Headline risk reared its ugly head today and the Dow fell 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Trouble in Turkey as its currency is losing its value rapidly.  It is a repeat of the Greek fiasco from early last year.  The trouble in Turkey had been on the market radar recently but today was the day the market decided to react.  I don't know if this puts a cap on the stock market or if it is just a passing fad that will go away next week.  We'll have to see how it all plays out.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over o it may be too late for the SPY puts.  I am leaving my open order out there though.  GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up a little.  Gold finished the day flat despite a huge run higher in the US dollar.  The flight to safety is on for the dollar but not for gold.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Seasonality with its usual positive bias has yet to show up for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summer doldrums came to an abrupt halt today.  They didn't last long anyway and have been hard to find this year.  My idea of new all time highs before the expiration in a week seems to be out the window as well.  The VIX has now spiked over 13.  This tells me that the run we just had into the tens for the VIX will be short lived and is probably over.  My hope is that the market sees some kind of final rally attempt next week before we roll over for good here.  But that roll over process might have started today and the puts will remain pricey form here on out.  I can't say for sure what will happen.  The coming days will tell the story.  If we just keep moving lower it's possible that my original thesis of the high being in place from January could prove correct.  If we move back to new all time highs, then that thesis was wrong.  If we somehow do make a nominal new all time high, there still could be a double top in place on the S&P and a rollover still might happen.  Right now we'll just have to keep an eye on what happens over the weekend and see how the market reacts to events on Monday.  I do not think that the problems in Turkey are going to bring the market down with it but I could be wrong.  It may lead to bigger troubles down the road.  I'll simply keep an eye on things and hope there will be a spot for me to get those SPY September puts.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We drifted around for much of the session and then fell towards the close.  The Dow lost 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were basically even.  The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow.  The summation index continues sideways.  Today had the feel of the summer doldrums as has the week so far.  I'm still looking for some upside into the expiration next week.  We are working off the short term overbought condition of the market before we head higher is my prognosis at the moment.  The small stocks are acting better than the big caps and the VIX remains low.  I am keeping my open order out there for the SPY September puts.  However I will probably adjust it as we move forward.  The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of a new all time high.  Hasn't happened yet and it's what comes after that if it does for the key to where we're heading.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold dropped a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar moved higher.  The XAU and GDX closed slightly lower but well off of the highs for the day.  The dollar looks to be breaking out above its recent consolidation and that should spell more trouble for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  My GDX September call trade is a big loser.  Without a stop loss order in place after the trade was filled was the mistake made here.  I did not anticipate that the gold shares would simply remain oversold for weeks on end.  But that does not excuse the lousy trading tactics of not using the stop loss.  That is my fault alone.  but it's been that kind of trading year for me so far.  The stock market has been weaker at the end of the day for the past couple of sessions.  To me that isn't a bullish sign.  However I do think that we'll at least make another attempt at a new all time high in the S&P during the upcoming expiration week.  That would give me the opportunity to try the September puts if all goes according to plan.  The market rarely cooperates though.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

A day of hanging around for the most part as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Not a lot of action in price today.  We did get a signal in the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  We didn't get it today so we'll have to see if it shows up tomorrow.  Still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY September puts.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today finally had the feel of the summer doldrums as not much happened in prices or on the news front.  I'm still thinking that things will be run higher into option expiration next week and that the S&P 500 will hit a new all time high by then.  I could be wrong and often am.  However barring some outside headline event, I do believe that will be the near term path for stocks despite the overbought condition.  We are in a seasonal weak period for stocks.  Combine that with the overbought condition and you can see the basis for trying the SPY puts.  Going out to September should give the trade enough time to work if my order does get filled.  It is also a seasonally strong period for gold and that trade has blown up in my face by having gold stay oversold for weeks on end.  so as usual there are no guarantees when it comes to seasonal trades.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading action. 

Still moving up as the Dow tacked on 126 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has turned back up but not with any conviction yet.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow today.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for the S&P.  Getting closer to a new all time high there but haven't made it yet.  I did place an open order for the SPY September puts today.  We'll have to see some more upside for this to be filled.  I would like to establish this position between now and option expiration on the 17th.  GE gained a few cents and the volume is still light.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar traded a bit lower.  The XAU fell a point, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was about average.  These indexes had one day downside reversals as they opened up but closed down.  The gold shares have been decimated and are completely oversold and staying that way.  If they are any indication about what else may happen here, the US dollar should be about to move higher past the resistance at 95.  The gold shares out perform on the upside for gold and the opposite on the downside.  That is what we are seeing now.  I don't have to tell you that my GDX September calls are dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No summer doldrums yet for the stock market this year.  Just waiting for new highs in the S&P 500 and then we'll see what happens from there.  8 days left in the August option cycle and I do not anticipate doing a trade in the August cycle.  An extra week for the September option cycle so the premiums will be a bit pricey.  I do want to attempt the September SPY puts though.  My ideas haven't paid off yet this year and the trading has been brutal so far.  This losing GDX call trade doesn't help with the confidence factor either.  But you've just got to keep moving on in the game and that's what I intend to do.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Grinding higher today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside for most of the stock indexes.  The small stocks are acting well here and I expect new all time highs set in some of the indices in the near term.  The VIX is below 12 and looks like it could head below 11.  I'm looking out to the SPY September puts for the next trade.  However I am thinking that perhaps things will be run higher into the expiration August 17th.  So for now I'm trying to be patient.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls are big losers as I did not put in a stop loss order as I should have.  Not a lot of money in this trade but the percentage loss will be high.  I do not think that the seasonal rally is going to show up this year as the fundamentals are negative and I don't see any change in that.  The fact that the gold shares have been oversold and have remained that way for weeks is another factor that has negated the usual rally seen in gold at this time of the year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The beginning of August and all seems clear for stocks to move higher in the coming days.  I'll be looking for new all time highs in the S&P 500 before option expiration.  We are getting pretty close.  Getting short term overbought for the S&P but that doesn't mean we can't remain that way and pull higher.  For now I'll watch and wait.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and headlines.

Moving higher as expected as the Dow gained 136 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn back up but it hasn't happened yet.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow today.  The jobs report was a bit less than expected but it didn't matter.  That too was expected as the short term technical indicators were turning around.  The VIX is now below 12, which says to me there will be some more upside in the near term.  We may just hit a new all time high on the S&P 500 soon.  I'm really not a believer of this rally but you cannot argue with price.  I'll start looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are pretty pricey.  GE didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly on the futures as interest rates ticked lower.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  I'm still waiting for the seasonal rally here.  Could be a long wait and my GDX September call trade is already a big loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got through the data and announcements of this week pretty much unscathed.  Earnings have come in pretty good after the recent debacle in the tech sector that sent the small stocks lower.  Where do we go from here is the question that I don't have an answer for at the moment.  I'll do the work over the weekend to try and find out.  There's still a long way to go in the summer but only a couple of weeks remaining in the August option cycle.  At this point I'm inclined to wait and see if we hit a new all time high in the S&P and then short it from there.  But that's just a Friday afternoon idea in the summer.  More work will have to be done to see if that is even a viable strategy.  No summer doldrums yet.  Asia was mixed but European stocks finished higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I thought that today would be quiet ahead of the jobs report but it was anything but that.  The Dow lost 7 points today but came all the way back from being 200 points lower early on.  Other indices had one day upside reversals.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average.  We opened as if the market was about to fall off a cliff.  But buyers quickly stepped in to bring stocks all the way back and then some.  The small stocks led the way and that is bullish.  The VIX once again held its 200 day moving average.  The market had a feel yesterday of wanting to move higher as the short term technical indicators started to turn up.  We'll see if there is ant follow through tomorrow.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $10 as the US dollar was higher today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional downside moves on average volume.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are completely blown out to the downside and have remained oversold for a few weeks.  There is no seasonal strength as I had anticipated and my GDX September calls are so far gone in the red that they will not be coming back.  Barring a complete reversal in gold, this trade will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After todays price action I can only expect higher stock prices tomorrow.  It may not matter what the employment report says.  I also get the feeling now that we could be about to explode to the upside as the shorts will have to cover if we get going higher.  That's just a guess on my part.  The technicals have turned up for the major stock indices.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower, with China leading the way down.  We'll see how the weeks closes out tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is back to trending lower.  The NASDAQ was higher as the overall market fared better than the Dow.  The Fed had no surprises and the market really didn't do much after that.  We are oversold on the small cap indices and it looks like the indicators want to turn around to the upside on the big caps.  I canceled my open order for the SPY August puts.  I may revisit this idea going forward but for now I'm going to let the employment report pass and go from there.  I do still favor the downside here but think that we'll see some kind of blip higher first.  I could be wrong.  GE lost all it gained yesterday on light volume.  Perhaps my idea of a double bottom is wrong here but it sure looks like that to me.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The fundamentals for gold remain bearish and the positive seasonal effect hasn't showed up.  The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX had a fractional loss.  Volume was average.  My GDX September calls are solidly in the red and this trade looks like it will be a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The jobs report on Friday will be the next market mover.  I'm guessing tomorrow will be a wait and see affair.  The VIX ticked up a bit today and the Bollinger bands are starting to tighten on the daily chart there.  So we should see something rather big in the market pretty soon.  The surprise to me would be if it was to the upside.  We'll see.  The gold shares are oversold and staying there.  That certainly isn't bullish.  At this point about all I can do is wait for a bounce to cut the loss.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We ended the month on a positive note as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  Price action today came off of the highs set earlier in the session.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow but it should be a non-event.  I'm leaving my open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Another day like today and it might get filled.  If I do this trade I would like to be in it before Fridays jobs report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like there could be a longer term double bottom in place here.  By longer term I mean that it has taken six months to form.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher as well.  The XAU was slightly higher and GDX was basically unchanged.  No love for the gold shares remains the theme here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  Just another day in the summer for the market.  We had some snap back in the oversold small stocks to end the month.  Will we see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow?  Has this short term decline run its course already?  Always plenty of questions in the game with the answers to come shortly.  The VIX rolled back down today and did not breach the 200 day moving average to the upside.  That can be viewed as a positive for the bulls.  I'm still in the camp that a bigger decline is coming here for stocks.  However if the RUT goes up from here and makes a new all time high, I'll change my view.  Hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say about things tomorrow.       

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 144 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  It's no secret that we're heading lower.  Rallies can be sold in my humble opinion.  I do have an open order for the SPY August puts out there.  Whether or not it gets filled will depend on if we get some kind of snap back rally or not.  It may just be too late and we simply decline from here.  End of the month tomorrow, the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  So there will be plenty for the market to chew on going forward this week.  The VIX has popped up to its 200 day moving average.  The small stocks have rolled over.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold fell a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX September call position is solidly in the red.  Will the seasonality ever kick in?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no doubt that the tone of the market has changed to favor the bears.  We are in the seasonal weal period for stocks.  All they need to head lower is an excuse.  I can only hope for some kind of rally this week in an attempt to establish a short position.  I do not want to chase things here but I'm pretty sure that sellers will have the upper hand for a while.  I am a believer in the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily S&P 500 chart.  So for now I'll just wait and see if my open order gets filled in the near term.  The gold trade is out to September so I'll give it a little more time.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the month of July tomorrow. 

GDP came in pretty good as expected but the Dow lost 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ getting smashed.  The short term technical indicators are now rolling over.  I do believe that it's time to look at the index puts on any bounce from here.  RUT got clobbered today as well and closed below its 50 day moving average.  I think what we have here is a case of this is as good as it gets.  What will drive the market higher from here?  Earnings have been hit or miss, with some stocks being taken out to the wood shed.  We are in a seasonally weak period for stocks as well.  No summer doldrums today as the VIX surged up to its 200 day moving average.  I'll be taking a long look at the SPY August puts next week.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  GE has lost its leadership role for the market and I may simply stop reporting it.  Gold lost a few bucks as both the US dollar and US interest rates had a small decline despite the robust GDP report.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX September calls remain solidly in the red.  The seasonally strength that I was looking for hasn't showed up yet.  This trade may very well end up being another loser at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish topping pattern on it after todays price action.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over as well.  I will of course look things over again this weekend but the evidence suggests that index puts will be the way to go from here.  Although I was looking for new all time highs after the price action early this week, the market has changed.  I will try and change with it.  The signs are out there that a decline is in the works and has already started for the small caps.  So I will be keeping a close eye on things as we start next week, hoping for an entry point for the puts.  If we simply keep falling from here then it will be too late for me.  We've got the end of the month next week followed by the employment report on Friday.  There's also a Fed meeting in the middle of the week but that should be a non event.  No change in rates is expected.  Asia was mixed again last night with Europe higher.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend but I'm pretty sure that we'll be heading lower from here.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

Another mixed bag today as the Dow gained 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with losses in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Facebook stock got slammed today and that led to the overall market weakness.  We'll get the first look at the 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow and I expect some movement off of that.  Which way is the question.  The short term technical indicators are still overbought for the S&P.  This condition won't last forever but trying to predict the rollover is impossible.  GE was little changed again on average volume.  Gold fell $9 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU dropped 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Once again the gold shares have acted worse than the metal itself.  This is bearish as the gold shares simply remain oversold.  Tomorrows GDP report could be the clincher for a downside break down completely.  Mt GDX September calls are solidly in the red and it may be time to simply take the loss here.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT turned back up today and that may be a good sign for the overall market.  But we didn't really get any good follow through to the upside from yesterdays gains with the exception of the Dow.  Yesterday it looked like we were on our way to new all time highs for the S&P.  After today it doesn't look like that so much.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  We'll be keeping an eye on things for sure.  There's still a possibility of a positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But it will have to get moving to the upside soon or that divergence won't mean anything.  The action in the gold shares kind of says that it won't.  Europe rallied and Asia was mixed in last nights trading.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The Dow continued its climb and gained 172 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small stocks leading the way.  All signs now are pointing to higher prices despite being overbought on the technical indicators.  The volume even though being average has picked up to the upside from the weak levels seen before.  The RUT isn't leading here but the NASDAQ set a new all time high today.  Earnings are coming in strong and the market certainly likes that.  The S&P 500 is within shouting distance of setting a new all time high.  That would negate my theory that the top was seen in January for the S&P.  It would also set aside my idea that we completed a five wave up pattern from the lows of 2009.  Basically all my ideas and trades since the beginning of the year would be wrong.  That kind of makes sense because I've had loser after loser trading the SPY.  We'll have to see if the S&P sets a new high.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on average volume.  My GDX September calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN bounced back strongly today and now has a bullish daily candlestick implying more gains to come.  Although the Dow is far from its all time high, the S&P is almost there.  The NYA remains pretty far from its all time high as well.  But the small stocks continue to act well.  That bodes well for the overall market.  It does appear that the S&P 500 will make it to new highs in the coming sessions.  Whether or not to get some SPY puts when it does is the question that I'm considering at the moment.  Perhaps going out to September would be the right idea here.  Or maybe the market just gets going higher and doesn't look back like it did in January.  Never any easy trades in this game.  The VIX remains low and that's a plus for higher prices as well.  So we'll see.  Asia was up and Europe down overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Kind of a mixed bag today but the Dow had a nice gain of 197 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has started to trend lower.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The TRAN and the RUT were negative as well.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts at some point but would like to see some more upside towards 2850 on the S&P first.  Earnings are coming in good but we are not seeing a broad rally.  The big cap stock indices remain short term overbought.  The indicators for RUT have rolled over and RUT is usually a market leader.  I'd be cautious on the long side here.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold finished little changed as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  My GDX September calls are in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The day started out strong on the back of GOOG earnings but then drifted lower for much of the session.  There were no headlines out of Washington today.  We all know that won't last.  More earnings on the way and then the first look at second quarter GDP on Friday.  The VIX remains low so I'll be in a wait and see mode for now.  The atmosphere has a summer feel to it.  Not quite the doldrums but certainly a slow motion to things at the moment.  Europe and Asia rallied in last nights trading action.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow fell 13 points today in lackluster trading.  Volume was light.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues its sideways action.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ did have one day reversals to the upside.  So the overall market is acting better than the Dow.  Plenty of earnings due out this week to get things going one way or the other.  So we'll see.  The S&P did close above the 2800 level.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No love for GE here.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  The gold shares fared worse than gold itself and that's bearish going forward.  The seasonal strength in gold hasn't surfaced yet.  My September GDX calls are now firmly in the red and I may just have to get rid if them even with over two months to go in this trade.  The fundamentals for gold remain poor here with the rise in US interest rates.  Although the gold shares are both short and medium term oversold it appears that they are simply staying that way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and I do think that we'll see higher prices for stocks this week.  My thinking now is that I'll wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back up to 2850 and try the SPY puts there.  We've seen somewhat of a summer rally since the end of June.  Perhaps it can keep going to hit my price target for the puts.  We do remain short term overbought on the S&P.  There's still a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily gold chart.  But if the action of the gold shares today is any indication, this divergence will not pan out as planned.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Pretty quiet as far as expirations go as the Dow lost 6 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  I'm thinking that the summation index is moving sideways before it heads lower.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The market remains both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way.  Plenty of earnings due next week and we'll have to see what the reaction is to the numbers.  Some economic data due out next week capped off by the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Friday.  The tone of the market has seemed to slow here in the middle of July.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  The earnings were OK but I guess they didn't like the talk from the CEO.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar took a hit today, possibly because Trump complained about the rise in US interest rates.  But the Trump effects on the markets are generally short lived because he changes his mind from one day to the other.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The gold shares certainly did not react to Trump.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My GDX September call trade is showing a small loss.  I'm inclined to hold this trade for some time, since there's an extra week in the September option cycle.  I also would like to give a chance for the seasonal strengthening pattern to go into effect.  So I'll be holding on for now.  There is also a potential positive RSI divergence that just took place on the daily chart.  If that actually happens, this trade should turn out to be a winner.  RUT is stalling here but it may simply be a pause before it moves to new all time highs again.  A lot will be determined next week as the big tech stocks are due to report.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts.  Asia was up and Europe down in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with some kind of idea as what to do next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow shed 134 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index is moving sideways.  RUT was higher today.  The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  The S&P 500 remains above the 2800 level for now.  We're either forming a top here or pausing before an attempt at new all time highs for the S&P.  I am still looking at the SPY August puts.  No hurry to purchase though.  GE was basically flat but volume picked up.  Gold bounced around today and ended up losing $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed again.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost over 1/4.  Volume picked up going lower.  There's really no chart support here for gold and the gold shares.  My GDX September calls are now in the red.  Gold will have to turn around here soon or this trade will be dead.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX perked up a bit today and has plenty of room to move higher as it remains oversold.  That would seem to place a better chance that we're forming some type of top here.  Option expiration tomorrow so we'll see if there's any fireworks with that.  The market seems to be searching for direction in the past week and a half.  I'll try and remain patient for now but I think that the odds favor some kind of drop here versus another leg up rally.  I could be wrong and often am.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and take things from there.  Asia and Europe were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Yesterday was a rare missed day for the blog as I was called away from the market with a couple of hours left in the trading day and did not return until late at night.  We all know that the market waits for no one.  Yesterday the Dow gained 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We finished above the important 2800 level on the S&P 500.  Gold finished little changed and the dollar was a bit weaker.  More on todays price action a little later. 

We had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high.  The VIX is back to the 12 level but I don't think it will go much lower.  But what do I know?  Maybe we are going to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well.  The Fed chief spoke today and the market liked what it heard.  I'm still looking at the SPY August puts.  We remain overbought for the S&P both short and medium term.  GE was off about 1/4 on average volume.  Gold took a hit today with the futures down a dozen.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on better volume.  The gold shares acted much better than the price of gold and that is usually a positive.  But gold has broken its near term support here, so I can't really feel too bullish.  My open order for the GDX September calls was filled.  So the next trade is on.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out if the usual positive seasonal effect takes place.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We finally had a decent close above the 2800 level for the S&P 500.  This occurred despite poor earnings from NFLX, which sent things lower at the open.  This can only be seen as a positive, as the market rallied on bad news.  Or it may be the positive expiration week bias in effect.  Whatever the reason or excuse, you cannot deny the price action.  Once again the only caveat is the low volume but that may be a summer byproduct.  I would like to get some SPY puts for next month but I suppose I'll wait and see if we make it back to the all time highs first.  At this point we're overbought and staying that way.  The gold shares are just the opposite, oversold both short and medium term.  Asia was lower and Europe rose last night.  We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.   

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index should turn around today but it may be just sideways for now.  Or not.  RUT was lower and it has been the leader so far this year.  The TRAN took a hit and sits right on its 200 day moving average.  The major stock indices are overbought and the VIX is oversold and that is a recipe for a decline of some sort in the near term.  I could be wrong.  It is options expiration week though and the positive bias may have an effect on prices.  I am looking at the SPY August puts.  GE was flat and volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower as was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX September calls just a touch.  This order is close to being filled and I may just go ahead and have it filled tomorrow.  However if the overall market rolls over here, I would expect the gold shares to go with it and that would turn this idea into a losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been hanging around the 2800 level for 3 days and can't seem to make up its mind what it wants to do here.  I am more of a believer in the puts here than the calls despite options expiration.  But I am not going to attempt a trade with 4 days left in the July option cycle for the July SPY options.  The risk is  not worth it in my humble opinion.  Plus the volume has been pretty weak lately and that may be the summer doldrums effect taking place.  That would mean the market may just meander this week.  So for now I'll keep an eye on GDX and the SPY August put prices.  Europe and Asia were weaker overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the trading overnight.

A positive Friday the 13th for the Dow as it gained 94 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up but not with conviction.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The S&P 500 closed just above 2800.  It seems as though we're at the moment of truth for the S&P and whether it will get through 2800.  The volume on the rise has been pretty light and it will have to pick up to make me a believer in the rally going through 2800.  Option expiration week is upon us and that is usually a plus for the bulls.  We remain short term overbought.  GE was off a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped $5 and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  I adjusted down my buy price for the GDX September calls again.  The bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candlestick chart says next week should see some downside.  Gold is oversold on a daily and weekly basis.  But it needs to hold the 1235 to 1240 level or I don't know how far it could drop.  I'm still willing to attempt the GDX trade here based on the seasonal factor but there's no guarantee that it will work every year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the headlines but haven't had any news of late to affect the stock market.  Earnings are coming out and they're expected to be good.  I'm now looking at the SPY August puts.  If my thesis that the rally from 2009 is over, we shouldn't hit new all time highs in the S&P 500 going forward.  RUT is generally a leader and it has begun to stall here.  There is also a potential negative RSI divergence on its weekly chart.  The VIX got below 12 today and is oversold.  Hopefully going out to August will give this idea some time to work.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend.  Light volume remains a concern.  Asia and Europe showed gains overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Yesterdays decline appears to be a one day wonder as the Dow climbed 224 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to trending up.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time high today and that bodes well for the bulls going forward.  The summer rally lives on.  Perhaps we'll get the usual positive bias during expiration week and a run up into next Friday.  The trade tariffs were only good for a day of decline.  Earnings are the focus now and we'll get some from the banking sector tomorrow.  Stocks remain overbought on a short term technical basis.  The S&P 500 is right at the important 2800 level.  Perhaps we'll get through tomorrow.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was up a little and so was the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  I adjusted down my GDX September call order.  I do think that maybe next week will be the time to make this purchase.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Buyers showed up today and that is encouraging from the long side.  The volume lately has been pretty weak and that is a concern.  It may just be the summer factor and that wouldn't be a problem.  But if it isn't because of summer then we have the issue of a light volume rally.  Those can never be trusted.  So we'll see how it goes going forward.  I'm still in the rally from 2009 is over camp.  Europe and Asia rebounded last night too.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Tariffs returned to the news and subsequently the Dow dropped.  The most watched index shed 219 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index should start to stall here and turn sideways if not lower if stocks keep dropping.  That will be the question going forward.  Was today just a one day event or have we begun to roll over once again?  The S&P 500 turned away just shy of the 2800 level.  That is a key to watch to see if we can break that to the upside.  The small stocks may be putting in short term double tops here as well.  So even though it's summer, we are at an important juncture for the market in my mind.  The VIX is still below the 15 level but we're bouncing off of oversold readings on the short term indicators.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things as they develop going forward.  GE was off around 20 cents on light volume.  GE may have a short term double top on the daily chart as well.  Gold was lower as commodities dropped hard today, most likely tariff related.  The precious metal futures dipped over a dozen as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX fell almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  I adjusted my open order for the GDX September calls lower.  I may be early on this trade because todays price action was pretty bearish.  If it holds for the week, the weekly candlestick chart for GDX will have a bearish engulfing pattern.  That implies even lower prices to come.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over here.  So I may adjust the order again overnight depending on what gold does before the US open tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well or enough.  I think that we'll know soon enough if the summer rally is really here or that prices remain in a trading range.  I haven't given up on the idea that the rally from 2009 is over.  That is my main premise and I am looking for a substantial drop in stocks in the months ahead.  I may even begin looking at the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately we are back to the headline risk environment and that is unpredictable.  It makes the trading harder than usual and it's a challenge to begin with.  Today could have been worse for stocks so we'll have to see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia had sell offs as well.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines tonight and see where things go tomorrow. 

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 143 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The advance got narrower today with the Dow leading the way.  I did think about getting some SPY July puts today because this seems like a good spot to try them but I did not place an order.  The small stocks were laggards and the RUT was negative.  So perhaps we will see some double tops here in the smaller stock indices.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX is now oversold so we may see some selling in stocks tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume today.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on light volume.  I did place an order for the GDX September calls today.  We'll need to see some weakness in the gold shares for this to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'm willing to take the chance here.  It appears that I may not be alone as selling in the gold shares today was met with buying.  One caveat is that the US dollar is oversold and due for at least a bounce in the near term.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is getting ever so close to the resistance of 2800.  That would be the logical place to attempt something on the short side.  Perhaps I'll give it a shot if and when it gets there.  The S&P is getting short term overbought but as we've seen before it can stay that way during rallies.  It does seem as though we are right now in the traditional summer rally.  So like any trade, nothing is for sure and the risk is out there.  Inflation data in the next couple of sessions and perhaps they will be market movers.  The short term technical indicators for gold are about mid-range here, so it could go either way in the near term.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The gold share indices are more overbought though.  I'm relying on the seasonal strength for gold to kick in at some point for the GDX call idea.  Europe and Asia were higher again overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The rally is on as the Dow soared 320 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Trade tariff fears have moved to the sidelines as buyers have emerged.  The volume remains light but the VIX is well below  the important 15 level.  It stands at 12 and change for now.  Perhaps a trade for the SPY July puts will set up in the coming days.  However the short term technical indicators are not completely overbought just yet.  So for now it's a watch and wait period for me.  GE was up a dime on what passes for average volume now.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  They did have a one day reversal to the downside though as they both opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps we'll get a chance to purchase the GDX September calls in the coming days.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some of the small cap indices are knocking on the door of new all time highs.  The S&P 500 is getting close to the resistance at 2800.  What happens there will be the key as to whether we attempt a run at the all time highs in the S&P.  I'm still in the camp that the rally that began in 2009 is over.  So we'll have to see what happens in the coming days.  Earnings season is back upon us and the earnings have been pretty good lately.  We'll have to see if they're enough to lead the market to new all time highs.  We'll get inflation data this week as well.  For now we'll wait and see if the small caps are making double tops or not.  We should know the answers soon.  But it does feel like a summer rally is in progress and higher prices are in the cards.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.     

Higher to close out the week as the Dow gained 99 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were once again shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The jobs report came in about where expected and the market rose from the first hour on.  The small stocks led the way and that's a positive.  The volume is light but we may simply chalk that up to the holiday week but it is something to keep an eye on.  The VIX closed below 14 and that is probably more important than the volume.  The summer rally is on.  GE gained 3/8 on light volume.  Gold lost a couple bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the GDX September calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the bulk of the major US stock indices have found support at their 50 day moving averages and are now poised for near term gains.  The short term technical indicators are rising with room to go before reaching overbought.  I don't think that we're going to new all time highs for the S&P 500 but I could be wrong.  I do think we are in the traditional summer rally though.  2800 will be the key level to watch for the S&P if and when we get there.  If the volume remains light on the way up, it may be the place to try the puts.  If volume picks up and breaks through that level then perhaps the all time highs will be challenged.  We'll see how it goes as the days progress.  Gold had a bounce this week and we'll see what it does from here.  I'm in the bullish camp here for a seasonal push higher.  Whether or not I can trade it will depend on the price action from here.  Asia and Europe were higher in last nights trade.  Still two weeks to go in the July option cycle.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally today ahead of tomorrows jobs numbers as the Dow climbed 181 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  Todays price action seems to say there will be a positive market resolution to tomorrows employment report.  We'll see.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now turned back up with room to roam higher.  The VIX closed just below 15 so tomorrow will be a key.  If we drop below 15 on the VIX and stay there then the summer rally is on.  If not it will more of sideways to down.  To me it looks like the market is poised to go higher.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  It did finish well above its lows for the session.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on a bit better than average volume.  Getting overbought for the short term here but there's room on the indicators to go higher.  My hope is that I haven't missed the longer term gold share call trade here.  I'm going to wait and see if we drop back a little here before placing an order.  I'm considering the GDX September calls but the option premiums have already moved up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The volume is lighter this week as many players are off to the beaches.  However the market goes on regardless of vacation plans.  My thinking now is that we are going to move higher.  The fact that we were able to completely turn around the negative action of Tuesday cannot be ignored.  The market goes where it wants to.  I'm hoping for some weakness in the gold shares because it looks like the seasonal strength for that group has begun.  I do not want to chase it and I may be wrong about it as well.  But the volume and price action in the past week seems to be saying it's time to get on board.  We should get some movement in gold and the US dollar off of the jobs report.  I'll be up early in the morning to take a look at that.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish out the shortened trading week tomorrow.  All eyes will be on the employment numbers.

A one day reversal back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 132 points in a holiday shortened session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  Not sure what that means but it should turn the summation index sideways.  The usual positive market activity around July the 4th did not take place today.  The market activity remains sloppy.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The VIX got below the 15 level and abruptly turned back up.  We may be back in that range again for the VIX where 15 is the bottom.  If so expect more volatility going forward and lower prices.  That seems to be where we are headed.  GE was flat and the volume light.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose a dozen.  $1240 has held for now.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good for a shortened session.  We saw gold drop yesterday but the gold shares didn't react.  Today we saw both gold and the gold shares move up.  We also saw the gold shares run up two days ago when gold barely moved.  What it looks like to me is that money is starting to come into the gold shares.  The seasonality strength time period for gold is coming up.  I am now pretty sure that the GDX September calls will be my next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't want to make a lot of the price action today but it is concerning.  With the jobs report on Friday, this could be a week that you need to pay more attention than usual for a holiday week.  We'll have to see how the foreign markets do over the next couple of sessions before Thursdays open.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll enjoy the 4th of July holiday tomorrow and be back here on Thursday.   

A one day reversal to the upside to start the month as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 35 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a positive.  The positive holiday bias looks like it will work this year.  Could this be the beginning of a summer rally?  I'm not exactly sure about that but it's possible.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but there is plenty of time left in the July option cycle.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold dropped over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  I am looking at the September gold share calls as the next trade.  The seasonality sets up for this trade in the time frame form now until then.  If the gold shares can get back down to all the way oversold in the next couple of weeks, I will attempt this idea.  This may or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market did manage to come back today but there really wasn't any catalyst for the reversal.  Foreign markets got slammed and that helped lead the US lower early on.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are still oversold but they have turned back up.  RUT held its 50 day moving average and the TRAN had a good day.  So all in all I would say that in the short term we should move higher this week.  Volume will most likely be lighter than usual due to the holiday.  We'll deal with the employment report on Friday.  Europe and Asia were sold off overnight.  We'll have a holiday shortened session tomorrow in the US.  I'd expect to continue to drift upwards.  We'll see.

The Dow managed to hold on to a gain of 55 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market dropped in the final hour to erase much of the days gains.  We were up close to 300 points on the Dow early on.  The price action has been sloppy lately.  The VIX remains above the 15 level and that spells volatility.  Perhaps today was the day to try the SPY July puts.  Next week would ordinarily be slow with a positive 4th of July holiday bias.  But with the market acting weak lately I suppose anything can happen.  GE was off about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was only up a few bucks despite a big drop in the US dollar.  The gold shares perked up though.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  Was it the end of the quarter or month type of buying or is this the beginning of what I am looking for?  I'll be keeping a closer eye on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain oversold.  We have yet to see any sustained bounce upwards.  I'll be looking for some upside before trying the SPY July puts.  We still have 3 weeks left in the July option cycle so there is plenty of time to attempt a trade.  I'm inclined to just let next week go by but we'll have to see how things go.  The trading is never easy.  There's also the possibility that the summer doldrums show up and that is not the type of environment that enhances speculative trading.  So we'll see.  For now I'll check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in overnight trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a much needed bounce today but the Dow did finish off of its best levels with selling in the final hour.  The Dow rose 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  However with the summation index heading down, the path of least resistance is lower.  The VIX is still above 15.  I think that I will let the July 4th holiday pass next week before I consider attempting another trade.  Markets could be thin next week as traders may take the whole week off.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  I suppose the ideal situation would be a light volume rise to the halfway point and a roll over there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off $6.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had negative prices activity for the past couple of weeks.  Now it could be a set up for the usual summer rally or it could be the beginning of a corrective phase.  We had not seen any sustained selling for a while and now we have had it.  So what happens from here will have a direct impact on what goes on this summer in my opinion.  Looking back on the first half of the year, my trading has been abysmal and I am currently in the middle of a prolonged losing streak.  I have made a trading tactics adjustment with the stop loss orders but it hasn't really helped except with limiting the losses.  I've dug myself quite a hole to get out of but there is still plenty of time this year to turn things around.  We'll see.  Asia and Europe were lower last night.  We'll close out the week, the month and the first half of the year tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 165 points on good volume.  We were up at one point close to 300 points.  The advance/declines were a bit over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Today looks like it would have been a good time to get some SPY puts if you were nimble enough.  I wasn't.  Oversold and staying there for stocks and that will translate into lower prices going forward.  The VIX remains above the 15 level.  As long as it stays above there, things will be volatile.  No real news to speak of for todays movement as the market is weighing on itself.  We did have buyers in the morning but sellers reappeared with a vengeance.  I suppose we'll see how low we go.  I would like to get some SPY July puts but it looks like it's too late for that.  GE was up about 1/4 and the volume is still heavy.  It finished well off of the highs for the day though.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar climbed.  The flight to safety is taking place in the dollar but certainly not gold.  I do not know the reason why but the normal inverse relationship between these two is in place.  However gold is usually viewed as a safe haven but not so far this time around.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is not a positive.  The Dow is trying to hold the 200 day moving average but closed below it today.  Ditto for the TRAN.  Could the Dow be the leader lower here this time?  I'm still inclined to be thinking that this won't be some kind of blow out downside move because the small stocks have not led the way lower.  This line of thought has served me well in the past.  We are now short term oversold on the technical indicators for all the major stock indices.  I'd like to see a more than one day bounce for the indexes but the market may not cooperate.  Perhaps next week as the July 4th holiday period is generally bullish.  So we'll see.  For now I'll just have to let this week pass and go from there.  Asia sold off last night but Europe closed higher.  We'll keep an eye on tonights price action.  

The market tried to bounce today but is was pretty anemic.  The Dow rose 30 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  The Dow closed 100 points from the high of the session.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I still think that we're heading lower going forward.  The VIX did drop today but we're still over the 15 level.  Like I said before, I'm not sure what is going on here but sellers have returned.  I'm not sure if traders are locking in first half profits or what.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold.  The price action today was sloppy in my humble opinion.  GE saw a spike on comments from the CEO.  It rose a point on very heavy volume.  It appears to have formed a double bottom on the daily chart.  The measuring objective would be 18 if that's the case.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX ended little changed though.  Volume was very light.  There remains no interest in owning the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN is oversold and trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average.  It is sometimes a leader so I'll be keeping my eye on that.  But I do feel as though the tone of the market has changed after Monday.  I'll be looking to short any SPY rally if we get one.  I'm also considering sitting on the sidelines until there is a decent technical signal as well.  It's been a rough first half of the trading year for me.  Sometimes a break is what's needed to have a better frame of mind for the trading endeavor.  At least my trading management has come around but booking small losses still adds up.  For now I'm probably going to let this week go by before considering the next SPY trade.  Next week will have the July 4th holiday smack in the middle.  The usual time around July 4th is normally bullish for the market.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The market got clobbered today but did manage to finish off of the lows.  The Dow fell 328 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We were off close to 500 points during the session.  Trade tariffs will be the convenient excuse but it's more than that.  The Dow has been down for 9 of the last 10 trading days.  That says something and it isn't positive.  My original thesis of the market reaching its top in January will hold true for the big caps.  I don't see them coming back to new all time highs this year.  The S&P 500 is oversold now for the short term.  The short term technical indicators for the small stocks have rolled over.  I'm not exactly sure what the story is here but rallies can now be shorted in my opinion.  GE was off almost 1/3 on good volume.  Gold and the US dollar were both slightly lower.  The XAU fell 1 1/2 while GDX was off fractionally.  Volume was light.  Oversold for the gold shares and I'm looking at the longer term calls still.  Haven't made up my mind on whether this is a viable trading idea yet or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I got stopped out of my SPY July call trade early this morning for a 30% loss.  I can deal with that because without the stop loss order the pain would have been worse.  Once again my trading in the SPY remains terrible.  Perhaps a vacation from that is in the cards going forward.  We should see an oversold bounce here soon.  The quality and duration of the bounce will tell us a lot about the markets overall condition.  So we'll see.  When the market starts to act like it did today, caution is advised.  The VIX surged to almost 20 and that is the highest reading since early April.  Whether or not it has more to go, I don't know.  Where the market goes from here, I don't know.  We do have the end of the month coming on Friday.  There's also a few readings on the economy due out as well.  We're obviously oversold here and some kind of bounce is due.  Asia and Europe were both lower as well.  It seemed like a worldwide retreat from stocks on Monday.  So we'll see where we go tomorrow.     

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 119 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ negative.  This is a change from the recent market activity.  I'm not sure why the volume was so heavy today.  Maybe summer vacations are starting early.  My SPY July calls are still only showing a very small profit even after todays gains.  The VIX retreated today but the tone of the market is in the process of changing in my opinion.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the small stocks as well.  I now don't think that the call buying strategy here is appropriate.  I really should not hold on to this position too long despite the long length of time left in this option cycle.  GE got a bounce and was up almost 1/3 on good volume.  It's trying to hold on to its last line of support.  Gold was just slightly higher despite weakness in the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4.  Volume was average.  The weekly Bollinger bands for GDX are the tightest that they have been in years.  When this breaks out you can probably just jump on board because the move should be worthwhile.  The question is which way is it going to go?  I'm still leaning towards the bullish cause and am still keeping an eye on the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I have the SPY calls here and the market just isn't acting as well as it has in the recent past.  The small stocks are not the leaders here lately.  Perhaps that will change next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower and are not completely oversold as of yet.  I'll need to see then turn around to fell better about this trade.  We did get some buying today as expected but the market dropped off rapidly in the final half hour.  That isn't a positive.  I suppose I'll hope for some early strength next week and most likely get out of this trade.  I do have a stop loss order in if we simply start the new week lower.  The trading is never easy.  What looked like a good idea yesterday when I took this SPY call position, doesn't look as promising today.  I'll look things over again this weekend and take it from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

The Dow continued its losing streak today, dropping yet another 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will move the summation index lower.  The overall market was weak today along with the Dow.  It seems as if now the buyers have stepped back.  Where previously we had no sellers, we now have no buyers.  That said, some of my short term technical indicators are now oversold and I did adjust my open order for the SPY July calls today so it would get filled.  They are showing a slight profit.  We are overdue for at least a short term bounce in the indices.  I'm not sure that we'll get much more than that but perhaps the summer rally will begin.  Unless the market is about to simply fall out of bed here, I feel pretty good about the odds for success with this trade.  GE dropped over an 1/8 on good volume.  We are about to break the near term support here.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged on very light volume.  There's no interest in the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm now in the next trade.  I did not expect to get involved this early in the expiration schedule but I think the opportunity is now.  I do not expect to hold on to this trade that long because the market action here to me is peculiar.  The Dow is very short term oversold here and hasn't been positive for eight days in a row.  But with the small stocks not participating in the decline yet, I feel as though the overall bullish bias remains intact.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely oversold but they are in the area that has turned things around recently.  If that is the case again this time around, this trade should be profitable.  But with the stock market, you never know.  The market has a mind of its own.  However I do believe that the odds are in my favor for this particular trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Dow was lower again today as it shed 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues sideways.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were both positive again.  The relative strength remains with the small caps and as long as that is the case you cannot be too bearish on the near term market outlook.  RUT set another new all time high today.  I did place an open order for some SPY July calls overnight but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving it out there.  However it might be too late for this idea s the ideal buy time may have passed.  GE fell a few cents on pretty good volume.  GE is being kicked out of the Dow.  There's no love for GE.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures and the US dollar ended the day little changed.  Gold has fallen below the $1280 level.  No love for gold either.  But I am still considering the longer term gold share calls on a drop to the 200 week moving average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow had now dropped for 7 straight days.  We haven't seen that type of price action for a while.  Yet the overall market remains strong.  The VIX had a one day spike and now we're back below the 13 level.  I really think that the market wants to move higher here but the short term technical indicators do remain overbought.  I'll leave in the order for the SPY July calls for another day and take it from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another downer for the Dow as it lost 287 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading sideways.  Trade tensions again as the tariff talk heats up again.  The overall market remains much stronger than the Dow despite falling here.  As long as that is the case, I do not expect a full on rout.  I am considering a short term trade for the SPY July calls but we may have already passed the optimum point for that.  I'll check the charts again tonight and go from there.  GE fell 1/4 on good volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT continues to shine and since it's usually the leader this decline in the overall market should not last long.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I may attempt a trade here but it would strictly be short term in nature.  The option premiums for July remain prohibitive.  The market has had a gap down at the open for a few days in a row now, only to make up ground throughout the trading session.  You will know the decline is ready to really get going when the buying during the day dries up.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower to begin the week for the Dow as it lost 103 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We started off lower for all the major stock indices today but there was buying throughout the session.  Trade war talk over the weekend contributed to the selling in my mind.  The NASDAQ made it all the way back to the black.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the Dow but not the small stocks.  RUT set another new all time high today.  I'm still in favor of higher prices going forward for now.  But we are way overdue for some type of sustained decline.  GE dropped a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume.  $1280 is an important level for gold.  If we don't hold up here perhaps the 200 day moving average at $1235 will hold.  But we haven't broken $1280 yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  We've made it through the June option expiration.  We've rolled into the July option cycle but the premiums are extremely high.  I'm going to have to wait for a decent signal before attempting the next SPY trade.  The overbought condition is keeping me from attempting the calls here.  However I haven't been successful lately with the SPY puts.  So on it goes.  I'd expect the summer doldrums to turn up at any time as well.  So for now I'm going to watch and wait.  We've got the Fed head in a panel discussion on Wednesday so that may move things one way or the other.  Not much on the economic data this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight.  

Lower in general today although we did finish off of the lows for the session.  The Dow fell 84 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  Once again the overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that's a positive.  The VIX closed below 12 despite some volatility today.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought.  That sounds like a broken record lately.  Over and over the technical condition remains the same.  Along with the small stocks having the best relative strength.  As long as this continues, the trend will be for higher prices going forward.  This will eventually change.  When, is the question that needs to be answered.  GE was off about another 1/4 and volume picked up.  Gold took a hit today, down $25.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was very heavy.  It is important for the $1280 level to hold for gold or we will probably be going a lot lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On to the July option cycle with an extra week in it and high premiums.  It looks like I'll be watching and waiting now for a while before the next trade attempt.  The market remains incredibly resilient.  News one way or the other is not affecting things and all dips are being bought.  My thinking is that the summer rally has already begun.  Whether or not the S&P 500 sets new all time highs remains to be seen.  However I will say that with RUT having already gotten there, perhaps my theory of the end of the bull market from 2009 is wrong.  If the S&P sets a new all time high then the theory will be dead.  But it hasn't happened yet.  RUT is usually a leader both up and down though.  For now we can look at the market that it is overbought and staying that way.  That much we can agree on.  I don't have any solid ideas for trades right now but I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Todays drop doesn't change my mind about that but I will wait until we're oversold on the indicators there.  That could take a couple of weeks or so.  For now I'll try and remain patient.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

More bouncing around today as the Dow dropped 25 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has now turned sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  As long as that is the situation I'm expecting higher prices going forward.  The S&P 500 has basically moved sideways for the last week.  We'll wait and see which way it breaks out.  Odds favor moving up despite the chronic short term overbought condition.  No matter the news, the market always seems to have buyers.  Any selling is for a day or two at the most.  Until that changes, the trend is up.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up.  GE did not make it up through its 50 day moving average.  Gold rose about $5 on the futures despite the US dollar having a huge gain today.  The ECB meeting today had a dovish tone and the Argentine currency is crashing.  Perhaps we saw some flight to safety moves today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher today on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive market bias was in full swing this week as the market had numerous reasons to sell off but did not.  Some of the small stock indices set new all time highs today.  Money continues to flow into US stocks.  You cannot fight that.  The VIX is around the 12 level.  Volatility has shrunk and we about to roll into summer.  It appears that the summer rally started in the beginning of June.  How long it lasts, who knows?  We are going to roll into the July option cycle on Monday.  There is an extra week in that cycle so the premiums are expensive.  I will probably remain on the sidelines until July but we'll see where the market takes us.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the option expiration as we close out the week tomorrow. 

Finally some downside today after the Fed as the Dow lost 119 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index may start to head sideways here.  We bounced around after the Fed announcement but sold off again in the final half hour.  Could this be the beginning of some type of sustained decline?  Maybe.  We're still short term overbought on the major index technical indicators.  I did not attempt the SPY June puts again today but I did think about it.  There are some signs that things are getting just a little too bullish.  The problem is that the July option cycle has an extra week so the premiums are pretty pricey right here.  So I suppose I'll just have to remain on the sidelines for now.  We'll get some noise from the ECB tomorrow.  That could move things around as well.  GE was off almost a dime on light volume.  Gold finished up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have been consolidating for months.  The prudent thing to do is wait for the break out and then jump on board.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  2 days to go in expiration week.  Today the overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  The small stocks continue to act better than the big caps and that has been an ongoing theme.  That is bullish.  As long as things remain this way the path of lest resistance remains up.  The S&P 500 has yet to get back to its all time high set in January.  So there is still some chance that my underlying theory of the completion of a 5 wave up pattern here is correct.  But for now signs point to higher prices and my thesis for the S&P may prove to be wrong.  If we get a summer rally that will probably be the case.  The market is overdue for a pause in my opinion and now is a good a time as any.  The VIX still remains low though and below my threshold of 15 for a breakout of volatility.  I'll be simply watching and waiting for the time being.  Asia was mixed and Europe as well overnight.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow.

An up and down session of waiting around in my opinion as the Dow lost a point and a half on light volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index continues higher.  As usual the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  That has been the pattern for quite some time, with the small stocks out performing again.  The trend is up and there doesn't seem to be anything in the way of higher prices.  The media buzz is bullish.  The Singapore summit was viewed as positive even though it appeared to be more show than substance.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow.  I'm looking at the SPY June puts but I'm in no hurry to purchase them.  Perhaps if we get extremely oversold tomorrow on some of the indicators, I'll give them a try.  But it does look like the powers that be are looking to run things up into the expiration on Friday.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Just below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold lost 3 bucks as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we'll wait and see what the Fed has to say.  Technically the market remains short term overbought.  I've noticed that when some of the intra-day indicators roll over that the market really doesn't go down that much.  That is bullish activity.  the declines are shallow to sideways and the market recovers to move higher.  RUT set a new all time high today.  It has been the leader and the signal has been good.  The signal for a big move from the McClellan oscillator on Friday did not pan out.  TRAN has just broken out above the near term resistance.  All signs point to higher prices for now.  A move higher in NYA would further validate the rally.  It is probably a good idea for me to simply watch and wait.  Asia was higher with Europe mixed to lower overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has in store for us tomorrow.

Barely higher today as we sold off in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was a bit stronger than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator gave another signal for a big move on Friday within the next two sessions.  We'll see if that comes to fruition tomorrow.  I am still considering the SPY June puts but today may have been the time to get them.  However with just 4 days left in the June option cycle I'm really not inclined to make another trade this month unless things line up just right.  That may or may not happen.  For now I'll simply sit back and wait for the Fed.  We've got the meeting of the US and North Korea early tomorrow.  Any news good or bad could move things in the short term.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow has had a nice run but not to new all time highs as the small cap indices.  We're short term overbought on the major stock indexes any way you look at it.  We've been overbought for a little over a week and it hasn't mattered.  There's plenty of news and data out this week.  Perhaps volatility will pick up.  With the trading losses that I took last week I'm a little gun shy at this point or I would have tried the SPY puts again today.  It's probably best for me to just sit back and stay on the sidelines.  Like I've already said, unless things really line up about perfectly, I'm not going to take another loss this week.  We'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  All eyes and ears will be on the Singapore summit tomorrow morning.

The market continues to climb as the Dow rose 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  No news or data to really speak of but the sellers have vanished.  I got stopped out of my SPY June put trade for a 35% loss.  I didn't want to get stopped out before the weekend but the market goes where it wants.  That makes it two losing trades this week as my ideas are going nowhere.  Will I try this trade again next week?  I'm not exactly sure at this point.  It just isn't working as we have remained short term overbought for days.  At the rate I'm going when it finally does work I'll be owning the SPY calls.  My confidence obviously isn't where it needs to be.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was flat and the US dollar edged a little higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the loss.  At least I get the management of the trade correct again by sticking with a stop loss after the fill.  It's been a horrendous first half of the year so far for my in the trading department.  Yet I'm still here thinking about trying the SPY June puts again if we get to 2800 on the S&P.  However with the weekend upon us, I may simply have to take a step back and hit the sidelines next week.  Julys option cycle has an extra month, so the premiums will be high.  I am still considering the longer term gold share calls.  Perhaps next week after the Fed will be the time to try that idea.  But that's just a guess at this point.  The small stocks are still leading the way here and as long as that's the case I suppose long is the only way to go.  Why I haven't listened to that, I don't know.  Some of the small stock technical indicators have been overbought for a month.  So I do think that some type of drop is imminent.  But will it be next week?  It would have the positive expiration bias to fight for one thing.  We've got the US/North Korea summit on the geo-political front to deal with.  Also the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Inflation numbers and retail sales as well.  So there will be opportunities for short term trading to be sure.  Unfortunately for me, the short term trading is not where I do well.  I've got that to deal with as well.  So perhaps the sidelines is where I'm headed but you don't make any money there.  But you don't lose any either.  I'll consider the choices over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as the discord of the weekends G-7 meetings took center stage overseas.  The US market was able to ignore it after the futures sold off overnight.  There are no sellers for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  The small stocks were negative today and the S&P 500 had a slight loss.  RUT was lower and the VIX had a little spike.  Perhaps we're at a near term high or maybe not.  Tomorrows price action could tell a lot.  My position in the SPY June puts is showing a small loss and I may be stopped out tomorrow.  It wouldn't be the end of the world but I do think that there's some weakness coming.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain overbought.  GE was up about 1/8 on OK volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today had the feel of simply a pause in the action for profit taking.  There wasn't any major economic news and the recent geo-political worries have faded.  There is a G-7 meeting this weekend but nothing is expected to come out of that.  We've got the US/North Korea summit next Tuesday followed by the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  Perhaps we'll get some market movement out of that.  For now we'll have to see how we close out the week tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll finish up the first trading week of June tomorrow.

The Dow powered ahead today and roared higher by 346 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  It appears that the summer rally has begun early.  All signs seem to point to even higher prices going forward.  Perhaps we will just run things up into the expiration next week.  My SPY June put order was filled.  Shortly thereafter the market began to move up.  I decided to sell that order right back for about a 15% loss and move on to a higher strike price, which I did.  That trade is now showing a loss.  It really looks like this is the wrong idea overall.  The Dow was much stronger than the overall market but that doesn't seem to matter.  We're still overbought and staying there for most of the major stock indices.  The VIX is now below 12, which is a new low since the decline earlier this year.  Small stocks indexes are setting new all time highs.  Perhaps all the bullishness in the media is actually warranted.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  For some reason GE is not participating in the rally.  Gold finished the day little changed as the US dollar lost a little ground.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The yield on TNX rose.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So I'm back in the next trade but now feel as if I maybe should have just stepped aside from this SPY put idea.  I at least bailed out of the first trade right away, which now appears to be the right move.  However backing that up by trying to move up to a higher strike price doesn't look like it's going to work.  There's still 7 days to go in the June option cycle but at the rate we're climbing it won't matter.  We'll see how the rest of the week goes but I don't anticipate any kind of turnaround in this environment.  But the market does go where it wants and we won't stay overbought forever, will we?  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Pretty much sideways today as the Dow fell 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the small sticks still leading the way.  I adjusted my open order for the SPY June puts.  A run to 2760 on the S&P 500 should be enough to get the order filled.  Overbought and staying there for most of the major indices.  The VIX remains below 13.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks with the US dollar slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market has the feel of simply marking time here so far this week.  It's as if it is simply on hold until we get the Fed announcement in a week.  The summertime feel is already here.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time closing high today along with QQQ and NDX.  RUT as well.  With these indices leading the way it appears that higher prices are inevitable.  Then why try the index puts?  Well we are pretty far above the 50 day moving averages for the small stocks.  We also will not stay overbought forever.  Add in the bullishness that I'm hearing in the media and I think that at the right price the puts are worth a shot.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A good start to the week for the bulls as the Dow rose 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The VIX is now below 13.  RUT hit a new all time high and the NASDAQ appears to be ready to break out.  The S&P 500 is the laggard here.  I did place an open order for some SPY June puts again if we see a rally to the 2760 level.  However with the trend so strongly in favor of higher prices now, I may cancel this order tonight.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  But that can continue as prices move up.  The TRAN was lower today but that may not mean anything.  GE was off over 1/3 on good volume.  GE closed back below its 50 day moving average.  Gold was off a couple bucks while the US dollar was a little lower.  The XAU and GDX were both a bit lower on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only nine days left in the June option cycle.  I'm trying to figure out if the powers that be are simply going to run things up here into expiration.  It is a possibility.  The light volume today may or may not be a concern.  We do already seem to be in summer mode for the market.  I am trying this SPY put trade because we are overbought and the media seems rather bullish at the moment.  The VIX is also lower than it has been lately and could be due for a snap back to the upside.  There is some economic data due out this week but the real story may lie in next weeks Fed announcement and the markets reaction to it.  There's also the geo-political background of the US/North Korea summit on the 12th.  If it actually happens.  So there are potential market movers but they are not until next week.  I'll look things over again tonight and decide what to do with the open order.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the late night developments. 

The back and forth continued today as the Dow rose 219 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks continue to lead the way.  The VIX is now back below 14 and all signs point to a bullish case for higher prices going forward.  The employment report was a little better than expected and the market was higher from the get go.  I did get stopped out of my SPY June put trade when the market opened.  It was a 25% loss and I can live with that.  The timing going in wasn't as good as it could be and the subsequent decline was shallow.  There's still two weeks left in the June option cycle and I may try this trade again despite all the bullishness.  But I don't see a clear signal at the moment.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold lost $7 as the US dollar edged higher.  Rates ticked up a bit as well but did not have a noticeable effect on gold and the dollar today.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on average volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite another trading loss.  I'm taking solace in the fact that at least this time I managed the trade correctly.  There really wasn't any chance to take a decent profit for the duration of that trade.  I'll simply have to wait and see what my next decision will be.  The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are making there way back to overbought levels.  The Bollinger bands are starting to constrict which means that some type of move is in the works.  Now the question is will this take place during the June option cycle or not?  We've still got the Fed meeting before expiration and now the US/North Korea summit appears to be on track as well.  Geo-political concerns from Italy/Europe have been put aside for a day.  As long as the small stocks are leading the way it is hard to get too concerned about a substantial decline.  However with the overbought short term readings in most of the major averages, it's also hard to try and trade this from the long side.  I'll have to wait for what I deem to be the next signal and take it from there.  I also may just sit things out for a while because we are on the cusp of summer and the potential doldrums could be coming up.  I will look things over this weekend and decide what to do or not do going forward.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.