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Tuesday, July 10, 2018

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 143 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The advance got narrower today with the Dow leading the way.  I did think about getting some SPY July puts today because this seems like a good spot to try them but I did not place an order.  The small stocks were laggards and the RUT was negative.  So perhaps we will see some double tops here in the smaller stock indices.  Hasn't happened yet.  The VIX is now oversold so we may see some selling in stocks tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume today.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on light volume.  I did place an order for the GDX September calls today.  We'll need to see some weakness in the gold shares for this to be filled.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the right idea but I'm willing to take the chance here.  It appears that I may not be alone as selling in the gold shares today was met with buying.  One caveat is that the US dollar is oversold and due for at least a bounce in the near term.  So we'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 is getting ever so close to the resistance of 2800.  That would be the logical place to attempt something on the short side.  Perhaps I'll give it a shot if and when it gets there.  The S&P is getting short term overbought but as we've seen before it can stay that way during rallies.  It does seem as though we are right now in the traditional summer rally.  So like any trade, nothing is for sure and the risk is out there.  Inflation data in the next couple of sessions and perhaps they will be market movers.  The short term technical indicators for gold are about mid-range here, so it could go either way in the near term.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  The gold share indices are more overbought though.  I'm relying on the seasonal strength for gold to kick in at some point for the GDX call idea.  Europe and Asia were higher again overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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