Thursday, September 11, 2025
There was another signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions and we got that move today as the Dow jumped 617 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The inflation data came in about where expected and the market took off higher from the start. New record highs again for Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The S&P continues to remain short term overbought. Sellers are no where to be found. I did place another order for the SPY September puts but once again canceled it in the morning. This appears to be the wrong idea with the current market but I'm leaving in an open order overnight. If we continue with a good move up again tomorrow I'll have to forget about the puts. If we start to level off, then this idea might have a chance. With no overhead resistance on the major averages, a rally may be starting. If the RSI on the S&P daily chart gets above 70% tomorrow, that will put the end to any ideas of a negative divergence. With the summation index now moving higher the path of least resistance is up. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The gold shares continue to soar. The XAU was up 4 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was a bit below average again. GDX is extremely short term overbought. The volume has started to decline on the rise though so it is probably getting near the end of this tremendous run up. Sour grapes that we didn't get to go along for the ride but as always the market doesn't care. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators are oversold but not completely. Six days left in the September option cycle. I'd like to get some kind of trade in before expiration but must be wary of trading just for tradings sake. Tomorrows price action should give us an idea of what to do going forward. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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