market. We'll see what happens tomorrow. If we get some weakness then I might get some calls. If not, I'll have to stay on the sidelines. The XAU was off a point and a half as gold actually rose over 8 bucks. I'm going to have to let things sort themselves out over there in gold. I think we've seen the top for a while but I will want to play that commodity again at some point. I didn't get much sleep last night but I'm not feeling too bad. Mentally I'm OK for now. I'll have to do some reading and more work tonight. I am going to try and not force the issue here. If a viable play comes up in the next 3 days, I'll do it. Otherwise I will have to wait for the June cycle. Sometimes you have to remain patient and it isn't easy to do. But there is no reason to take on a lot of risk here. The play will be to the upside via OEX calls if the opportunity presents itself. Not much more than that. Perhaps if we go up first, I'll short the last day this week. But I really would like to see the weakness first and then get the calls.

The Dow bounced back 47 points today. Volume was decent but the advance/declines were negative. I had an order in for some OEX calls but it didn't get filled. Just missed. Not sure what to do now as the market has already started back up. We are still oversold though and the bounce could last. I'd actually still like to get some calls if we drop tomorrow. But I think I missed it. We'll see. If we continue higher early in the week, I'll look for maybe an end of the week short. The trend is down. The McClellan oscillator is in a spot to bounce though so we will probably work higher here. Who knows? Gold got clobbered today and was down $30 at one point. The XAU was off over 10 points at on juncture also. So I missed that one too. It happens. Should have been bolder there but what can ya do? My trading ideas have been right on as of late but the timing is off. I'll continue to work on it. Mentally, I'm keeping my focus and trying not to get so down on myself. I'm continuing to do the work that's necessary and the good trades will come if I do that. There isn't much more I can do. I got a good nights sleep last night and I almost hit this OEX trade. Maybe tomorrow. No other ideas for right now. I'll probably have to pass on gold here for a while until the indicators get back to normal and that could take a couple of months. Inflation reports the next couple of days and maybe I can trade off of them. Hard to say...

Dow down another 120 points. Volume heavy and the advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I hate missing moves. Lost opportunities kill me more than losing money. I don't know why. It was there and I just wasn't paying attention enough. My mind had been in a funk and I don't know why. It pains me. Tough game. Gold was down $10 today and the XAU was off over 6 points. I think this is the top there for a while. The technicals say yes but the volume has not confirmed this. I might try and go out to the June options here. Not sure. Maybe should just stay away from gold for a bit. We'll see. My next move will probably be to catch the bounce from the oversold condition that we are now in. I'm looking to buy some OEX calls on Monday and dump them on an upmove on Tuesday with the producer price index. There is an uptrend line that should be hit on Monday and that is where I might take a stand. Could be dangerous or it could be just the right move. Hard to say when we drop like we have here. Mentally I'm frustrated and pissed off about missing the move. Can't dwell on that though or I'll miss the next one. Hard to do. You really have to stay focused at all costs and that is a lot for anybody. But if you want to be a pro you need to act like a pro. There are no excuses...

The Dow finally got going someplace today and was down 141 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I didn't purchase any OEX puts so I have missed it for now. We should get a sell signal on the summation index today and I will try and get short on any snapback. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU was down over 2 and a half points. This could be the point that I have been waiting for. Or not. ABX had a one day reversal and the put volume expanded a lot. I will maybe look to buy some puts there. NEM was not down as much and I think this could be the turn. And when this thing falls it will be a stampede. I will probably try it. You've got to take some risks in the game or you won't get anywhere. Whatever I decide, it won't involve a lot of money since I'm not totally sold on anything here, technically. Mentally I'm a little down for not getting some puts yesterday as I suppose I just wasn't paying enough attention. We have some inflation numbers next week and if we drift into those, I will get short before the CPI. That was one of the ideas lately. We'll see. I did not sleep well last night but that has nothing to do with missing opportunities. It's a very difficult game to play. You always have to pay attention and keep at it. I try. But sometimes it's just not good enough. Gotta keep going though, there is still time to make some money on this option cycle...

The Dow rose another 55 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'd like to get some OEX puts here. Short term we are overbought. I will check the McClellan oscillator tonight. If it gives a sell signal, I'll buy some puts tomorrow. We'll see what happens and as always, I could change my mind. Gold was up $20 today and hit $700. So much for getting short there. The XAU was up 7 points. I really need to stay away from this market for now. That would be the wise thing to do. Until another buy signal appears or it returns to the uptrend line. It is parabolic and out of control. The normal technical indicators won't work in a market like this. I'll have to focus on the stock indices for now. Actually I'm not so sure of myself at the moment. It would probably be best to just step aside here and go to the sidelines for a while. But there also is a window of opportunity until the expiration next Friday. So the battle is within myself as always. Mentally I'm indecisive and that will kill you in this game. I need to get back on track and stay disciplined. I slept good last night and am well rested. I need to continue the readings and get caught up. The Fed is tomorrow and we'll see what that does to the markets...

The Dow ended higher by 6 points on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. I'm looking for a trade here but can't find one just yet. Fed announcement on Wednesday. Can't see much happening before that. Gold was down about $5 and the XAU was off around a point and a half. I'd still like to short this or some gold shares but the volume is still to the plus side. Probably best to step aside here but the RSI signal is a sell. Hard to buck the trend and I just got killed trying to. So I'm kind of in an indecisive mood here and that isn't good for profits. I really don't know what I'm going to do here but I don't want to do anything stupid. There will be money to be made here though, that is for sure. But my focus isn't completely there, the way it should and needs to be. I don't know why. Maybe it's still a hangover from the last big loss. maybe the markets just don't have anything for me here. Whatever it is, I need to get going with some idea for the next 2 weeks that will be profitable. I can't force the issue but I will need to pay attention. Mentally I'm not all there and that can be hazardous to your trading. I'm a bit tired from not enough good sleep. Perhaps that will change tonight. I'll have to look at the charts and see what I can find. Like I said before, would love to short gold here again but am hesitant. Hopefully things will get clear in my mind and I can go forward. Until then I will try and not sabatoge myself and my trading. A dauntless task...

The Dow rose 138 points on light volume today. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market keeps chugging higher. I don't know what to say. There is a lot of money around that needs to find a home I suppose. I certainly can't explain it. My gameplan now is to look to get short ahead of the CPI, which doesn't come out for over a week. Gold was up over $680 today. Parabolic and I should not have gotten in front of it. In a bull market you either get long or stay out. Even though the NEM puts would have worked, it still wasn't the proper trading tactics. I sold the ABX puts for an 85% loss. Ouch! Of course I should have had a stoploss order in at 50%. But I'm an idiot. It wasn't as big as the last ABX debacle but it was big none the less. I'm putting it behind me though and looking for the next trade. You've got to stay positive and move on. There is always another trade. I'm not going to whine about it, it was a mistake and I've got to move on. I will. In retrospect, it was all wrong and it cost me. This game isn't for the meek and it isn't for the stupid either. But when you do dumb things it costs you. I was lucky to get out without a total loss. And so it goes. I need to check the charts and look for something over the weekend. Two weeks until expiration and there will be some good trades in there if I can find them. FED meeting on Tuesday and that could be the next market mover. Gotta wait for a signal though. Either that or wait for the CPI. That's the plan for now. Could change over the weekend...

A quick post because I'm running late. The Dow was up 38 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Gold was up $8. The XAU was up around 4 points. ABX had great earnings and was up over $2. My ABX puts got killed. Could be a total loss. NEM didn't move and in retrospect I should have gotten them instead. Then, it would have worked. Gold is parabolic. I should have just stayed out. I am a fool for trying what I did. I do think a huge downdraft will come. Timing it is another question. Do not try to short things in a raging bull market. At least learn that lesson. No more time today, more tomorrow...

The Dow lost 16 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. More of the same. There hasn't been a trend here for quite some time. The only thing that has been constant is the rally during expiration week. Gold was up again about $5. The XAU fell a couple points. Usually that means weakness for gold going forward but in this market anything goes. ABX was only down a few cents and the options haven't really moved. Of course if I would have gotten the NEM puts, I'd be making some money. This has happened before and it pains me. But what can you do. The earnings for ABX have come out and they sound pretty good. The volume was heavy today so maybe it will be a sell the news event. The price of gold is probably a more important factor. As I look at the earnings they look to perhaps be a bit light as I saw reports for 32 cents a share and they are actually 29 cents a share. ABX is up a nickel in the aftermarket. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got enough sleep last night. I have a dentist appointment tomorrow near the close so the post could be late or not at all. I'm trying to get caught up on my reading but made little progress last night. I'll try to get some in tonight. I've got to stay focused here. Employment report on Friday. No OEX trades just yet. Summation index moving sideways as is the market. That's it for today...

The Dow rose 73 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'm thinking it is beginning of the month money flows. No trades here for now. Employment report on Friday. Gold was up over $5 and the XAU rose a point and a half. ABX was up about a quarter on good volume. You just can't keep this sector down as we sold off hard early and came all the way back. I'm afraid that these puts I own just won't work out. Earnings for ABX tomorrow after the bell. The options are showing a slight loss right now. No promises about what's about to happen here. Probably should have just stayed on the sidelines but who knows? Oil up again as money keeps flowing into hard assets. Guess there's no stopping it. Mentally I'm tired and did not sleep well last night. I will get back to my readings today and should be caught up by the end of the week if all goes well. Trading isn't easy as recent events have proven that fact once again...

The post will be quick today due to an appointment. The Dow is about 25 points with 5 minutes to go. There were some bearish comments from the Fed in the last hour which has caused this minor decline. Gold was up another $5 today and the XAU is up about a point. I had an overnight order for ABX puts which got filled around 8am. Not sure about this one as the earnings will be out after the bell on Wednesday and it is holding up much better than the rest of the gold complex. NEM is down for example. We will have to wait and see what happens. There is always a danger when you get short in a rip-roaring bull market like this in gold but there is risk in every trade. More tomorrow...

The Dow lost 15 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Microsoft was down big, over 3 points or it would have been an up day. I'm going to wait to see what happens in the beginning of next week and then look to get some OEX puts. We'll see. Gold soared today up around $17. There seems to be no stopping this market. The XAU gained 6 points. I really want to buy some puts on the gold shares but it is a runaway market. I think I'll do it next week though. Sometimes you've got to take a chance. There is risk in any trade. There was more rumblings about Iran today so gold rose. We are overbought and have been for quite a while. However money seems to come in on any pullback. The volume wasn't great today and if we get some more rise early next week on light volume I'm getting some puts. At least that's the plan for now. ABX announces earnings after the bell on Wednesday and that may be the one that I try. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend. Mentally I'm doing OK. Didn't get a good nights sleep but it was enough to get through the trading day. I'm almost caught up on my reading and could be by tonight. I'm going to try and not do something stupid here just for the sake of trading. Perhaps I can find a decent trade over the weekend. I will try and get some rest also. That's it for today...

The Dow was up 28 points today. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was heavy. We were up higher and also were down a bit early. Could be a change in the works or just end of month volume. Bernanke spoke today and the markets liked it again. China raised its rates which was a mild surprise. Not sure what to make of it all but I don't expect any big moves up or down just yet. Gold was off $5 and the XAU got pounded, losing over 5 points. My order for puts was not filled and it looks like that I could have missed this downmove in the XAU. We'll see. Might get some rise in gold shares with the beginning of the month money flows so I'll hope for that. Then again, we might not. I'm not going to lament this too much but I think the time is now for a pullback in gold. The overall trend remains up so I will keep that in mind as I look to the future. Not much else to write about today. Mentally I'm doing fine, waiting for the next trade. Perhaps I should already be in it. I don't like to buy the options the first week after expiration but sometimes you just have to go with what you feel. The technicals also supported getting short the gold shares. I have been focusing on gold a lot lately but that's where the money has been. I'm still always watching the OEX and perhaps will have another trade there soon.

The Dow was up 71 points today. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. I still think it's a sideways affair here for a while. No OEX trades yet. Gold was up another $7 today and the XAU rose 2 1/2 points. I think we are due for a pause here as the volume was weak today. I placed a GTC order for some ABX puts. We'll see if it gets filled. Not all that sure that it's the right thing to do but it might work. We're overbought and have been for some time now. We could stay overbought so there isn't a lot of money in this trade. We also have plenty of time for the May option cycle. I'm not in a hurry to get this filled and it is priced accordingly. I'm trying to not make a trade just for the sake of having something. This trade is based on the volume pattern and the overbought nature of things at the moment. Who knows? I might cancel it tomorrow. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as good as I could. I'm doing the reading that I need to get caught up on and I'm paying attention in case something changes here. Big Ben of the Fed speaks tomorrow and we'll see how that moves the markets. Otherwise it's just more of the same as I search for the next opportunity...

The Dow lost 53 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The summation index is pointing down again. I still think we will get more drift than anything else right now. But you never know. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU rose only a point. This portends lower prices to come. I might want to short the XAU here soon. We'll see. I haven't been doing the work as diligently as I should be right here. Too many outside things going on that need to be curtailed. I'm also tired from walking and playing golf yesterday. I didn't sleep well either. I need to get back on track and will attempt to do so starting today. The readings must be done and the charts must be checked. I'm mentally out of it at this point. The markets will not wait for me. They will do what they want. Which helps make this the toughest game in the world I think. You've got to pay attention all of the time. There are no shortcuts. You either put forth the effort and do the work or you perish. It's totally up to you. You're either up to the challenge or not. Why do you think so many can't do it? Because it's easy? Once you know what is required for success, you either keep up or you are just fooling yourself. And that gets expensive. So just do the work, give it your best shot or find another way to spend your time.

The blog will be early today because I'm playing golf. The Dow can't get moving today and is down around 6 points at the moment. Volume is nothing special. Advance/declines are decidedly negative. I would like to get short but the options are expensive and we have been moving sideways for weeks. Gold lost $12 today but the XAU is only down a point and a half. Trying to stay away from here for now. Same problem with overpriced options this soon into the expiration. I would expect the XAU to drop a lot more with that move in gold but it isn't happening. Usually it means higher prices in the near term. We'll see. Otherwise nothing to report. Mentally I'm doing OK. I need to keep at it. Discipline is necessary. So I'm keeping an eye on things and we'll just have to see how it all pans out. No trades really on the horizon but that could change. I'd like to wait a week but who knows? Dow looking at unchanged now and it is run in place type of day...

The Dow rose 4 points on option expiration Friday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly positive. We moved around during the day but ended up basically unchanged. Gold bounced back over 12 bucks and the XAU was up 5 points. NEM gained back 2 points. The volume was good. Of course who could tell we would bounce back like that? The NEM calls ended up higher than where I sold them yesterday. But that trade is over and where we go from here is what matters now. I'm not exactly sure what to do right now so I'll probably be on the sidelines for a bit. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. I'll probably at least let a week go by. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I haven't been getting the proper rest that I need. I have been getting caught up on my reading and that's a good thing. There is still more work to be done. It was quite an option cycle in April. Big gains and my biggest loss in some time. I need to get better. My focus has been pretty good of late. But in this game you've got to be good and you've got to be fast. Improvement is needed on my part. I'll continue to push on because really, that's all I can do. Hopefully things will get better. The work never stops and the markets wait for no one...

The Dow was up 64 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative though. Most of the gain was due to GM having good earnings. I don't see any big moves up from here. I think the expiration is keeping us up at this point. I expect weakness early next week. The story was gold. It got killed, down over $12. The first decline of significance in quite a while. It disappoints me that it just couldn't hold up for one more day. NEM came out with great earnings just as I had thought. But the weakness in gold was extreme and everything gapped down big. You can have everything go as you think and still get killed in this game. Volatility works both ways. I suppose yesterday would have been the time to sell and I might have if I wasn't waiting for the earnings. And it could have been a great trade if not for the pounding in gold on the same day. I dumped the calls early, when I realized that the market was not going to come back or even attempt to rally. My hesitation cost me some money, for sure. I should have just got out immediately but sometimes it's hard to tell. Or maybe I just got greedy but I'm not so sure about that. It wasn't completely clear to see what would happen. You really just never know. You can't predict a gap down like that. It's a tricky market in gold for sure. The highs and lows sometimes are pretty volatile. But you put forth your best effort and do what you can. I guess I was lucky to get out when I did. I'm not happy with the results and I should have done better. You really have to have your act together to play this game. The NEM calls showed a profit of over 400% but it should have been a hell of a lot more than that. NEM ended the day down 3 bucks. All the gold shares plummeted. The XAU lost nearly 10 points. Unheard of but it has happened before. I now need to regroup. The April option cycle has been brutal. I have nothing on the horizon and will have to wait for gold to settle down. My next thought is to get short the OEX for sometime in May. We'll see...

The Dow rose 10 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. No big follow through but at least it didn't fall. The inflation data was bearish but the market kind of shrugged it off. We are overbought here though. Gold rose over $10 and the XAU was up 5 points. This thing is out of control. NEM was up about a buck and a half. We were down on the XAU at one point and I almost sold the calls. But I did say I would wait until the earnings and that is tomorrow. But perhaps I just should have dumped them after they rallied. Either way this trade should make some money and if the earnings are good, a lot of money. I also remembered when I sold the ABX calls right before they turned around. Patience is needed in the game sometimes. The trouble here is that there are only 2 days left on the NEM options. So really, how patient can you be? It also looks like it is selling off in the aftermarket but tomorrow will be the key. Way overbought here also and I'm out tomorrow no matter what. I don't know what lessons are to be learned here but something will happen one way or the other. I'm probably going to stay away from gold on the long side after the expiration but the trend is definitely up and the money is flowing that way. I'll need to either short it or search for other opportunities. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. We still have tomorrow to deal with. Mentally I'm doing fine for now. Getting enough sleep and doing the reading that is necessary and catching up on things that need to be done. It takes time but the time must be put in to be successful. There are no short cuts.

Did I say something about buying calls yesterday? I was too busy watching NEM and have missed a good trade in the OEX. Hindsight is easy, isn't it? The Dow rose 195 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. OEX calls that I was looking at quadrupled. I didn't have the necessary focus to make that happen. I really needed to pay more attention. It is something that needs to be worked on. You just have to be on the ball and do the work necessary if you want to be successful in this business. There are no shortcuts. That's why it is so tough. And that's why hardly anybody can do it. You just gotta do the work, day in and day out. You've got to be on top of things. Any other type of effort just won't cut it in the long run. Most people are lazy and that is why most people fail. Gold was up just a touch today. The XAU rose 3 points. NEM was up around 80 cents and fell off from its highs. The calls I own are profitable. We are not completely overbought yet. I do expect weakness tomorrow ahead of the earnings. It will all depend on Thursday morning for this trade unless something drastic happens tomorrow. The other metal companies have announced great earnings and have risen on the announcement. That is what I am counting on for NEM. It doesn't mean that it will happen. But I'm trying to play the percentages for this earnings cycle. If we were completely overbought I would bail out early. But we're not so there is a chance this could be a great trade. Getting back to the overall market, I should have been paying attention. I'm not going to beat myself up over this forever but the fact remains I missed out. Risk is part of the game and I should have taken one there. I need to be able to handle more than one thing at a time. The focus needs to return. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow and we will wait for the NEM earnings on Thursday.

The Dow lost 63 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold. The McClellan oscillator is giving a signal for a big move within the next 2 days. I think it will be to the upside. Do I have the guts to play it? I don't know. Probably should have bought some calls today. Inflation data on Wednesday could be the key. Or perhaps not. Gold soared $18 today. The XAU was up over 6 points. Oil closed above $70. NEM was up around 3 points. The calls I own are in the black. Now what to do? Earnings are coming out on Thursday. But I already have a nice profit. The earnings should be good though. But there aren't any guarantees. Gold is way overbought here also and out of whack with reality I think. It has a lot to do with the rhetoric from Iran lately. But this could turn out to be a great trade if it all falls into place on Thursday. If not, it could blow up in my face. It is never easy. I would really like to get some ABX calls here too because the volume is confirming the move higher. But perhaps I'll have to wait for some type of pullback at this point. Back to the OEX. Maybe I can get some calls tomorrow and dump them before the end of the week. It's risky but what isn't in this game? I'll have to check the charts. My attention must go to the NEM trade also. I'll need to check what the inflation number expectations are. Mentally I'm doing good, getting plenty of rest and I just returned from a beautiful hike. I need to focus my energy on what is going on here for the next few days and then relax when all is said and done. I think there are some great opportunities here, right in front of me. Whether or not I can take advantage of them will be the key.

A day off today. Gold did trade in the world today and was up a couple bucks. I can get caught up today on the reading I need to do perhaps. Or maybe just take it easy. Not much else to say. Just need to prepare for options expiration next week. That and the NEM trade needs to be taken care of. Just random thoughts today.

The Dow was up 7 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. It was a lackluster day as expected. So far all we've gotten is a weak bounce. Probably more downside to follow. I had thought about getting some GE calls since the chart was looking promising. The earnings came out today and the stock sold off. Didn't I say something about not getting any more GE options this year? I think I did and I need to remember that. Gold was off over a buck and the XAU rose a half. NEM was down a few cents. The calls I own are slightly in the red. Earnings for this one are a week from tomorrow, when the options expire. I'm thinking I might just bail out before them if I can show a profit. Or it might be too late to do anything by then anyway. I guess we'll have to see what gold does over the weekend. I'll need to check the charts and be ready for Monday. But it is a long weekend and I'll want to just take it easy for a while. Mentally I guess a little break would be OK. I didn't sleep all that well last night so I'm glad today was mellow. However I really need to do some more work to seek some other opportunities. The stock market itself has been moving sideways and it's hard to make money in that kind of environment. I also have some cash sitting in another account that needs to be put to work. So there are things to do and take care of over the weekend. But I will try and get some rest and take my mind off this crazy game...

The Dow was up 40 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. It looks like we are marking time until the long weekend begins at the close tomorrow. I wouldn't expect much to go on tomorrow. Next week will be the key. Summation index is still pointing down so that's the trend for now. We could move sideways perhaps. Gold was up a buck and a half. The XAU rose over 3 points. NEM was back up, over a dollar. The options I bought yesterday are back at breakeven. But that doesn't mean much except that I can maybe not lose any money here. The volume wasn't all that strong and gold itself is about where it can go for now at around $600. I should have gotten the calls cheaper. Looking back isn't really going to help I guess, so I'll manage the trade from here. Mentally I feel pretty good since I got lots of sleep last night. I suppose I'll have to wait for the NEM earnings unless something dramatic happens before then. I expect tomorrow to be a non-event all the way around. I'm behind in my readings and need to get back up to speed there. That's it for today...

The Dow lost 51 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. We are about shot term oversold here. I am not going to try and trade the bounce. I have already made a dumb trade today. I bought some NEM calls today. They are already getting clobbered. Gold was down a couple bucks but the XAU was down over 3 points. I got the calls before NEM went into a freefall. I might just have to dump them tomorrow and take the loss before it gets out of hand. You have to be smart in the game. You have to be patient in the game. The charts were not at all in the right mode for me to do this but I thought the uptrend would continue here. There is still over a week to go but I will have to see something constructive in the next 2 days before the long weekend. The earnings on this one do come out the day before expiration and an upside surprise could save this if we are close enough to the strike price by then. But todays action didn't look good and I am probably a fool for trying to do this. The timing doesn't seem to be right. Mentally I'm tired and did not get a full nights sleep. I need some rest. This is a short week and NEM needs to get back to $52.50 by the close on Thursday for this to have a chance. It's a buck away. You can never be too sure about anything here and you've always got to be on yours toes against yourself. There was no good reason to try this trade but I had it in my mind and I did it anyway. I'm lucky to be where I'm at as it is so far this year because the trading has been terrible. Horrible. Just not any good. This trade is another prime example...

The Dow gained 21 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not a real positive day. The summation index has turned down and that means selling. We are almost oversold and will be in a day or 2. There isn't any compelling reason to try and do anything here. I'll wait for a decent signal. But the trend, for now, is down. Gold was up 9 dollars today. However the XAU was down half a point. Interesting. It usually means gold is about to have some weakness but who knows? I'd still like to try some calls again before the expiration. But if we can't get any buying with a 9 dollar move, then what? NEM is about at its uptrend line but the other issues have already broken through to the downside. This is a tough call. Short week this week too with a holiday on Friday. I was expecting to just have the XAU hang around this week with some downside to set up a possible rally again next week. But it's just a guess. I'll check things this evening and go from there. Mentally I'm still getting over the cold I had last week and am taking it easy today. I am behind on some of my reading and probably should catch up on it today. I'm ready for the next trade, I guess but physically I'm still a little drained. There is no room for the weak in this game and I am keeping that in mind. It has already been a miracle comeback again this year, with all the lousy trading that I've done. I'd like to get it together and be a little more consistent with the successes. Wishful thinking at this point...

The Dow lost 96 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. There just weren't too many buyers. We were also up against the top of the channel in the S&P 500. No trades here for now. Gold was down 6 bucks and the XAU lost over 3 points. I would like to buy back some calls here at some point. There are 2 weeks left for this option cycle. It won't be easy. I might even just pass on it but probably not. I will check the charts over the weekend. I think we will get one more move up before the options expire. I'm still not feeling 100% but I do feel better than earlier in the week. I do need to rest. Therefore, another short post today.

The Dow was down 23 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. Employment report tomorrow. Gold touched $600 dollars today. It has been quite a rise. This is about as far as it goes I think, short term. I sold my ABX calls. I think that it could go a bit higher in the next 2 weeks but the signal to sell, for me anyway, was today. I did what I could. The profit was over 300%. But as I said before this trade should have been a lot better. I needed more patience. I was too early. And then sold half of it at a big loss. I hope I learn something from all this. I should by now. I later sold the NEM calls. I am hoping to buy them back cheaper in a couple of days. The profit there was a little over 80%. Perhaps this wasn't the thing to do. But now it's done. I will go from here. It is a frustrating game and a very tough business. That is reality. I am still feeling ill and will have to end this post...

The Dow was up 35 points on decent volume. Advance/declines were positive. Employment report is out on Friday. We are up against resistance. We'll see what happens. Gold was up a couple bucks. The XAU rose almost 3 points. ABX and NEM were both up nicely although off of their highs. It is almost time to dump the ABX calls and it could be as soon as tomorrow if I get a signal. We are just about there. They are showing the profit that I always thought they would. Now we could always sell-off tomorrow. There are no guarantees in the business. NEM isn't acting as I would like but there are over 2 weeks to go there too. I need to check the charts there but it is not as overbought as ABX. Gold hasn't hit 600 yet either. I am still feeling ill and will end this post now. I am getting better but not fully recovered as yet...

The Dow gained 59 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Doesn't look like there are any sellers here but that could change. Gold was down a couple bucks but the XAU rose a point. I'd expect sideways action in the XAU this week and then hopefully an upmove next week. That is the scenario I'm looking for. ABX an NEM were both up a bit. ABX sold off from its highs. I look for that to consolidate here. I'll be looking to get out next week or when gold crosses $600. NEM creates more problems and I probably should not have done that trade. It could work out but in retrospect I should have just held on to ABX. I'm feeling horrible, I'm still sick and have no desire or strength to write any more today...

The Dow gained 35 points on good volume. However the market was up well over 100 at one point. And advance/declines were negative today. It bodes for down to sideways action at best. It wasn't any better in the gold market. The XAU was up over 4 points and closed barely up a point. This, while gold itself rose 8 dollars. There was a downgrade on NEM today and it sank. My options are in the red. I just never seem to get it right. It pisses me off. Still a little less than 3 weeks to go but I'm not happy. ABX was up a bit and I might at least be able to make some money there. But my trading is slipshod and I am not feeling well. I have the flu or something with a sore throat and I'm feeling weak. Therefore this post will end now. I can't think straight at the moment. It doesn't happen often that your physical condition will dictate things but this is one of those rare times...

The Dow lost 41 points to end the month today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly positive. We have been moving sideways for a while now. I don't foresee any big moves anytime soon but what do I know? Not much. Gold was down around 4 bucks today and the XAU lost a point and a half. I bought some NEM calls on the pullback. I'm believing that the gold breakout was for real and I expect gold to go over $600 before the options expire in 3 weeks. I could be wrong, as I was earlier in the week when I sold the ABX calls at a substantial loss. I did say that I needed to take a break but I now feel the opportunity is now. Sometimes you have to be flexible. I could be entirely wrong on this trade and will sustain heavy losses. I also could be right in my assessment of what is going on. Trading is not an exact science. I believe in what I'm doing and we'll have to wait it out and see what happens. Mentally I need to get some rest over the weekend. This has been a tough week. But I am trying to stay focused and do what needs to be done. I am taking a risk here and I will do my best to make it work out the right way. The markets will do what they do. I think I'm doing the right thing here. Time will tell. I'll check the charts over the weekend and start all over again on Monday.

The Dow lost 65 points today on expanding volume. Advance/declines were negative but not by much. End of the quarter tomorrow. Might see some swings. I think the market wants to go higher here though. I don't see any big decline at the moment. That could change, as always. Gold continued to rise and it broke out to new highs on expanding volume. It was up over $9. ABX was up over 80 cents and the volume was good there as well. We are overbought and up against some channels. I'm going to buy some more calls on a pullback or sideways action. I regret selling earlier this week but you've got to make adjustments and my original prognosis earlier seems to be proving correct. Of course it could all blow up in my face again too. I'll wait, hopefully, for gold to come back to $575 and get long there. I think we are going over $600 before these options expire. The ABX calls I still have a slightly in the black. I might switch to NEM or perhaps some XAU calls for the next trade. We'll see. I do have some targets in mind. And again, I also have to keep in mind that I could be wrong and that this won't work. But the volume has come in and there is a breakout. More tomorrow...

The Dow bounced back and was up over 60 points today. Volume looks like it was a bit better than yesterday and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Perhaps the decline yesterday was a one day wonder. Time will tell. The end of the month is upon us and maybe that is bringing in more money. Gold actually came back and was up over 2 bucks today. The XAU rose over 4 points. And I'm kicking myself for selling the calls yesterday. But not too hard because you just never know. But ABX was up over 60 cents today. Now perhaps this trade would have worked like I originally thought but what can you do? I'm still holding the cheaper purchases but I sure would like to have them all now. But I'm not going to lament over what has happened, I've got to just keep moving on. I already have big losses for the year so I'm going to try and do the rest of this trade correctly. Todays gold action was on lighter volume but perhaps all the sellers are gone for now. The action was very positive. We'll see how the week closes out there. Still 3 weeks to go after this one and I should have taken that into consideration yesterday. But I was early there and put too much money in it. Mistake compounded by mistake. Trading isn't easy. Mentally I'm trying to stay steady amidst the ups and downs lately. This is a crazy game. I've got to get my act together fast. I will try and get back to the things that are necessary for success tonight. The work never stops. Back to gold itself, we are up to the resistance at $575. A break through there will be interesting but it hasn't happened yet.

The Dow lost 95 points today after the Fed raised interest rates again. Volume was light to average and advance/declines were negative. The Fed statement was hawkish and that led to the decline. It was the biggest loss in a while if my memory is correct. Gold sold off after the Fed move and that killed the rally that had been going on for about a week. I sold half of my ABX position at a substantial loss, about 75%. I don't think that ABX will be coming back after todays action and I probably just should have dumped it all. But hope is always a bad thing sometimes and that is all that is left in this trade. I've seen some strange things happen in the market but I don't anticipate anything saving the rest of this. I put too much money in this trade and that is why the loss is so great. That was a mistake and the discipline that was missing killed me. It is not a lesson that really needs to be learned at this juncture of my career but I got greedy and paid for it. There is nothing I can do but go on, perhaps with a little better perspective. Greed kills. It doesn't matter how many times that a set-up works, there is always the chance that it won't work when your money is on the line. My 1st quarter results are disastrous. Last year I was able to come back and have a good year after starting off just as poorly but to pull that off again is really asking a lot. I'll have to go slow and cautious from here. I still have half the ABX trade to get rid of. More losses most likely. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected with heavy losses weighing on my mind. I'm also tired from not sleeping well from all the drama in my life outside of trading. I need to get the focus back. I need to get the discipline. I need to go back to what works and forget all the rest of the bullshit. The work needs to be done and I have to stay with what I know is viable. This is a big hole to climb out of and I did not want to start the year off this way. But it is what it is and I will have to regroup and go from here. It's a tough game but I will do my best to get back on track and do the right thing...

The post is a bit early today due to the fact that I'm getting my car worked on. The Dow is up 15 points with just a few minutes to go. Advance/declines are positive. Seems like the market is waiting for the Fed on Tuesday. Gold soared $10 today. The XAU is up over 3 points but the volume isn't all that great. Most of the action is in AU, which has some type of buyout in play. ABX is up around 40 cents but it isn't helping the options much. I would have expected a better move in the gold shares given the action in gold. Perhaps the luster is off the trading in gold. The weekly charts do look promising though but we will have to see legitimate upside action next week. I don't know if that will happen. I think that perhaps the sideways scenario will play out. We'll see. Mentally I really think I need to get out of this trade and take a few steps back. I feel fine but my confidence isn't where it needs to be. I need to go back to the basics and not dwell on what looks to be a substantial loss. The markets are closing and the Dow looks to be up about 7 points. Volume looks like it picked up a bit from yesterday. That's it for today. I'm playing golf again on Monday so the next post could be Tuesday.

The Dow lost 47 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. It seems like the market wants to go higher. Gold was down a bit but the XAU rose 2 points. That could bode well for the gold market. However ABX did not participate and was down a dime. And there lies the problem. Once again the gold market is moving to the upside but the particular stock that I'm in isn't moving. It's happened before and it is very frustrating. But it brings out an important point. You gotta stick with the indexes to guard against this very thing happening. I learned this a long time ago. There is less of a chance for manipulation. I can't explain why ABX isn't moving along with everything else. I am going to have one of my biggest losses with this trade. I don't think it will be moving back to the upside strongly. I think at this point it will linger in a sideways motion. There is nothing left to do but take the loss. There are 4 weeks left but I don't think that will help. The fundamentals are not in it's favor now. I blew it. I don't know if I can recover for the rest of the year. It will be hard for me to go on. Mentally, I'm spent. There is way too much going on outside of the markets in my life to be able to cope with it all right now. This is the time to step back from trading but unfortunately I'm in up to my neck. I've got to go back to square one. I need to learn from this debacle and do the right thing from here on out. It isn't going to be easy. So I'll just have to takwe it from here and see where it takes me. There are no excuses. I screwed it up...

Up about 82 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Gotta make this quick because I'm running a bit late. Gold was down over 2 bucks but the XAU didn't move much. ABX continued to slide and it looks bleak for the options. At this point it will be my biggest loss ever unless it starts to turn around. I really broke one of the cardinal rules and put way too much money in this trade. The set-up had worked the previous times but it doesn't appear to be good this time. It's like I said before, it's my own fault. Discipline must be adhered to and I didn't do it. Mentally I'm shot now. There is no excuse for making dumb mistakes. I don't even know if I can recover from this one. This is not the way to run the business. The focus isn't there. The confidence is gone. And it's not even the end of the 1st quarter. I'll somehow have to try and regroup but I think some time away would serve me well at this point. More tomorrow...

The Dow lost 39 points today on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were higher early in the day and then just fell off. Not trades in the making for now. There is an extra week on the options for this cycle so they are all pretty overpriced. Gold was down over $3 today and the XAU lost 2 and a half points. My ABX calls are getting killed and there may not be any hope for this trade either. I did say I would give it a couple weeks, so we'll see what happens. But right now it looks bleak. Perhaps my thinking was wrong as that is what it looks like at this point. I suppose we could form a bottom here and rally, time will tell. But it really doesn't look too good at the moment. I took yesterday off from the blog as I went hiking. Mentally I'm doing OK, with the exception of this poor trade. But I've seen some strange things happen with the gold market and so I haven't given up hope on this just yet. I'll know more by the end of the week. It won't take a miracle but it will take some sustained upside action. Or maybe it just dies. I am still way overleveraged in this trade and that is my own fault. No getting around that. So sometimes you just get what you deserve. Otherwise there is really nothing else to say...

The Dow rose 26 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. It wasn't a volatile sessions, even with the option expiration. We are overbought and I wouldn't be surprised if Monday was a down day. Gold was little changed and the XAU didn't go anywhere either. ABX was up about 50 cents at one point and my options were in the black. But it sold off at the close and was basically unchanged. I didn't like the action. It doesn't bode well for early next week. Perhaps I should just get out of this trade and maybe today was my chance. But I will give it the 2 weeks that I said I would. Obviously my timing wasn't that good at the entry. This whole thing could blow up on me if we don't see some movement to the upside next week. It isn't the best of trades at the moment. You somehow have to keep going in this game. It is frustrating at times and this is one of those times. Mentally I'm doing what it takes as far as keeping up with my readings of the blue book and various magazines looking for insight. I am learning what I can but it is a mental game at this point, internally. I'm doing what I can. I will be taking off early on Monday to take a hike. I'm hoping it will clear my head out and then I'll be ready to continue the game. I'll check the charts over the weekend but I already think that they won't be bullish. I'm going to try and relax but we'll have to see what happens...

The Dow was up 43 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We are overbought and I wouldn't be surprised by a pullback. Expiration tomorrow and anything can happen. I have no trades on the horizon. There is an extra week in the options cycle for next month so the premiums will be inflated. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU was down a point. ABX did not move much, it was down a nickel. The options are showing a small loss. We have moved to overbought there as well and I suppose the most I can hope for is sideways action. I'm really hopeful that I bail out of that trade in a couple weeks because I am overleveraged there and that is a mistake. However, I was a believer in the trade at the outset and I still think it could prove to be a winner. Mentally I'm doing fine, plenty of sleep. I am simply concentrating on the ABX trade and that is where the focus will be. Next week will be pivotal because I can't afford to have a big drop in the shares. It looks OK on a weekly basis and the extra week could actually help me there. That's it for today.

The Dow was up 58 points on better volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The Transports hit a new high. We have broken out of the S&P trading range to the upside. All systems point higher I guess but we will have to wait and see just how far this goes. Could be an options expiration event. Could be for real. Gold was higher early but backed off and was only up around a buck. The XAU rose about 2 and a half points though. Unfortunately ABX did not go along for the ride. It was only up a few cents. The options are now almost breakeven. I'm giving it until the end of the month and maybe not even that long. I don't know what to expect but I was pretty positive when the trade began. Getting back to the overall market, we are overbought and on a trin basis also. You can't argue with price action though and we have moved higher. We'll see what happens. Mentally I am doing better. Got plenty of sleep last night. I really need this ABX trade to be done right. It's up to me. The trading so far this year has been terrible. I have the parameters for this trade and it will be up to me to keep them. I've got to remember not to get greedy. I'm hoping this trade will launch me into a series of decent actions and not into a year of abysmal abyss. Time will tell...

The Dow gained 75 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. My puts got stopped out for a 50% loss. There wasn't a lot of money in this trade but it was a loss none the less. I gave it a shot and failed as has been the case for most of this year. I don't believe this rally, the volume just isn't there. Could be an expiration thing. Whatever the case, it's another bad trade. Gold was up another $5 today and the XAU gained over 2 points. Unfortunately ABX didn't rise with it. It is showing a small loss and more and more I'm thinking about just getting out and taking a break. But I did say I would give it until the end of next week. Nothing seems to be working of late. It really is time to scale back. Mentally I'm just not there as I have found out some bad news concerning my family. I would like to just close out the ABX trade but the show must go on. I'm also tired as I haven't been able to sleep good lately. So this really isn't the optimum time for me to be taking on risk and trying to play the game. The focus will be lacking due to outside influences. Knowing this and recognizing this is important. There isn't anything I can do about it for now. Having an overleveraged position at this time doesn't help things. But I will persevere because it's really all I can do...

The Dow was basically unchanged today, down 32 cents. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I took a small position in OEX puts today. The stop-loss order has already been placed. My thinking is that there was no follow through to the 100 point rally of Friday and the volume has been light. No volume equals no interest. Another more important factor is that the summation index is still pointing down. There is not a lot of risk in this trade but there is not a lot of upside either unless we really get a breakdown. I don't see that happening but who knows? The technicals are mixed here but I'm taking a shot. Gold was up over $5 today but the XAU barely got higher by a point. ABX was up fractionally. I am still giving this until the end of next week so I'm looking to get out but not yet. This trade is now showing a small loss and I am way overleveraged here and it's my own fault. I still believe in it though so I am staying in for now. Not much else on the radar screen. Inflation data on Thursday. I'm not looking for much but you never know. Retail sales tomorrow. Mentally I'm dragging a bit from a poor nights sleep but hope to make up for that tonight. My mind is focused and my trading tactics this time are at least bearable. Whatever the outcome at least some things were done properly...

The Dow rose 104 points today on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I am thinking of getting some puts on Monday. But I don't know for sure. Will check things over the weekend. I lost money on the XAU trade today. Gold opened up down over $10. I bailed out for a substantial loss. It didn't make sense at the time to hold on any longer. The loss was around 75%. Since the ABX calls have 6 weeks to go, I held on to them as opposed to taking a huge hit there as well. Gold came back to be down about $5 on the day. However the XAU came all the way back to be up over 2 points. The options I sold for a big loss made it back to breakeven. What can you do? Nothing, it's over and done with. Should I have held on? In retrospect, of course I should have. But you can never predict what's going to happen. I did what I thought was best at the time. I was wrong. The ABX calls came back a bit but nothing great and I'm still losing money there and I own way too many of them. I took more of a chance there and will hold them for a while at this point. I need to see a good week for gold next week to feel positive about this trade. I'm still thinking that it was the right thing to do but I really have too much money in that trade. The markets are tough. Mentally I'm going to try and make some money next week. I think that I have a viable play on the OEX puts if the timing is right. It probably won't be a lot of money and it shouldn't be with so little time left. I'm a bit tired from getting up early today. I'm a bit frustrated with the lousy XAU trade but it isn't as bad as I thought and I'm trying not to beat myself up over it. I will perhaps take a break after next week to clear my head out. But this weekend I will be working hard to figure out the next move. Sometimes you've just got to keep on going because really, it's all you can do...

The Dow lost 33 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I did not take any OEX positions. Gold was up over $2 but the XAU lost over 2 points. My XAU calls were higher in the morning but closed lower and are now in the red. We are at around 125 and need a close tomorrow at 128 or better. Needless to say, I should have just gotten out in the morning. This trade is looking terrible. I need to exit tomorrow. That is probably the most prudent thing to do. What wasn't prudent was buying some more ABX calls for April. I have put way too much money into this trade. ABX was down over 80 cents today and I don't know what to say. We are way oversold here. Every time it has gotten this blown out it has rebounded. There are 6 weeks to go in these options. I just don't know about this time though because it looks like gold is really breaking down. And if the XAU doesn't show some life tomorrow, I could be a fool. I am breaking one of the key trading rules here by taking on too much risk. The trade is too big. I am taking a chance because I believe that this will work and sometimes you gotta break the rules to get good returns. Employment report tomorrow. Should be a market mover but it hasn't been lately. Mentally I was at the dentist today and that threw things off for a while. I need to get back to the blue book and get my act together. I know it seems like I say this all the time but if things are going to change for the better, discipline must be adhered to. Bottom line is that the trading must improve and I'm the only one who can do that.

The Dow was up 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. We were down over 60 points and bounced. That's all I think this is for now. It is a somewhat confusing market here because we have collapsed on the summation index and McClellan oscillator but prices have held up pretty good. I don't know what to make of it. Perhaps will buy puts tomorrow if we get to the downtrend line. Gold got killed today, down over $12. My overnight orders got filled right away in the morning. I'm nervous but that is nothing new. The XAU ended down about 3 points and ABX was off around 50 cents. Amazingly the options are about where I bought them. The XAU has to close the week at 128 or above for that trade to work. It's at 126 and change. I really need to get out of that as soon as possible because there is a chance that the uptrendline will be broken. We'll know more in the next couple of days. I also might dump the ABX calls if they get profitable because I think we will move sideways and I can get them cheaper within the next couple of weeks. But it is just a guess. We do need to hold the line here and only time will tell on that. But this is the area to take a chance so we will see what happens. Mentally I'm a bit tired but it's manageable. Thinking that I have to check the charts thoroughly tonight. The time is now...

The Dow gained 22 points today on somewhat light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. Yesterday we were down around 60 points on good volume. I missed posting due to playing a round of golf. The summation index has rolled over and is pointing down. However we are shot term oversold and a bounce is due. Also the McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today, probably below -150. So I would expect a bounce but I think the trend is down and might get some puts on a bounce. We'll see. Gold lost around $5 today and the XAU dropped below 130. I had some orders for calls in but they were not filled. This is the area where I expect support to come in. The weekly trendline is here. But there is always a chance the line could be broken. Gold itself doesn't look all that good on the charts. I have some open orders in for the XAU and for ABX. The XAU is just a short term play for March, with ABX going out to April. I was confident about this trade before so I'm going to chance it. But I know full well that this could be the end of the run in gold also. I'm playing that it isn't just yet. ABX looks like the better trade, chartwise. I might try some OEX calls tomorrow also if the opportunity presents itself, although I feel the puts might make more sense after a bounce. But it's hard to tell what might happen and the market will always do what it must to frustrate the most. This is an interesting time in the markets and I sincerely hope that I'm up for the challenge...

The Dow lost about 4 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. It wasn't a very good close. We were up over 70 points at on point. The volume was light and the advance/declines were weak. We also were at the recent highs. I should have had the guts to buy some OEX puts but I didn't. The signal just isn't there clearly. But after todays action, I don't think it needs to be clear. I think puts are the way to go here. I will check things out over the weekend. The McClellan oscillator will be key I think. The only problem is that we could just sit in a sideways pattern and that won't be easy to deal with. It's never easy. Gold was down a couple bucks and so was the XAU. I'm trying to be patient there and I will be, hopefully. It looks like we are trying to build a base here and that is my belief. I would like to make a strong play here because I think it has the potential to be a great trade if I can pull it off. But I don't want it to take up all my time because there will be opportunities elsewhere as well. But it is the main one I'm looking at, since the OEX is proving difficult at this time. Perhaps Monday will provide an opportunity to get short but it won't be as good as it was today I'm afraid. Mentally I can't beat myself up over missing out on a potentially good trade because you just have to keep moving on. I am trying to focus and do the things necessary for success. It should be automatic at this point but my mind has many other things on it right now. I need to take this weekend to get it together and come back with a definite gameplan on Monday. This is the most interesting and most difficult game in the world. I need to be up for the challenge...

The Dow lost 28 points today on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were negative. It seems the volume has picked up a bit on the downside lately. We have really gone nowhere for a couple weeks and it is very frustrating. The sideways action is not making for any big moves or profits one way or the other. I am leaning towards the downside but have no clear signal. It's getting harder for me to sit it out but I must for now if I can. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rallied over 3 1/2 points. Last night I noticed that ABX was right at the weekly trendline. This is the same line that I am waiting the XAU to hit. I thought about getting some calls but I was too late. ABX had a very nice move and the volume increased. Perhaps the XAU isn't going to go all the way back to the uptrend line. I am going to wait though because I have missed this move and we might come back down again to thwart whoever got calls today. I would like to go out to April on those options. The volume was there though, so I can be positive about getting the calls for gold. Getting back to the overall market, I'm just going to have to wait for something decent to appear as far as a signal goes. Perhaps they will take one last stab at the upside and then that could be it. Just a guess. Mentally I'm doing OK I guess. Sleeping enough, getting to bed on time. I would like to do something in here somewhere but I must guard against trading just to trade. Looking back on last year I made most of my money trading gold. Perhaps I can repeat that again...

The Dow rose 60 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. And so it goes. My intuition tells me that this is the snapback to the uptrend line that was broken. But most of the technical indicators are not supporting this theory. I hope that I have the brains to just stay out here but I don't know. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I should just be patient and wait for a good signal. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose 2 points. This has the potential to be a good trade when it happens and if it happens. But I need to wait for it and I will. Getting back to the overall market, I have seen that the beginning of March has been negative for the last couple of years. We are in that timeframe right now. Employment report is out on Friday. Could be a market mover but lately it hasn't. Perhaps that will change this week. But this is a guess as are most things when it comes to the economic releases. Mentally I did not get a lot of sleep last night but I'm feeling fine. I am fighting myself here to not get jumpy and trade just because I haven't in a while. It is a hard thing to do. Also I feel as if the market will roll over here but I could be wrong. The same type of action occurred at the end of last month and then the market moved higher. There is a lot of money floating around and it needs a place to go. Tough game and I don't like fighting myself. I also need a good trade to get my confidence back. Perhaps the sidelines are best for now...

The Dow lost 104 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We are perhaps going to reverse the summation index to the downside today. I'll know more when the McClellan oscillator comes out. The options haven't moved much though. I might get short if we snap back to the uptrend line that was broken today but it will have to be on light volume. We do have some divergences but the market has been pretty good lately so we'll see. Gold was up $7 today but the XAU lost over 2 points. Not a positive development on the gold shares front. I will get long when we get to the uptrend line at around 130. We are 3 points away. The volume has been negative there so it will be a tough call. I really would like a good signal somewhere. I'll try and be patient. As I said before after doing last years taxes, there were way too many bad trades last year. I have to not trade just for the sake of trading. Sometimes waiting is a good thing and other times you miss the move. Tough game. Mentally I'm doing fine but need to get my head back into it. I've had some time off and it isn't easy getting back into the groove. But the competition is not going to cut me any slack. I need to focus and concentrate on what has to be done to be successful. It isn't easy but I know what it takes and it's just a matter of doing it. There is no one to blame for the lack of effort but myself. So I've just got to do the work and put my best effort on the table. Anything less isn't worth the time...

The Dow was up 35 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up higher and sold off right at the end. Don't know what that means. End of month tomorrow and the money should flow in again at the beginning of March. No clear signal but we are getting up against a weekly top line on the S&P 500. The XAU was down almost 5 points and gold lost about 4 bucks. I'm waiting for the uptrend line to be touched and that could happen this week if the action continues like today. So I'm a little scattered, marketwise at this point. Did not get a lot of good sleep last night. Mentally I need to get back in the groove of the market as I have been lax as of late. I did my taxes today and I made quite a few bad trades last year. There were way too many trade and way too many losses. On the plus side I did have some real nice gains occasionally. I will be trying to build on that. Gonna take it easy tonight and get back at it tomorrow...

The Dow was down 7 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive though and the overall markets were higher. It seems like the market wants to head higher. You can't deny that the breadth has been pointing towards higher prices. The only problem has been the volume, which has been lacking. The end of the month comes up next week. Money flow should appear at the beginning of March. We'll see. Gold soared $10 on a bombing in Saudi Arabia. The XAU rose 3 and a half points. Volume wasn't convincing there and I will wait for the trend line to be touched. Then I'll get long. Mentally I'm doing fine. I've been getting enough rest and I am simply waiting for a playable signal before I do something. Sometimes you've got to be patient and that was my problem with the last stupid trade I did. Hopefully I've learned something from that. I'm going to relax over the weekend. I'll check up on some charts and readings. But right now it looks like an upward bias.

The Dow lost 67 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 67 market would indicate. Not getting a clear signal so it's the sidelines for now. Gold was down around 5 bucks and the XAU lost almost 5 points and is right at the 50-day moving average. Still a bit away from the target of 130. Perhaps this market is through though. Time will tell but I will get long at the trendline. Kind of quiet in this shortened week so far. Mentally I'm feeling fine, not tired. I think the next trade will be a good one since the last few have really been terrible. I learning to move on. It has to be done. I'm not looking at any individual issues at this point but you never know. The week is almost over and I'll look forward to some more down time this weekend.

The Dow rose 68 points today on supposedly good inflation news. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light again. You can't deny that the trend is up though. No trades here for now. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. I have no good signals as of yet and nothing on the horizon that I'm really keen on. It is a good time to sit back and see what the markets say. I'll try to listen. Mentally I'm tired as I slept elsewhere last night and not all that good. I'm still trying to focus and I'm doing a better job of after market study. I will continue to try and get better. Doesn't look like any trades in the near term.

The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Seems like the internals are pointing to higher prices. But we do have the inflation report tomorrow and that could change things. We'll see. Gold was slightly higher and the XAU rose almost 2 points. I have done the research and it looks like the XAU is a buy under 130. It is currently above 140, so I'll wait. Short week due to the holiday. Mentally I hopefully have recovered from the horrible trading last week. You've just gotta move on in this game. No trades for now except for gold if it comes up. I'm waiting for a decent signal on the OEX. Otherwise I'm continuing my study of the markets. I'm reading the blue book and trying to prepare myself for the next trade. Nothing else on the horizon for now...

The Dow lost 5 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a uneventful expiration. A horrible week for me though as confidence is lost. Gold didn't do much and I will have to get the weekly XAU chart and plot my next move there. Just missed out on some big opportunities there in the first 2 months of the year. I expect it will be quiet there for a while and then pick up again. But who knows? As for the market, the summation index has turned to the upside. We will be overbought here shortly. I have no trades in mind at this point. I need to get it back together, mentally. My year has started off lousy, just like last year. I can't expect to be able to come back all the time but I usually do. And I will this time too. You somehow gotta believe in yourself even when you do stupid things. It is a long weekend and I will take the time to forget about all this stuff for a while and try to relax. I think I need to. But I will come back stronger than ever and take advantage of all that the markets have to offer...

Some days you have to ask yourself, how could I be so dumb? It happens and it shouldn't. The Dow rose 61 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. My order for puts that I left overnight got filled right away. It was a loser from the start and by far my worst trade in quite a while. What happened? The summation index was about to go positive. The downtrend line had been broken to the upside on good volume. Advance/declines had turned to the positive. And I bought puts? Even when I knew that I shouldn't have, I did. And now you see that the enemy is in the mirror. Stupidest trade to date. With only 2 days to go no less. I really don't know what to say. After all the years of trading I still do mindless things. Greed, I suppose. It was a 70% loss. It is the first trade of the year that never had a chance. I'm tired of going back to the drawing board. Mentally I just don't have it at the moment. I will continue the work but I will have to get my head back into the discipline required to have success. It isn't easy. You lose confidence in yourself. That is never good. Especially after this failure. I will move on but I'm going to have to get cautious and watch out for myself. A break is in order. I don't know what else to do. I do have an idea on gold but will have to wait for it to get back to the trendline. But really, just where do I go from here? Continue this foolish pattern of no brain trading? What happened to the discipline? Perhaps this poor outing is a wake-up call to get serious. The markets are there providing plenty of opportunities. I'm just not up to the task right now. I'm going to have to take a few steps back and analyze just what is going on here. To do that trade in the face of conflicting data was just plain wrong. There is no point in putting in the time to do the work if you're not going to listen to it. Again I am reminded about just how hard it is to be a success in this field. It isn't for most but it is my calling. I'll need to make some changes and get ready to do battle with myself again. There is no hiding from the fact that changes have to be made. A trade like this is truly ridiculous. I can only place the blame on myself, move on, try to do better the next time and forget it...

The Dow rose another 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We might be about to turn up on the summation index. Then why do I have an order in for puts? Am I an idiot? Maybe. We are overbought on the 5-minute, 15-minute and 60-minute charts. I am looking for a drop off of that. And with 2 days left I will not get greedy and will take whatever profit, if there is any. This is to be a quick, short-term trade if at all. The new Fed chairman speaks again tomorrow. It could be a market mover. We are near the top of the channel. But on the negative for this trade we have broken the downtrend line on good volume yesterday. There is usually a snapback to the line violated. It could have been today but I'm not sure. We may just run up into the expiration, that is a possibility. Inflation data on Friday and I may not even be in this thing by then. I may also gain my sanity and cancel this trade tomorrow morning. I will have to check the closing data. Perhaps I am just ansy to make a trade before expiration. I should ask myself, is this the best trade to be making right now? Things to ponder into the evening. Perhaps long is just the way to go here into March. Mentally I need to get some more sleep. My mind isn't totally sold on this trade. Only 2 days left? I suppose maybe I missed what I could have done and should wait until next month. Always can change my mind I guess. I'll check things tonight and see what happens...

The Dow jumped 136 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. My puts got stopped out for a 50% loss. I kinda knew that was coming yesterday. My inertia killed me. I should have been up early today to sell them. I also had opportunities to buy calls and did not. I would have been prepared for a move either way and I wasn't. I was lazy and although I was up early, I just went back to sleep. I wasn't up to the challenge of trading. It is my own fault. I probably should just sit it out for the rest of the week but I'm thinking f getting some puts again if we stall out here. New Fedspeak tomorrow and that could be interesting. Gold didn't do much and the XAU is still away from the weekly uptrend line. When it gets there, I'm getting long. Could take a while since the sell-off has been severe. But I think longer term it's a viable trade. My ineptitude has really killed my performance so far this year. Each trade I've entered was profitable at some point, yet I'm stuck with 3 out of 4 being losers. My trading tactics have been lame. I need to see what is going on for what it is, not what I'd like it to be. It is always easy to look back and say I should have done this or that. I'll recover and trade on though. I'm not believing this is the start of some big rally. I could be wrong but the advance/declines have been pathetic throughout the recent trading action. We have really been rangebound and only the Dow is near a breakout through the top. Sometimes, like I've said before, the Dow will lead but it isn't a strong leadership. Anyway there are 3 days before expiration and I might have to try something else. Inflation data on Friday. Maybe a play on that. But also just sitting it out might work too. There might be a sell signal after tomorrow though. Tough to move on after a bad, losing trade but it has to be done. Mentally I'm actually not feeling too bad except for my inaction this morning. Lazy doesn't cut it in any line of work...

The Dow lost 26 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. My OEX puts are right about where I bought them and I am getting extremely worried about this trade. We were down over 60 points and came back in the last hour. That isn't good for the short side. The call/put ration was bearish. That isn't good short term either. I've got to see some downside tomorrow but I don't know if it will come. Perhaps we will go sideways into the expiration. Maybe the volume had to do with the blizzard over the weekend. I don't know. I have a stop-loss order in but I would like to make some money. The summation index is pointing down and the weekly charts are bearish. I don't know if it's enough to save this trade though. Gold got killed again and the XAU was down over 3 points and has broken all support. I need to check the trendline on a weekly basis. We could be there. Mentally I'm tired because I haven't felt too well the past day or so. Just took a hike but the markets loom large. The new Fed president is speaking on Wednesday and Thursday. The market could be waiting for that. Not sure where we go but am sticking to the downside for now. We are back at the downtrend line and if it holds all will be well for the shorts. If not, I'll try and switch back to the longside. It ain't easy...

The Dow gained another 35 points today on what looks to be average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The market made quite a comeback as we were down 60 points in the morning. The puts I own at one point tripled but now they are right back where I purchased them. Tough game. I actually thought about getting some calls as we rallied right back up to the downtrend line. If we break through those puts are dead. I think if we do get through there I'll get some calls but it's a hard decision because the technicals aren't really signaling a buy. The summation index is still pointing down and I'm going to stick with that. I think Tuesday will be the day to the downside according to what I've got. It's getting through Monday that will be the test. A lot of volatility here and that could help prop up the option prices. My trading tactics need work though. Gold was down big, as much as it was up yesterday. Crazy market there for now. Should of had some puts but what can I say? It is just the toughest business in the world. The challenges are not for the faint of heart. The discipline and work required for success are enormous. Mentally I need to continue to focus on the positives and do the work. My entries have been good and my anticipation of the direction has been excellent. My timeframes have been off as we are moving much faster, both ways, than I anticipated. I still think the downside is the way to go until that downtrend line is broken. Could happen on Monday or not. I will try and relax over the weekend but no guarantees there.

The Dow gained 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were up 80 at one point. We made it to the downtrend line and when we got there I bought some OEX puts. I have a stop-loss order in to cut the loss if we go higher tomorrow from here. The puts are slightly in the black but I don't know about this trade. We need some more positive days before this will work I think. But the market will do what it wants. Intermediate term we are getting oversold so I can't see a lot of downside from here yet. But I do think the lows will be broken, I just don't know when. Tomorrow will be interesting. The trade I missed would have worked out well and I would be out of it today. I lament missing that one. Just didn't feel good about doing it, like I said. Aftermath of the previous bad trade. It doesn't matter now and I need to do the work on this one. We'll see. Gold was up about $14 at on point today but the XAU only gained a couple points. The volume wasn't there either. Perhaps a rest is in order there. I will wait for it to pull back to the uptrend line and get long there. I need to get the chart on a weekly basis. The summation index is still pointing down and that was the basis for this trade. That and the downtrend line in effect. Trade data out tomorrow, could be a market mover. I wouldn't mind seeing a light volume up day. Next week is the key for this one, maybe. Mentally I need some rest and will get to bed early tonight to deal with whatever happens tomorrow. The markets are fickle and we are almost into expiration week. However I think this was the right thing to do and I was waiting for the touch of the downtrend line today. We got it and now the future awaits and what it brings...

The Dow rose 108 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive but not a lot for an up hundred market. My order for calls wasn't filled. And so it goes. You somehow must persist in the face of frustration. It's tough. I am now looking to get some puts at the downtrend line. But I'm not sure that this is the right play. The market had to rise here. I know it sounds all knowing but looking at the numbers that was what had to happen. I don't know how long it will last but it actually could be the start of a decent move. However the overall market is weaker than the Dow. Sometimes the Dow will lead, I've seen it before. I don't know if this is one of those times. You can only know after the fact. I'll short it at the downtrend line and if it breaks to the upside, I'll get out. It's all I can do at this point. Perhaps I got too cute trying to get in but I really think my fear of losing kept me from getting filled. It is the aftermath of the last lousy trade coming back to haunt me. The time was right but I just didn't get it. Now we'll see what happens tomorrow. Hopefully we go right up to the line. But there is more room to the upside. Gold was down a bit, the XAU tried to rally but couldn't. Perhaps will make a play there but I doubt it for now. I need to get more sleep, mentally I'm not feeling well after missing this trade. I have to somehow put it behind me because there is still time to make some money in this options cycle. It pains me to just miss out on trades more than it does to lose money. It just goes to show you how much work there is left that needs to be done...

The Dow lost about 50 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I had an order to buy some calls during the day but pulled it back. It is really tough here as we have somewhat broken support but the market is oversold. I am confident we are going to get a decent up day before the end of the week. I left in an overnight order but it is going against what I think is right. Then why do it? There is no reward without some risk here. I have a price that probably won't get filled. The market isn't tanking here it is working its way lower. The summation index is pointing down and that is the trend for now. Even if this order doesn't get filled I'm prepared to get some puts for next week, so I can wait if necessary. But I think there is a long trade here. It will be a short one with a tight stop-loss order in if it gets filled. The action was in gold today. Did I mention I had just started to look at the puts? Well I was too late as gold plunged almost $20 today. The XAU lost over 10 points. This is unheard of! It just goes to show you that markets will do what they want, when they want. There was profit to be had for sure but I just didn't keep a good enough eye on it. I did not pay attention as I was busy with the overall market. That happens. But more work must be done. There are no excuses. Mentally I did not sleep enough and am tired. I have to be ready for tomorrow and the rest of the week. It is a tough game and that cannot be forgotten. I need to put forth the effort necessary for success. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow gained about 5 points on light Monday volume. Advance/declines were positive. I was thinking about getting some calls today and I kind of think that is the play here. But the summation index is pointing down. That is stopping me. Most of the technicals are overbought and the put/call ratio favors a buy. Perhaps I'll do it tomorrow or maybe it is too late. Tough call. I'd like to short gold or some of the gold stocks here. The XAU was up 4 points and gold rallied just a bit today. It looks like a sell on the RSI for the XAU, ABX and NEM. It's hard to do though because this market has been so strong and the money just keeps going in there. But it has to take a rest sooner or later. Not sure how to go about it there but I'm keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm doing the work required, checking the charts etc. I'm a bit tired today but just took a nice refreshing walk to clear my thoughts. There will be an opportunity to make some money here in the next 2 weeks. I am ready and will try and not make the same mistakes as last month. My trading tactics will be better. It's my analysis that has to be correct this time. I think I have a handle on it but who knows. The market will go where it wants to. I'll watch and listen and we'll see what happens...

The Dow lost another 58 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 60 market would indicate. We are at a tough point here, tradingwise. The weeklies are bearish but the dailies are flashing a buy signal. I would like to get long here but just aren't sure it's the right thing to do. I will ponder this over the weekend and decide from there I guess. The summation index is now turning down I believe. The trend overall is now lower. But a long trade managed properly could be the right play for the short term. Then get short again at the downtrend line. That would be the scenario in a perfect world. But this is the market and anything can happen. I'm getting some buy signals from various indicators and sells from others. Perhaps sitting on the sidelines would be prudent but you don't make any money that way. Gold was down a bit today and the XAU lost almost 5 points. I would like to short this on a rebound. Will that happen? Don't know but I think it has a chance. Tough market though and you've just got to pay attention there. I also would like to see the inflation numbers in a week or so and get some OEX puts beforehand. I do have some ideas but when and if to implement them are the questions. Mentally I'm doing fine now that the dentist has passed. I'm ready to trade and just need to make up my mind on what to do. It's dangerous and risky at this point. I'll have to regroup over the weekend and see what happens. Short is ultimately the way I think I should trade it but who knows? Crosscurrents are tricky. This is one tough market to trade at the moment. I'll try and relax over the weekend but no guarantees there...

Dow down 100 points with 2 to 1 negative advance/declines. Volume good. It looks like I have missed this move. Did have an order in but did not get filled. Perhaps will try and get short if there is a bounce tomorrow. Summation index is probably headed down now. Short post due to dentist. Not sure about the duration of this sell-off because we will be oversold tomorrow. Might just wait for a solid signal. We'll see...

The Dow was up about 90 points today. Advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 90 market would indicate. Volume was good. The Dow has broken through the latest downtrend line but the other indices haven't. If the Dow is leading us higher we could be near the end of the rise. I'm not exactly sure but who is, ever? I would like to get short here but there really isn't a clear signal. I think I'll just have to wait but we'll see what happens tomorrow. The XAU was down a bit but I didn't see that the puts moved too much. I guess I'll have to start keeping an eye on the dollar again. GE had a big reversal on heavy volume and that helped turn things around for the Dow. Not that I'm going to play GE again anytime soon. I would like to do something before the employment report but who knows? I need to play it smart and that is not always the thing to do. It sounds like it is though. I guess I could try and be patient and wait for a move to 1300 on the S&P 500. It is tough to try and trade on mixed signals but the market will do what it wants. Mentally I'm doing good and got plenty of rest last night. However I need to focus on what needs to be done here. The discipline isn't what it needs to be. I'll work on it...