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Tuesday, March 07, 2006

The Dow gained 22 points today on somewhat light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. Yesterday we were down around 60 points on good volume. I missed posting due to playing a round of golf. The summation index has rolled over and is pointing down. However we are shot term oversold and a bounce is due. Also the McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today, probably below -150. So I would expect a bounce but I think the trend is down and might get some puts on a bounce. We'll see. Gold lost around $5 today and the XAU dropped below 130. I had some orders for calls in but they were not filled. This is the area where I expect support to come in. The weekly trendline is here. But there is always a chance the line could be broken. Gold itself doesn't look all that good on the charts. I have some open orders in for the XAU and for ABX. The XAU is just a short term play for March, with ABX going out to April. I was confident about this trade before so I'm going to chance it. But I know full well that this could be the end of the run in gold also. I'm playing that it isn't just yet. ABX looks like the better trade, chartwise. I might try some OEX calls tomorrow also if the opportunity presents itself, although I feel the puts might make more sense after a bounce. But it's hard to tell what might happen and the market will always do what it must to frustrate the most. This is an interesting time in the markets and I sincerely hope that I'm up for the challenge...

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