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Monday, September 15, 2025

We had a gap higher at the open and spent the rest of the day in positive territory as the Dow gained 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher again. The overall market did much better than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing again at new all time highs. The NASDAQ led the way up and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains in its short term overbought condition. One of our indicators is flashing a sell signal however it might take another day or so for it to work. I did adjust my open order last night for the SPY September puts and it was filled at the open this morning. Todays price action gets me thinking that the market still wants to go higher in the short term as it can stay overbought for extended periods of time. But I'm also looking for selling on the Fed announcement if the trade can stay alive that long. The stop-loss order is already in place. The trade as it stands now is showing a very small profit. Gold was up $35 on the futures to a new all time high above the $3700 level. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 4 3/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was below average. GDX has been extremely short term overbought for an extended period of time. At this point I would only be guessing as to when that will end. It is not normal price action and I'm pretty sure that it won't end well. As money continues to pour in there, enjoy the ride. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are starting to move higher. If that continues stocks would move lower and volatility would increase. I'm not so sure that is what will happen near term even though I own the SPY puts. Money continues to find a home in stocks and liquidity doesn't seem to be an issue. Four days left in the September option cycle and we are in the next trade. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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