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Monday, April 17, 2006

The Dow lost 63 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold. The McClellan oscillator is giving a signal for a big move within the next 2 days. I think it will be to the upside. Do I have the guts to play it? I don't know. Probably should have bought some calls today. Inflation data on Wednesday could be the key. Or perhaps not. Gold soared $18 today. The XAU was up over 6 points. Oil closed above $70. NEM was up around 3 points. The calls I own are in the black. Now what to do? Earnings are coming out on Thursday. But I already have a nice profit. The earnings should be good though. But there aren't any guarantees. Gold is way overbought here also and out of whack with reality I think. It has a lot to do with the rhetoric from Iran lately. But this could turn out to be a great trade if it all falls into place on Thursday. If not, it could blow up in my face. It is never easy. I would really like to get some ABX calls here too because the volume is confirming the move higher. But perhaps I'll have to wait for some type of pullback at this point. Back to the OEX. Maybe I can get some calls tomorrow and dump them before the end of the week. It's risky but what isn't in this game? I'll have to check the charts. My attention must go to the NEM trade also. I'll need to check what the inflation number expectations are. Mentally I'm doing good, getting plenty of rest and I just returned from a beautiful hike. I need to focus my energy on what is going on here for the next few days and then relax when all is said and done. I think there are some great opportunities here, right in front of me. Whether or not I can take advantage of them will be the key.

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